CT Rain Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 To be saying this 100% won't happen is still lolz imo It could pull a Bill I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 It could pull a Bill I guess Weenie suicide? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 To be saying this 100% won't happen is still lolz imo Yes probably....but I'd feel pretty comfortable saying it 99% won't happen. I'll give it a legit 1 in 100 shot...maybe even 1 in 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Yes probably....but I'd feel pretty comfortable saying it 99% won't happen. I'll give it a legit 1 in 100 shot...maybe even 1 in 60. I like those odds. Eventually a freak storm track will occur with the absolute perfect synoptic setup. I would bet against it every time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 What odds would you give for a Cat 1 or better in SNE per year? 1 in 20 or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 I like those odds. Eventually a freak storm track will occur with the absolute perfect synoptic setup. I would bet against it every time though. Agree...38 was one of those--wonder what the models would have done with that one if it were today....imagine if it we didnt have it happen in 1938 and it was today instead....would anyone believe the GFS or Euro showing it turning NNW and moving at 50mph??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Agree...38 was one of those--wonder what the models would have done with that one if it were today....imagine if it we didnt have it happen in 1938 and it was today instead....would anyone believe the GFS or Euro showing it turning NNW and moving at 50mph??? It actually was a classic synoptic setup in retrospect. Current wisdom is it was moving 35-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 It actually was a classic synoptic setup in retrospect. Current wisdom is it was moving 35-40. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Link? Just look at the plots 46 35.2 N 73.1 W 09/21/7AM 115 CAT 3 (H) 47 39.0 N 73.0 W 09/21/2PM 115 CAT 3 (H) 3.8 degrees times 60 miles per degree equals 228 divided by 5 hours equals 45.6mph. Supposedly a 50 mile eye and 100 mile hurricane radius. Close to 50 but not the 70 most sites say, but then again maybe the plot times could mean it was traveling at 30 then accelerated to 70. Hard to say but there is a difference of opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Thanks. I always thought 50 or so. Just started a book on the Can Do in the 1978 Blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 To be saying this 100% won't happen is still lolz imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 3, 2012 Author Share Posted September 3, 2012 The odds are improving, that is a good thing. Usually the models have been showing a dead-on hit for days by now, then they trend east or towards the Bahamas/FL/Gulf around D3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 The odds are improving, that is a good thing. Usually the models have been showing a dead-on hit for days by now, then they trend east or towards the Bahamas/FL/Gulf around D3-5. 150 years, no storm at that position has ever made direct landfall in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 3, 2012 Author Share Posted September 3, 2012 150 years, no storm at that position has ever made direct landfall in SNE. Yeah, I didn't say that in regards to a landfall of a hurricane but something like the GGEM would be a site for sore eyes at Nauset out on the elbow. Outside shot, but not impossible. Played 18 at Falcon Otis AFB today, 48 and 44, only second time out golfing this year. Greens were terrible, but that was the beauty of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Yeah, I didn't say that in regards to a landfall of a hurricane but something like the GGEM would be a site for sore eyes at Nauset out on the elbow. Outside shot, but not impossible. Played 18 at Falcon Otis AFB today, 48 and 44, only second time out golfing this year. Greens were terrible, but that was the beauty of it. Nice!, yea hoping for great surf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 3, 2012 Author Share Posted September 3, 2012 Nice!, yea hoping for great surf. Some decent surf is a good bet. The water temps are quite mild - 76F right now at Menauhant Beach, which is not exactly some small , protected cove. winds and rain, and big seas (Esther, Gerda, Edouard?) would be frustrating, yet a nice end to summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 It actually was a classic synoptic setup in retrospect. Current wisdom is it was moving 35-40. LOL you get excited about the oddest things. The 2006 Jarvinien paper had the forward speed at 70 mph east of the Outer Banks but the storm was decelerating as it was being tugged into the ULL. The forward speed at landfall was 40 mph on Long Island. Landsea suggests in the reanalysis paper that the forward speed at landfall was about 40 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Leslie may ruin our ULL fun Sunday-Monday of next week. Subsidence on back side of storm may help keep the good rains west. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 00z ukie seems pretty far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 00z ukie seems pretty far west Yeah... crosses 70W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Man as we get closer..so do the models to a direct hit. Few more shifts west and we are in bizzy. The plot thickens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Man as we get closer..so do the models to a direct hit. Few more shifts west and we are in bizzy. The plot thickens GFS Ensembles excited for the big hit too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 GFS Ensembles excited for the big hit too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Man as we get closer..so do the models to a direct hit. Few more shifts west and we are in bizzy. The plot thickens You are in full weenie mode lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 You are in full weenie mode lately Have to do something to get us thru this God-awful month that everyone despises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Have to do something to get us thru this God-awful month that everyone despises This is the month to get out and enjoy life. The weather is beautiful... enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 This is the month to get out and enjoy life. The weather is beautiful... enjoy it. There is more to life, than Lesco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 There is more to life, than Lesco. Weenie posts with no meteorology make September unpleasant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Have to do something to get us thru this God-awful month that everyone despises Add something to the winter thread...at least that is realistic. Or the lawn and garden. Post lawn pics. Chipmunk count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 This is the month to get out and enjoy life. The weather is beautiful... enjoy it. I live life to the fullest. Outside everyday. This next week looks gorgeous!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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