CT Rain Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 On 8/31/2012 at 4:44 PM, CT Blizz said: When Alan speaks...folks should listen..he's good The footsteps are growing louder for a ..... KFS bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 On 8/19/2012 at 12:05 PM, CT Blizz said: Raleighwx says chances of recurve lessening...Folks need to start paying attn to this.. On 8/19/2012 at 12:41 PM, CT Blizz said: Can you hear it? Allan Huffman @RaleighWx Global models weaker with Invest94 and thus a further west track. At day 8, 6z GFS Ensemble members clusterin western Bahamas. On 8/31/2012 at 4:31 PM, CT Blizz said: KFS On 8/31/2012 at 4:44 PM, CT Blizz said: When Alan speaks...folks should listen..he's good Deja Weenie for Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 On 8/31/2012 at 4:43 PM, ORH_wxman said: We'll have a cat 5 hitting Boston from the due east. I know your just messing, But what a catastrophe that would be if it ever happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 On 8/31/2012 at 4:42 PM, CT Rain said: The GFS has 2 nice mid west troughs dropping down that match the loading pattern for SNE hurricanes. Part 1 is there... that's the easy part... now part 2 - getting a major hurricane in the perfect spot needs to fall into place. Yeah that's a case where everything has to be at the right place at the right time since it's a little too far east. I think we also need to remember global models sometimes trend a little too far west...or capture the storm a little too much when ever they try to make it more baroclinic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 On 8/31/2012 at 4:52 PM, Dryslot said: I know your just messing, But what a catastrophe that would be if it ever happened Given the SSTs it's impossible IMO to have a cat 4 or 5 hit SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Kevin needs to be careful twisting the words of mets. Yes it could be a "threat", but lets not make it more than it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 On 8/31/2012 at 4:54 PM, CoastalWx said: Kevin needs to be careful twisting the words of EVERYONE. Yes it could be a "threat", but lets not make it more than it is. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 On 8/31/2012 at 4:49 PM, CT Rain said: The footsteps are growing louder for a ..... KFS bust. Has there ever been even one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 On 8/31/2012 at 4:53 PM, CT Rain said: Given the SSTs it's impossible IMO to have a cat 4 or 5 hit SNE. Yeah, That's is always the case, Even this year with SST's above normal, Its still not like being in the tropics where temps are in the 80's, These tropical systems are usually trucking when they get to this lat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 31, 2012 Author Share Posted August 31, 2012 On 8/31/2012 at 4:53 PM, CT Rain said: Given the SSTs it's impossible IMO to have a cat 4 or 5 hit SNE. I believe 1635 sets the precedent as the only "at least" strong 3 or more likely cat 4 to strike SNE. So not sure I agree, but you're the expert. iirc the pressure was estimated high 930mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 What am i twisting? Alan says we need to watch it and is concerned of a possible LF. How is that twisted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 I have a hard time with accounts from colonial times. They are often exaggerated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 On 8/31/2012 at 4:58 PM, BIrving said: I believe 1635 sets the precedent as the only "at least" strong 3 or more likely cat 4 to strike SNE. So not sure I agree, but you're the expert. iirc the pressure was estimated high 930mb. I doubt it was a legit 4. I could see a strong cat 3... but getting sustained winds at that level is next to impossible here. One of the reasons why is the cooler SSTs will help stabilize the lower boundary layer making it more challenging to mix down the strongest winds at the top of the BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 On 8/31/2012 at 5:01 PM, CoastalWx said: I have a hard time with accounts from colonial times. They are often exaggerated. From what I've see 1635 was worse than 1938. It's hard to fathom an actual category 4 in the current climate regime. I don't think it's physically possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Accounts like "Snow was up to thy knickers.." and "a great tempest doth occurred and thy hay thatched roof blew into the wind in great haste.." are subjective to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 On 8/31/2012 at 5:02 PM, CT Rain said: From what I've see 1635 was worse than 1938. It's hard to fathom an actual category 4 in the current climate regime. I don't think it's physically possible. I could see Cat III, but Cat IV seems hard to come by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 It would be nice if mets would disagree with one another on here and have some differing opinions instead of constantly agreeing with what the other one types first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 31, 2012 Author Share Posted August 31, 2012 There is a little more science behind that than just colonial accounts and the usual mythology. If a '38 was possible with a high-end cat 3, I'd imagine a low end cat 4 is not impossible. Maybe, maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 On 8/31/2012 at 5:06 PM, CT Blizz said: It would be nice if mets would disagree with one another on here and have some differing opinions instead of constantly agreeing with what the other one types first What's to disagree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 On 8/31/2012 at 4:57 PM, CT Blizz said: Has there ever been even one? Would you like for us to dig up the posts on Isaac for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 On 8/31/2012 at 5:07 PM, BIrving said: There is a little more science behind that than just colonial accounts and the usual mythology. If a '38 was possible with a high-end cat 3, I'd imagine a low end cat 4 is not impossible. Maybe, maybe not. Well in 1635, it's hard to find anything more than written accounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 On 8/31/2012 at 5:09 PM, CoastalWx said: Well in 1635, it's hard to find anything more than written accounts. I believe they can tell what surge and such was like too though from the sediment cores....they found a layer of sand pretty far inland in RI...that surpassed 1938....but there is still uncertainty on resolving the strength of that hurricane from that alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 If the Hurricane models are at least reasonable correct, Leslie will actually be farther northeast at Day 5 than what is ideal of Bermuda hurricane hit, which is favored from the due south. However, higher the normal north-western Atlantic to Nova Scotia 500mb heights could compensate for that deviation from climo. Shear actually becomes quite unfavorable in the day 4 to 5 range, but both the EC and the GFS greatly improve synoptic conditions onward as a upper level anticyclone builds over Leslie. This really when the EC and the GFS show an intensifying, large hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 On 8/31/2012 at 5:08 PM, CoastalWx said: What's to disagree? It's just if you type something..Ryan always agrees..and vice versa..There's never any differing opinions or arguments...It's always.. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 On 8/31/2012 at 5:12 PM, ORH_wxman said: I believe they can tell what surge and such was like too though from the sediment cores....they found a layer of sand pretty far inland in RI...that surpassed 1938....but there is still uncertainty on resolving the strength of that hurricane from that alone. I mean more from that time, but yeah I think Steve brought that up before. Like you said...it's tough to figure out how strong it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 On 8/31/2012 at 5:12 PM, ORH_wxman said: I believe they can tell what surge and such was like too though from the sediment cores....they found a layer of sand pretty far inland in RI...that surpassed 1938....but there is still uncertainty on resolving the strength of that hurricane from that alone. but as we have seen with Ike and Isaac, surge does not tell the intensity.We will never know what the wind speed, baro were, all we know is that 1635 and 1815 had bigger surge than 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 On 8/31/2012 at 5:14 PM, CT Blizz said: It's just if you type something..Ryan always agrees..and vice versa..There's never any differing opinions or arguments...It's always.. Agreed That's not true at all. What is there to disagree on currently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 I kind of don't get the big excitement for lessons learned from Issac...etc. Yes the SS scale is not perfect, but what good is it to have a scale for every hazard? I thought the experimental impacts page was perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 On 8/31/2012 at 5:15 PM, CoastalWx said: That's not true at all. What is there to disagree on currently? Maybe we agree with one another because we use meteorology to back up our claims. It's easy to disagree with someone who posts fantasy to just get a rise out of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 On 8/31/2012 at 5:22 PM, CoastalWx said: I kind of don't get the big excitement for lessons learned from Issac...etc. Yes the SS scale is not perfect, but what good is it to have a scale for every hazard? I thought the experimental impacts page was perfect. It's sort of getting annoying. The system should have worked. The message was out and evacuations were ordered. Should people chauffeur you out of a storm surge zone next time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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