Ginx snewx Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Wow on this dam break, that drains into Lake P too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 As a tool to raise awareness and preparedness for a storm yes, but it does have its place in allowing an comparison of one hurricane (the storm itself - not the impacts) to another. If an F5 tornado goes across an open prarie, is it still an F5 tornado? Yes it is, but it's impact where people live would make it a different story. Since the NWS's mission is to provde warnings to protect life and property, I think we need some kind of storm category scale that take into account the total impacting a given area. Such a scale could be used for many types of storms and would help sway the concept that tropical storm or category one hurricane isn't that bad. You might even be able to assign a storm category by county since the storm will have different impacts in different counties. I think Irene showed that you can have a high impact and not even be on the SS scale so we need something else - I'll agree with that. Apologies for joining this late and missing earlier discussion (am usually in the NYC forum anyway!), but in this vein NWS offices in conjunction with NHC are providing experimental Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics: http://w1.weather.gov/tcig The idea behind these graphics is to inform people what they should prepare for, which can often be different from what they should actually expect/experience. Also helps take focus off the forecast track of the storm center, while taking the "cone of uncertainty" and other probabilistic wind, storm surge, inland flooding, and tornado threat guidance into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Apologies for joining this late and missing earlier discussion (am usually in the NYC forum anyway!), but in this vein NWS offices in conjunction with NHC are providing experimental Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics: http://w1.weather.gov/tcig The idea behind these graphics is to inform people what they should prepare for, which can often be different from what they should actually expect/experience. Also helps take focus off the forecast track of the storm center, while taking the "cone of uncertainty" and other probabilistic wind, storm surge, inland flooding, and tornado threat guidance into account. I thought these were a great set of products. Something that can also be communicated by on air mets. It was broke down into regions and the impacts were spelled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Apologies for joining this late and missing earlier discussion (am usually in the NYC forum anyway!), but in this vein NWS offices in conjunction with NHC are providing experimental Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics: http://w1.weather.gov/tcig The idea behind these graphics is to inform people what they should prepare for, which can often be different from what they should actually expect/experience. Also helps take focus off the forecast track of the storm center, while taking the "cone of uncertainty" and other probabilistic wind, storm surge, inland flooding, and tornado threat guidance into account. Right off the bat I love this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Apologies for joining this late and missing earlier discussion (am usually in the NYC forum anyway!), but in this vein NWS offices in conjunction with NHC are providing experimental Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics: http://w1.weather.gov/tcig The idea behind these graphics is to inform people what they should prepare for, which can often be different from what they should actually expect/experience. Also helps take focus off the forecast track of the storm center, while taking the "cone of uncertainty" and other probabilistic wind, storm surge, inland flooding, and tornado threat guidance into account. Bill... these are wonderful. I'm excited to see them used in the future. At the end of the day its coordination between NWS, emergency management, and media that gets the job done. Graphics like this are an easy way to communicate... especially to weather people who aren't mets (there are enough of those) and to people in newsrooms, government, etc. who don't have a met degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Mandatory evacuation now for nearly 50k people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE LOUISIANA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1108 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012 THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY. A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FAILURE OF THE LAKE TANGIPAHOA DAM...ALSO KNOWN AS THE PERCY QUIN DAM...IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. AGAIN...A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FAILURE OF THE LAKE TANGIPAHOA DAM...ALSO KNOWN AS THE PERCY QUIN DAM...IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. DUE TO THE DAM FAILURE...WATER LEVELS ON THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR CHATAWA AND OSYKA WILL RISE QUICKLY. NEAR OSYKA...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 21.5 FEET. THIS WILL BREAK THE RECORD PREVIOUSLY SET IN 1997. AT 21 FEET...THE RIVER WILL THREATEN THE ROADWAY APPROACH TO HIGHWAY 584 AND WILL INUNDATE THE SURROUNDING AREAS. IF YOU LIVE IN THESE AREAS...LEAVE IMMEDIATELY FOR HIGHER GROUND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Bill... these are wonderful. I'm excited to see them used in the future. At the end of the day its coordination between NWS, emergency management, and media that gets the job done. Graphics like this are an easy way to communicate... especially to weather people who aren't mets (there are enough of those) and to people in newsrooms, government, etc. who don't have a met degree. They are fantastic and used by NO on their web page, apparently ignored by some, emergency and local officials and residents as shown in the articles I posted above. Communication and dessimination are vital. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Bill... these are wonderful. I'm excited to see them used in the future. They've been available since 2008 or 2009, but really came into focus last year for Irene and this year for Isaac. Keep in mind they're experimental...addressing storm surge impacts can be especially tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 NHC has Leslie being picked up by the mid-Atlantic trough and recurving out to sea...EAST OF BERMUDA--lol-not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 NHC has Leslie being picked up by the mid-Atlantic trough and recurving out to sea...EAST OF BERMUDA--lol-not even close. One of the biggest factors that make it so tough to get a TC up here is all the troughs and fronts over and moving through this region, Timing has to be just right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 NHC has Leslie being picked up by the mid-Atlantic trough and recurving out to sea...EAST OF BERMUDA--lol-not even close. where did you read that? 120H 04/1200Z 27.0N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE RELATED TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM RECURVES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OR GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A REBUILDING RIDGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 where did you read that? 120H 04/1200Z 27.0N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE RELATED TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM RECURVES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OR GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A REBUILDING RIDGE. they have a graphical depiction on the website... - granted things can change, I get that, but like dryslot said, odds are against it unless everything is perfect...given how much latitude it's going to gain, hard to see how it doesnt escape IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 they have a graphical depiction on the website... - granted things can change, I get that, but like dryslot said, odds are against it unless everything is perfect...given how much latitude it's going to gain, hard to see how it doesnt escape IMO Just saw the update, yep I agree, maybe some surf if we can get it inside Bermuda alittle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 The whole SS scale debate. Bottom line, size matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 I guess if it keeps strengthening quickly we can kiss it goodbye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 From Josh's chase summary... Impressive Cat 1. Isaac is a great reminder that a hurricane is a hurricane—and even a Category 1 is serious business. The storm was large and powerful, raking a large region with devastating winds and storm surge. I read something from someone who rode out the storm that it was just a Cat. 1, so they just figured they'd ride it out - this was after being rescued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 From Josh's chase summary... Impressive Cat 1. Isaac is a great reminder that a hurricane is a hurricane—and even a Category 1 is serious business. The storm was large and powerful, raking a large region with devastating winds and storm surge. I read something from someone who rode out the storm that it was just a Cat. 1, so they just figured they'd ride it out - this was after being rescued. No 2 systems are alike, If they tell you to evacuate and your in a prone area, You might want to think about paying attention, Unfortunately, Common sense can't be taught Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 No 2 systems are alike, If they tell you to evacuate and your in a prone area, You might want to think about paying attention, Unfortunately, Common sense can't be taught It's not that common Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 It's not that common Either you have it or you don't, Its like luck, Everyone has it, Its either good or bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 No 2 systems are alike, If they tell you to evacuate and your in a prone area, You might want to think about paying attention, Unfortunately, Common sense can't be taught Seriously...if u can throw ur alarm clock out ur window, have it bounce off the levee protecting ur below sea level house! You need to leave when a hurricane is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 move the 6z gfs 75 miles west and kevin gets his storm lol to bad its 10 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 AWT models moving closer to direct hit for SNE. Cane leslie is a knockin..get your weenies chuckin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 when its gets within 5 days it might get exciting but until then its still a long shot AWT models moving closer to direct hit for SNE. Cane leslie is a knockin..get your weenies chuckin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 I see Kevin has boarded the cane train...even though the last one derailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 upper level pattern on the op gfs is actually ideal for SNE landfall...it's unforntuate that the storm is so far north and east before it's start it's recurvature. Op EC isn't nearly as ideal. GFS and EC Ensembles have the more flat midwest trough the Op EC has. The GFS/Euro both recurve this between Bermuda and SNE...and the ensembles just to the east of Bermuda. I'd be leaning that way at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 upper level pattern on the op gfs is actually ideal for SNE landfall...it's unforntuate that the storm is so far north and east before it's start it's recurvature. Op EC isn't nearly as ideal. GFS and EC Ensembles have the more flat midwest trough the Op EC has. The GFS/Euro both recurve this between Bermuda and SNE...and the ensembles just to the east of Bermuda. I'd be leaning that way at this point. That's really the key, imo. The synoptic pattern is favorable next weekend for a US landfall, but the storm has to stay far enough south and west for it to have a chance. Otherwise, it will just be another Earl or Bill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 That's really the key, imo. The synoptic pattern is favorable next weekend for a US landfall, but the storm has to stay far enough south and west for it to have a chance. Otherwise, it will just be another Earl or Bill. Bill is exactly what I was thinking this morning when I looked at everything...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Bill is exactly what I was thinking this morning when I looked at everything...lol Man what a tease that was. Tropical models really had the right idea with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Bill is exactly what I was thinking this morning when I looked at everything...lol Me too and was thinking about the surf that day, epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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