CT Rain Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 They should implement the sultan scale. That's actually what they should do to evacuate people for dam breaches and imminent flash flooding. Send up the signal. Illuminate the night sky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 The Sultan is always watching..always waiting, always warning..If there's a flood the Sultan is by your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 That's actually what they should do to evacuate people for dam breaches and imminent flash flooding. Send up the signal. Illuminate the night sky! Exactly. People would point to the sky in awe, but also know that the Sultan is protecting lives. In all honesty....we can try knee jerk reactions to avoid mass casualties....but I truly do not know how we'll ever cure the problem. Responses from you and a couple of NWS guys basically sums up my feelings too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 When the impacts of the storm are mentioned time and time again...I lose sympathy for these residents who stayed. Sorry. Unfortunately, the NWS can try to change scales..adjust wording all they want...but it will never change the human psyche. People will learn through experience, media saturation of disaster footage, and general self education. Except St Johns, Slidell were not under evac notices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Looking forward to Kevs Cat 3, we know Hartford and Boston will be safe. expect to read about it over and over again. Thank god for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 We need to get Sultan t shirts ..lol Everytime it rains we all wear our Sultan shirts..May the Sultan be with you...and also with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 The current Saffir-Simpson scale is flawed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 We need to get Sultan t shirts ..lol Everytime it rains we all wear our Sultan shirts..May the Sultan be with you...and also with you Heavy winter jackets would be better. Enjoy your last true torch day, its over, football season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Heavy winter jackets would be better. Enjoy your last true torch day, its over, football season. Or one with a plow truck buried up to its roof with snow like what is going to happen this winter.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Kids will be wearing Sultan costumes for Halloween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 The current Saffir-Simpson scale is flawed. It is, but what are we gonna do...have 5 different scales for certain impacts? It is what it is..it will never be perfect. If you say 12' surge and nobody leaves...you think a "Cat III" surge warning would cause people to leave? This is how the public is. Many don't even want to leave because it's there house and property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Kids will be wearing Sultan costumes for Halloween Hand out flashlights with the sultan silhouette embedded in the flashlight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Hand out flashlights with the sultan silhouette embedded in the flashlight. Instead of pumpkins..we'll carve Sultans..put a candle inside..He'll light the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Or one with a plow truck buried up to its roof with snow like what is going to happen this winter.......... I can picture Kev and Scooter texting back and forth this winter. Scooter, I am sick of this winter, we were due for a dead ratter. Kev Dumfounded Scooter just a minute have to breast feed the baby. Scooter ok back, might snow tomorrow but I caution against any excitement Kev 12-24 with Lollis of 30, the energy Mets are in agreement Scooter Euro Ens are a concern Kev Have to go, morning runs in flurries suck. Scooter Ok off to my parents to romp around in their snow, cat paws here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Heavy winter jackets would be better. Enjoy your last true torch day, its over, football season. For Sox fans it is football season..for Yankees fans it's pennant race and magic number time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 For Sox fans it is football season..for Yankees fans it's pennant race and magic number time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 The current Saffir-Simpson scale is flawed. As a tool to raise awareness and preparedness for a storm yes, but it does have its place in allowing an comparison of one hurricane (the storm itself - not the impacts) to another. If an F5 tornado goes across an open prarie, is it still an F5 tornado? Yes it is, but it's impact where people live would make it a different story. Since the NWS's mission is to provde warnings to protect life and property, I think we need some kind of storm category scale that take into account the total impacting a given area. Such a scale could be used for many types of storms and would help sway the concept that tropical storm or category one hurricane isn't that bad. You might even be able to assign a storm category by county since the storm will have different impacts in different counties. I think Irene showed that you can have a high impact and not even be on the SS scale so we need something else - I'll agree with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 I can picture Kev and Scooter texting back and forth this winter. Scooter, I am sick of this winter, we were due for a dead ratter. Kev Dumfounded Scooter just a minute have to breast feed the baby. Scooter ok back, might snow tomorrow but I caution against any excitement Kev 12-24 with Lollis of 30, the energy Mets are in agreement Scooter Euro Ens are a concern Kev Have to go, morning runs in sleet sucks. Scooter Ok off to my parents to romp around in their snow, cat paws here fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 It is, but what are we gonna do...have 5 different scales for certain impacts? It is what it is..it will never be perfect. If you say 12' surge and nobody leaves...you think a "Cat III" surge warning would cause people to leave? This is how the public is. Many don't even want to leave because it's there house and property. To me, it would be an improvement over what we have. Any way we can better inform the masses, I'm all for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Fujiwhara hurricane into Cape Cod on the Euro? That is about as likely as getting 2 additional back-to-back October snowstorms lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Except St Johns, Slidell were not under evac notices. I understand the point you are trying to make. But it is not as if these people were not warned of the potential. The graphics have since been updated for the current forecast, but at the time leading up to landfall much of Pontchartrain was in the high to extreme surge forecast. Here is the text associated with high impact storm surge flooding. Southeast Louisiana - Life threatening flooding possible in areas outside hurricane protection levees and in areas around Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas. Sections of west Jefferson and lower Lafourche hurricane protection levees could be over topped. Areas outside of hurricane protection levees will be severely inundated. People not heeding evacuation orders in single family, one or two story homes could face certain death. Many residences of average construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere. Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads will be swamped. Some may be washed away by the water. Entire flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff, perhaps for more than a week. Water levels 7 to 8 feet are possible behind over topped levees. Significant storm surge flooding will move well inland especially along bays and bayous Life threatening flooding was possible, inundation will happen outside hurricane protection levees (which were not reinforced post-Katrina on the north shore), etc. The impacts were spelled out in the forecast, and people had the option to pack up and go if they felt they were in danger. Part of preparation is knowing whether or not you are in a flood zone. Just because you aren't told you have to leave, doesn't mean it's not a good idea to. I mean the West Jefferson levees are specifically mentioned, as is Lake Maurepas which are most likely directly involved in the flooding at Laplace. I don't know if anyone has noticed, but there is a reason that when you click on the link at the top of Slidell's webpage for tropical cyclone impact graphics it defaults to coastal flooding. That has been the threat LIX wanted to emphasize all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 It is, but what are we gonna do...have 5 different scales for certain impacts? It is what it is..it will never be perfect. If you say 12' surge and nobody leaves...you think a "Cat III" surge warning would cause people to leave? This is how the public is. Many don't even want to leave because it's there house and property. Many people also don't want to leave when they are told to. As if it was their choice then it was the right thing to do, as soon as they are told to they know better and can ride it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 I understand the point you are trying to make. But it is not as if these people were not warned of the potential. The graphics have since been updated for the current forecast, but at the time leading up to landfall much of Pontchartrain was in the high to extreme surge forecast. Here is the text associated with high impact storm surge flooding. Life threatening flooding was possible, inundation will happen outside hurricane protection levees (which were not reinforced post-Katrina on the north shore), etc. The impacts were spelled out in the forecast, and people had the option to pack up and go if they felt they were in danger. Part of preparation is knowing whether or not you are in a flood zone. Just because you aren't told you have to leave, doesn't mean it's not a good idea to. I mean the West Jefferson levees are specifically mentioned, as is Lake Maurepas which are most likely directly involved in the flooding at Laplace. I don't know if anyone has noticed, but there is a reason that when you click on the link at the top of Slidell's webpage for tropical cyclone impact graphics it defaults to coastal flooding. That has been the threat LIX wanted to emphasize all along. Not blaming NWS they did awesome. I wonder how the dessimation of that text was done by local officials. Every interview I saw the folks said, did not think it would be that bad, Cat 1, Tropical storms are usually nothing around here. Again we go back to SS, thats what we all grew up with. We saw this problem with IKE too. It needs to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Ocean I think this was the problem in Slidell http://www.thesttamm...1a4bcf887a.html “Based on current projections, we are anticipating a storm surge of 5 to 8 feet, which will cause flooding in the Palm Lake area,” said Drennan. “Additionally, we’re preparing for the after effects of the storm, which could include power outages for an estimated two to three days following the storm. Slidell has not called for a mandatory evacuation as of Monday morning, but city officials encourage citizens who live in the “low lying areas, and those who are not prepared to be without electricity for several days, to consider evacuating until such time as the storm has passed and power has been resto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Then this this morning http://www.thesttammanynews.com/news/article_1e56150a-f29b-11e1-9bd4-0019bb2963f4.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 The chances of RI were quite low, imo. Not impossible, but unlikely. A few weenie models like the HRRR and etc showed doomsday for the gulf and, even hitting the moon instead of stars, that was a major landfall shown. If there is data and model support for it, even if it's spurious at best (if not completely useless), you bet people will run with it. In this case, there likely were too many negatives to be overcome for RI (but not certain), especially by Sunday. http://www.americanw...95#entry1716622 Agreed. I was never all that enamored with that system.....it had a myriad of defects, not to mention the fact that it was so large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 well this could never be predicted, yikes WWL says Lake Tangipahao dam has failed, they are evacuating 50,000 people right now. 10-15' surge going south within next hour. http://www.wwltv.com/news/local/Tangipahoa-Parish-orders-immediate-evacuation-after-potential-levee-breach-167994886.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Not blaming NWS they did awesome. I wonder how the dessimation of that text was done by local officials. Every interview I saw the folks said, did not think it would be that bad, Cat 1, Tropical storms are usually nothing around here. Again we go back to SS, thats what we all grew up with. We saw this problem with IKE too. It needs to change. And that's one area we have little if any leeway. We can only beat the drum of the forecast and disseminate evacuation orders, but cannot recommend evacuations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 For Sox fans it is football season..for Yankees fans it's pennant race and magic number time I'm a Sox fan, and I'm looking forward to the baseball PS....some new blood this year. Too bad the Buccos has faded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Looks like there is a trough around day 5 or so-if it can miss than connection then maybe it can make it west....I'd bet on a recurve based on climo though...if we don't get this one, we're likely done for this year other than some home brew setup. Bob was a home brew....stalled front off the bahamas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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