NE Tropical Thread

[dryslot]

Several days ago I warned that landfall intensity would not likely be above 80kts. I didn't really hear anyone else being too conservative at the time. It's too bad people, even mets, put way too much stock in those horrible tropical models.

Weenies wanted a major landfall, talked about RI and monitored the pressure falls for 36 hours consecutively w/out a break...eyes glazed, drooling ....so when that fails, dignity must be protected and the storm will be overplayed.

Just need to put yourself in a position to what you post to where you technically can't be wrong no matter how it plays out.....

[Brian5671]

so where is the GFS tropical special for next week-is it gone?

[40/70 Benchmark]

I agree.

This system has always struck me as one that was just destined to be plagued by something its entire life, and never really put it together.

Minimal cane, tops at landfall.

I have seen a pro met making dire posts on FB that the "conscensus" intensity upon LF in LA was a 125 mph cane......I was polite, and very reserved, simply stating that 125 seemed high.

WTF is he smoking??

Same guy who kept telling everyone that the pattern was changing last winter.

Probably a solid cat 2, cosnidering its not a very compact system.....I think that is the upper edge of the intensity envelope, at this stage.

My call is 80mph.....maybe low 970ish mb pressure?

The Tropical Prediction Center has issued a Dry Paint Watch for all of Americanwx.

A Dry Paint Watch is issued when the possibilty exists for the entire site to realize that the tropical cyclone that they thought they were watching is actually drying paint within 36-48 hours.

If Issac's transition to drying paint becomes imminent, then a Dry Paint Warning may be issued.

Drying Paint is accompanied by frequent gusts of rage, with sustained bouts of restlessness, and a severe surge of inane posts, accompanied by hallucinations.

Stay tuned to the Tropical Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service for updates on this static situation.

Its probably right...I was just telling Scooter via text central-western GOM.

Several days ago I warned that landfall intensity would not likely be above 80kts. I didn't really hear anyone else being too conservative at the time. It's too bad people, even mets, put way too much stock in those horrible tropical models.

Weenies wanted a major landfall, talked about RI and monitored the pressure falls for 36 hours consecutively w/out a break...eyes glazed, drooling ....so when that fails, dignity must be protected and the storm will be overplayed.

Really??

[Ginx snewx]

Tough stuff for those in the path outside the levees.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Same thing with Irene last season....I remember rebutting DT when he was calling for Irene to undergo RI near the Bahamas, which he later denied, of course.

Intensity forecast is about 40% observation, 40% experience, and 20% models.

Consider what the sat. view suggests regarding intensity, the issues plaguing it, if any, and draw upon your past experiences.

This one had modest rates of intensification written all over it, as Irene had "skunked" post ERC written all over it last season.

I don't give a broken levee what the models say....if the sytem does not look pretty on sat, with a well defined eye on IR, and/or is being plagued by:

1) An Upper Level Low (ULL)

2) A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT)

3) Dry air

4) Poory developed inner core

Honorable Mention: Shear, and Eye Wall Replacement Cycles (ERCs)

BE LEERY, AND BE CONSERVATIVE because those are signs of atmospheric defects that are seldom quickly resolved.

Its the atmosphere's way of telling you something......listen to it.

[free_man]

Really??

I was talking more along the lines of late last week, or the weekend. But yes, even up to 24 hours ago the fvcking "K" storm was being mentioned. :./

[CoastalWx]

That's a lot of freshwater in NOLA.The shifting winds combining with the tides as a coworker brought up could do weird things in the levee area. Hopefully it holds.

[Ginx snewx]

That's a lot of freshwater in NOLA.The shifting winds combining with the tides as a coworker brought up could do weird things in the levee area. Hopefully it holds.

Yea seeing some of that now with some failures in small areas and rescues going on. still far from over

[wxsniss]

1) Re: bickering over the strength / hype / downplaying, can we put this to rest for now.

Clearly the truth will be somewhere in the middle: it's not Katrina, but the effects underway are evidently devastating to some communities.

More importantly, this is still unfolding in real-time (the Reports thread is actually a pretty good source of info / photos), and I doubt we will appreciate the true impact until at least tomorrow.

2) Re: the back-slapping AIT's... it was pretty obvious by Monday morning that Isaac was plagued with chronic structural issues.

Arguably, it's better to be guarded against the possibility of under-forecasting. We all know TCs have surprised to the upside in the past, and it was totally reasonable to keep that possibility on the table given the otherwise very favorable environment, even though by Monday morning (when all these quoted claims were made), it was increasingly obvious Isaac had some fundamental structural issues.

Impact-wise, the most significant aspect of this storm is it's slow speed / stall in the past 18 hours... no one correctly forecasted or hyped that. This thing has barely moved 50 miles in the past 18 hours, and I can't recall that predicted by 24 hours prior to landfall. Correct me if I missed something...

[Ginx snewx]

Check out the spinning vorts on the Mob and LIX base velocity radars in those two spiral bands. crazy

[free_man]

1) Re: bickering over the strength / hype / downplaying, can we put this to rest for now.

Clearly the truth will be somewhere in the middle: it's not Katrina, but the effects underway are evidently devastating to some communities.

More importantly, this is still unfolding in real-time (the Reports thread is actually a pretty good source of info / photos), and I doubt we will appreciate the true impact until at least tomorrow.

2) Re: the back-slapping AIT's... it was pretty obvious by Monday morning that Isaac was plagued with chronic structural issues.

Arguably, it's better to be guarded against the possibility of under-forecasting. We all know TCs have surprised to the upside in the past, and it was totally reasonable to keep that possibility on the table given the otherwise very favorable environment, even though by Monday morning (when all these quoted claims were made), it was increasingly obvious Isaac had some fundamental structural issues.

Impact-wise, the most significant aspect of this storm is it's slow speed / stall in the past 18 hours... no one correctly forecasted or hyped that. This thing has barely moved 50 miles in the past 18 hours, and I can't recall that predicted by 24 hours prior to landfall. Correct me if I missed something...

The chances of RI were quite low, imo. Not impossible, but unlikely. A few weenie models like the HRRR and etc showed doomsday for the gulf and, even hitting the moon instead of stars, that was a major landfall shown. If there is data and model support for it, even if it's spurious at best (if not completely useless), you bet people will run with it.

In this case, there likely were too many negatives to be overcome for RI (but not certain), especially by Sunday.

http://www.americanw...95#entry1716622

[Mr Torchey]

So sad.

[CoastalWx]

Luckily, pumps and levees working the way they should right now.

[Mr Torchey]

The flooding outside of NO is insane, just getting caught up on videos after work.

Looks like Isaac has stalled yet again, wow.

[Damage In Tolland]

Let's get this back over water!!

[Mr Torchey]

Great thread in the main forum regarding scaling back the ss scale!

[Mr Torchey]

By the way, nice piece done by Ryan, just saw the video with our very own Josh!!

[CT Rain]

By the way, nice piece done by Ryan, just saw the video with our very own Josh!!

Here's the video from today's 5 p.m. news

http://www.nbcconnecticut.com/video/#!/on-air/as-seen-on/Isaac-And-Social-Media/167900145

[CT Rain]

Great thread in the main forum regarding scaling back the ss scale!

The SS debate is interesting but I feel like we may just be doing more harm than good. If we get too "cute" with scales and ranking storms we may open a whole other can of worms.

I think the initial scale is fine but the media and emergency managers need to do a better job at conveying the threat to the public for each and every storm. No set of numbers will accurately characterize the "threat" and the uncertainty of each storm.

[wxsniss]

Here's the video from today's 5 p.m. news

http://www.nbcconnec...Media/167900145

nice bit!

[Mr Torchey]

The SS debate is interesting but I feel like we may just be doing more harm than good. If we get too "cute" with scales and ranking storms we may open a whole other can of worms.

I think the initial scale is fine but the media and emergency managers need to do a better job at conveying the threat to the public for each and every storm. No set of numbers will accurately characterize the "threat" and the uncertainty of each storm.

I think mets and weather enthusiasts understand what a cat 1 can do, especially one that stalls for a couple days, but the general public might look at a cat 1 and say..............meh, its only a cat 1. Interesting discussion.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Nice story Ryan.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I think mets and weather enthusiasts understand what a cat 1 can do, especially one that stalls for a couple days, but the general public might look at a cat 1 and say..............meh, its only a cat 1. Interesting discussion.

It is a really great discussion to have. I could see a case made for having some type of gradation scale for societal impact based on rains, flooding, winds, etc....

Just compare Irene to Isaac. I could only imagine the destruction up here had Irene stalled. It was bad enough.

[Mr Torchey]

It is a really great discussion to have. I could see a case made for having some type of gradation scale for societal impact based on rains, flooding, winds, etc....

Just compare Irene to Isaac. I could only imagine the destruction up here had Irene stalled. It was bad enough.

I cant imagine the damage Bob, the surge here along the sw and central ct coast was very damaging, and of course all the trees down. I cant imagine it if an Isaac stalled over bdr, what that would do to sne, thankfully that kind of scenario is almost impossible at our latitude thanks to westerlies but I guess you can never say never?

[Mr Torchey]

Perhaps a cat 1-5 for the different variables......rain, wind, surge, duration, coastal and inland?

[CT Rain]

I think mets and weather enthusiasts understand what a cat 1 can do, especially one that stalls for a couple days, but the general public might look at a cat 1 and say..............meh, its only a cat 1. Interesting discussion.

You're right here. That's what makes it imperative to communicate those threats to emergency managers, local/state government, and the general public.

When you tell people to expect a 12 foot storm surge and issue a mandatory evacuation and people don't leave (areas barely above sea level) I'm not sure what else can be done. There may have been local media downplaying? I'm not sure.

Look at Irene. While a tropical storm (and expected to be weaker than Bob and Gloria) we hammered the surge threat the hardest saying in some places it would be the worst in 50 years! I We knew the surge would be bad and that's what we really focused on. In the end many evacuated and many towns knew it would be severe.

We can only give so many levels, categories, rankings, and warnings. At the end of the day it's meteorologists, the media, government officials, and emergency managers that have to explain the threat to the public in a specific way.

[Mr Torchey]

By the way, this was talked about last night and pointed out in multiple threads, but thank goodness the mississippi was at record low levels, had it not the flooding in and around NO could have been much much different. It was pretty cool to see the river turn a green hue yesterday in and around the city as salt water worked its way up north and we got brackish water.

[CT Rain]

It is a really great discussion to have. I could see a case made for having some type of gradation scale for societal impact based on rains, flooding, winds, etc....

Just compare Irene to Isaac. I could only imagine the destruction up here had Irene stalled. It was bad enough.

Here's my problem with getting too specific.

1 - Different surge/rain/wind has different impacts in different parts of the country. A cat 3 in S FL, while severe, can be dealt with. Cat 3 winds in New England is a catastrophe. 25" of rain in Louisiana is quite significant and dangerous from one storm... but that in W Mass and CT would be historic and unprecedented.

2 - Categories get too specific when storms are so large. For example let's take Irene. The surge in portions of CT was very impressive... the surge out toward Boston the Cape, Buzzards Bay etc was minimal at best. Do we give different categories for each region?

3 - General public and explaining. Getting too specific can get confusing. People have a hard enough time with watches and warnings... nevermind a tiered scale of a bunch of cateogries!

[Mr Torchey]

Here's my problem with getting too specific.

1 - Different surge/rain/wind has different impacts in different parts of the country. A cat 3 in S FL, while severe, can be dealt with. Cat 3 winds in New England is a catastrophe. 25" of rain in Louisiana is quite significant and dangerous from one storm... but that in W Mass and CT would be historic and unprecedented.

2 - Categories get too specific when storms are so large. For example let's take Irene. The surge in portions of CT was very impressive... the surge out toward Boston the Cape, Buzzards Bay etc was minimal at best. Do we give different categories for each region?

3 - General public and explaining. Getting too specific can get confusing. People have a hard enough time with watches and warnings... nevermind a tiered scale of a bunch of cateogries!

Thats true, but perhaps there maybe a better way of conveying information to the public than the generic cat 1-5, lets be honest in todays watered down news channel society the message is not being conveyed. If you turn on fox or cnn or msnbc the first thing they mention is category or Ts.......also it seems as these hype machines may not employ the best mets. Its a good discussion.

[CT Rain]

Thats true, but perhaps there maybe a better way of conveying information to the public than the generic cat 1-5, lets be honest in todays watered down news channel society the message is not being conveyed. If you turn on fox or cnn or msnbc the first thing they mention is category or Ts.......also it seems as these hype machines may not employ the best mets. Its a good discussion.

It is a good conversation. I doubt most people get "local" storm info from national media outlets. For example during Irene you didn't hear a word about rain in Vermont or surge in Connecticut until the day after lol. In general having a good newsroom and good mets can really communicate a lot of information in a cogent, concise, and accurate manner. The importance of researching different types of weather and the local climate/topography/history is vital to get accurate information out.

None of it's easy.