CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Nobody is downplaying anything or said it wasn't bad on the mud strip of a parish. If they didn't evacuate from a storm surge that occurred and was predicted...don't know what to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Uh no SPECIAL 08/29/12 06:34 (PARISH-WIDE - ) ARMY CORP OF ENGINEERS REPORTING A BREACH / POSSIBLY BROKEN LEVY CAUSING FLOODING TO THE AREA [NHA057] I am not surprised at all, It may not be the last either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Weenies will always hear and believe what they want. so posting an Army Corp report is weenieish? LOL, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 so posting an Army Corp report is weenieish? LOL, No, saying people are downplaying it by posting evidence of a levee breach that isn't updated..is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 No amount of preparation or warning could possibly have prepared those poor folks down there for what is unfolding. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 No amount of preparation or warning could possibly have prepared those poor folks down there for what is unfolding. wow You need to bring more wood, We need a bigger fire in here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Fine New Orleans is saved, too bad for the rest of SE Lousiana, nobody lives there, its a mud pit, a swamp, heck with them rednecks. ru kidding me in here??? No one said in this thread ever Cat 5 damage, Katrina damage etc. But the constant belittlement is bewildering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Fine New Orleans is saved, too bad for the rest of SE Lousiana, nobody lives there, its a mud pit, a swamp, heck with them rednecks. ru kidding me in here??? No one said in this thread ever Cat 5 damage, Katrina damage etc. But the constant belittlement is bewildering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 The folks down there had ample warning, The problem is/was where are they going to go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I heard that. The Army Corps can answer for that. The forecast, however, indicated significant storm surge flooding in that area and there was a mandatory evacuation. Why a PR guy from the Army Corps was on TWC giving people information on how to stay safe is the better question. I don't think anyone... given the track... is surprised by what's happening in Plaquemines. Just made that comment in the office actually. It was the only parish as of yesterday morning that was under a mandatory evacuation. As you said, the forecast was for up to 12' surge, and that appears to be dead on. Completely consistent with a large, slow moving category 1 hurricane with that kind of coastline. And Plaquemines is a large parish, with the dramatic rescue photos and video coming out of the lower part. Was the Army Corps talking about the entire length of levee system or just the area that abuts greater New Orleans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Why would you not evacuate when a slow moving cat 1 is going to be over your head with onshore winds? Oh, and you live near or below sea level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 No, saying people are downplaying it by posting evidence of a levee breach that isn't updated..is. Uh Ryan said overtopping, everything I heard and read was breach. Overtopping a 12 foot levee by the way does not cause water to rise up to roof tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 20-30 inches of rain isn't helping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 LOL at folks fighting over this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Just made that comment in the office actually. It was the only parish as of yesterday morning that was under a mandatory evacuation. As you said, the forecast was for up to 12' surge, and that appears to be dead on. Completely consistent with a large, slow moving category 1 hurricane with that kind of coastline. And Plaquemines is a large parish, with the dramatic rescue photos and video coming out of the lower part. Was the Army Corps talking about the entire length of levee system or just the area that abuts greater New Orleans? That's what I wonder too. Part of the levee is already built up IIRC. Perhaps the part that isn't exactly post Katrina updated breached? That is a large area so I don't know what area he specifically mentioned. Anyways here is the impact graphic. Think it speaks for itself. http://w1.weather.go...&threat=coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Unfortunate for most down there, Its not like they can move to higher ground to get away from it unless its a rooftop, Its the price you pay for living at sea level they all know the risks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 LOL at folks fighting over this... tropical 's are the worst. The people who chose to not evacuate are dumasses given the evacuation order. Also the Army Corp is going to have to play damage control given the public statements they made regarding the levees. Not a good idea to spout off on something you cannot guarantee 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Nobody is downplaying anything or said it wasn't bad on the mud strip of a parish. If they didn't evacuate from a storm surge that occurred and was predicted...don't know what to say. Exactly. Obviously some areas will see serious flooding but it certainly is nowhere near a worst case scenario kind of flood. The forecasts were there and in fact the storm was weaker than even forecast. Obviously the slow motion adds to the issue but we shouldn't be shocked at the reports we're getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 That's what I wonder too. Part of the levee is already built up IIRC. Perhaps the part that isn't exactly post Katrina updated breached? That is a large area so I don't know what area he specifically mentioned. Anyways here is the impact graphic. Think it speaks for itself. http://w1.weather.go...&threat=coastal The levees down there in Plaquemines are the same they were in Katrina. Earthen levees at the same height. Again the models, NHC, and NWS really nailed the forecast. There was a mandatory evacuation. There are some people who will see a devastating storm but at the end of the day this was a minimal hurricane that in no way will rival Katrina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 The levees down there in Plaquemines are the same they were in Katrina. Earthen levees at the same height. Again the models, NHC, and NWS really nailed the forecast. There was a mandatory evacuation. There are some people who will see a devastating storm but at the end of the day this was a minimal hurricane that in no way will rival Katrina. my only counterpoint to this is the rainfall amounts..with a stalled storm, if there is 20-25 inch amounts, that could be nasty--that chapter is yet to be written...otherwise agree-run of the mill minimal hurricane hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 my only counterpoint to this is the rainfall amounts..with a stalled storm, if there is 20-25 inch amounts, that could be nasty--that chapter is yet to be written...otherwise agree-run of the mill minimal hurricane hit. Yeah no doubt 20"+ rain is epic. Will be no Alison or Agnes but yeah it will be a big issue. Thankfully the pumps in NO are working and the rainfall issue was well forecast PLUS rivers were quite low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Yeah no doubt 20"+ rain is epic. Will be no Alison or Agnes but yeah it will be a big issue. Thankfully the pumps in NO are working and the rainfall issue was well forecast PLUS rivers were quite low. All good points in this instance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 That's what I wonder too. Part of the levee is already built up IIRC. Perhaps the part that isn't exactly post Katrina updated breached? That is a large area so I don't know what area he specifically mentioned. Anyways here is the impact graphic. Think it speaks for itself. http://w1.weather.go...&threat=coastal Impact statements that include life jackets and an ax to chop through your roof if you choose to stay speak for themselves as well. It's a serious situation down there, and it was always going to be serious. They had at least 48 hours to prepare for this. I have not heard the Army Corps quote, but if they promised the whole stretch of levees that unfortunate and irresponsible considering the mandatory evacuation message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Impact statements that include life jackets and an ax to chop through your roof if you choose to stay speak for themselves as well. It's a serious situation down there, and it was always going to be serious. They had at least 48 hours to prepare for this. I have not heard the Army Corps quote, but if they promised the whole stretch of levees that unfortunate and irresponsible considering the mandatory evacuation message. Yeah I listened to the guy last night. It was bad. Parish president was saying the levees were being overtopped and that they were "concerned" while the Army Corps guy at 9 p.m. said all would be fine, levees were high enough and that the water was receding. Besides that horribly inaccurate and irresponsible message this storm is pretty much behaving AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Yeah I listened to the guy last night. It was bad. Parish president was saying the levees were being overtopped and that they were "concerned" while the Army Corps guy at 9 p.m. said all would be fine, levees were high enough and that the water was receding. Besides that horribly inaccurate and irresponsible message this storm is pretty much behaving AWT. Well that's completely the opposite message that the NHC and LIX were trying to put out there, as well as the parish and state level EMs. I guess I understand the mentality that you don't want to cause panic over the state of New Orleans levees, but it is what it is. You can't ignore what is happening in Plaquemines to assuage the fears of those in New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Well that's completely the opposite message that the NHC and LIX were trying to put out there, as well as the parish and state level EMs. I guess I understand the mentality that you don't want to cause panic over the state of New Orleans levees, but it is what it is. You can't ignore what is happening in Plaquemines to assuage the fears of those in New Orleans. Yup pretty much. It's worth noting too that they were specifically talking about Plaquemines and the levees in a very specific area and the Army Corps guy was giving very specific information on why it would be OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 my only counterpoint to this is the rainfall amounts..with a stalled storm, if there is 20-25 inch amounts, that could be nasty--that chapter is yet to be written...otherwise agree-run of the mill minimal hurricane hit. This is what I brought up yesterday and was asked to leave the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Yup pretty much. It's worth noting too that they were specifically talking about Plaquemines and the levees in a very specific area and the Army Corps guy was giving very specific information on why it would be OK. It appears the latest levee to fail is just across the river southeast of New Orleans (Braithwaite). It is an unfortunate reality that often those levees are smaller to protect the large population on the opposite side of the river. Taking a quick look online, it appears the Mississippi River levees are built to 25', on both sides. However, from the Gulf Plaquemines is protected by levees as low at 13.5'. Additionally, on the western side of the Mississippi the levees aren't federally owned across the northern half of Plaquemines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 It appears the latest levee to fail is just across the river southeast of New Orleans (Braithwaite). It is an unfortunate reality that often those levees are smaller to protect the large population on the opposite side of the river. Taking a quick look online, it appears the Mississippi River levees are built to 25', on both sides. However, from the Gulf Plaquemines is protected by levees as low at 13.5'. Additionally, on the western side of the Mississippi the levees aren't federally owned across the northern half of Plaquemines. Exactly. No hurricane is the same. SE Louisiana is exceptionally vulnerable and this storm was strengthening at landfall. No two category 1 hurricanes are the same and each storm brings a multitudes of threats/hazards. Communicating those is challenging but I think the NWS/NHC did a great job. Not sure about the local media down there. While what happens in Plaquemines is very unfortunate it's not a tremendous surprise given the fact the levees have not been updated since Katrina but I think any met/emergency manager could tell you that the people there are in a very vulnerable spot even for a cat 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 29, 2012 Author Share Posted August 29, 2012 Several days ago I warned that landfall intensity would not likely be above 80kts. I didn't really hear anyone else being too conservative at the time. It's too bad people, even mets, put way too much stock in those horrible tropical models. Weenies wanted a major landfall, talked about RI and monitored the pressure falls for 36 hours consecutively w/out a break...eyes glazed, drooling ....so when that fails, dignity must be protected and the storm will be overplayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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