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NE Tropical Thread


free_man

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i honestly wouldn't be shocked to see this thing ingest more and more dry continental air from the North, and barely maintain it' own/slowly go down hill, not saying this is what is /will happen but i wouldn't be suprised as its gets closer and closer to the La coast, i don't think this gets act together...maybe a cple more MB falls,maybe not, but i think this may get to 75-80 cane, and i think NHC will upgrade at 11am or 5 regardless (so people take it serious) give the expanse of high end tropical storm winds and surge and ya i may get flamed for that comment but there is politics involved at times, and you want to keep the public on alert. hopefully that's not an issue lol and we get a nice SFMR wind unflagged around 67knots and they can do it legitamitely. (instead of now deciding to use a 850 mb flight level wind with a surface reduction, in absense of sfmr readings) and don't confuse me i have the highest respect for the NHC and ALL their decisions!

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It's beyond annoying. There aren't enough facepalm icons for the stuff I am hearing.

There is a reason the NWS is moving towards impact graphics and statements. Because the terms TS or H in this case mean very little to the ultimate forecast. WFO Slidell has changed their impact graphics very little since yesterday (i.e. surge heights, expected damage from wind, rainfall, etc.). Yet somehow the fact that it is or isn't a hurricane means something more.

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There is a reason the NWS is moving towards impact graphics and statements. Because the terms TS or H in this case mean very little to the ultimate forecast. WFO Slidell has changed their impact graphics very little since yesterday (i.e. surge heights, expected damage from wind, rainfall, etc.). Yet somehow the fact that it is or isn't a hurricane means something more.

Exactly, tropical purists are probably more annoyed than anyone.

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There is a reason the NWS is moving towards impact graphics and statements. Because the terms TS or H in this case mean very little to the ultimate forecast. WFO Slidell has changed their impact graphics very little since yesterday (i.e. surge heights, expected damage from wind, rainfall, etc.). Yet somehow the fact that it is or isn't a hurricane means something more.

If you don't mind me asking....do WFOs have restraints if they are in a hurricane warning..yet they may feel the impacts are more TS variety? We obviously see that up this way when hurricanes or even tropical storms pass SE of ACK..yet a hurricane warning is up to Hull MA. I know the agencies must work closely, but I imagine there are times where you know those winds will not occur that far north from an accelerating storm moving to the northeast.

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Like I said before its either super hype or total downplaying. I am proud of myself though, have not watched one second of TWC, CNN FOX.

None here either, I don't usually watch any of those channels anyways, I can interpret to a degree the models and a satellite image or radar so no need to watch folks that no little about weather

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If you don't mind me asking....do WFOs have restraints if they are in a hurricane warning..yet they may feel the impacts are more TS variety? We obviously see that up this way when hurricanes or even tropical storms pass SE of ACK..yet a hurricane warning is up to Hull MA. I know the agencies must work closely, but I imagine there are times where you know those winds will not occur that far north from an accelerating storm moving to the northeast.

The Hurricane warning last year was almost comical...I belive they had it all the way up to the south shore when it was pretty clear they wouldn't experience anything close to hurricane conditions. We might take our local knowledge of climo for granted sometimes, but you would think that in a case like that, it would be a little more obvious.

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The Hurricane warning last year was almost comical...I belive they had it all the way up to the south shore when it was pretty clear they wouldn't experience anything close to hurricane conditions. We might take our local knowledge of climo for granted sometimes, but you would think that in a case like that, it would be a little more obvious.

That was Earl right? I think.

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If you don't mind me asking....do WFOs have restraints if they are in a hurricane warning..yet they may feel the impacts are more TS variety? We obviously see that up this way when hurricanes or even tropical storms pass SE of ACK..yet a hurricane warning is up to Hull MA. I know the agencies must work closely, but I imagine there are times where you know those winds will not occur that far north from an accelerating storm moving to the northeast.

There are restraints in that all the products must match. You don't want a hurricane warning, with zones reading winds 25-35 mph. Likewise, impact graphics and NDFD grids should actually have hurricane impacts somewhere in the warning. This is why we do tropical training every year, so make sure we're up to date on all the products that need to be created. So it can be time consuming to go from one type of warning to another.

However in this case, hurricane headlines have been up for NoLa since yesterday. Their products have been pushing the hurricane impacts for that long. I'm sure Slidell is completely prepared for it to get the magical upgrade in naming convention.

Of course like you said, there are cases where headlines go up to be on the safe side and WFOs can get boxed into putting impacts in the forecast that are unlikely to occur. And it's more likely in this region because we're usually transitioning to extra-tropical. That's what the conference calls are for. I can't speak to it since I have yet to be involved with a tropical forecast (worked at DVN, then happened to be off for the entirety of Irene), but I feel like there is less wiggle with those systems. It either is or isn't a hurricane, or it is or isn't a tropical storm. But we certainly get our input on whether that hurricane watch becomes a H or TS warning.

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The Hurricane warning last year was almost comical...I belive they had it all the way up to the south shore when it was pretty clear they wouldn't experience anything close to hurricane conditions. We might take our local knowledge of climo for granted sometimes, but you would think that in a case like that, it would be a little more obvious.

That is probably the biggest example within this office of having our hands tied by an overly aggressive forecast.

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There are restraints in that all the products must match. You don't want a hurricane warning, with zones reading winds 25-35 mph. Likewise, impact graphics and NDFD grids should actually have hurricane impacts somewhere in the warning. This is why we do tropical training every year, so make sure we're up to date on all the products that need to be created. So it can be time consuming to go from one type of warning to another.

However in this case, hurricane headlines have been up for NoLa since yesterday. Their products have been pushing the hurricane impacts for that long. I'm sure Slidell is completely prepared for it to get the magical upgrade in naming convention.

Of course like you said, there are cases where headlines go up to be on the safe side and WFOs can get boxed into putting impacts in the forecast that are unlikely to occur. And it's more likely in this region because we're usually transitioning to extra-tropical. That's what the conference calls are for. I can't speak to it since I have yet to be involved with a tropical forecast (worked at DVN, then happened to be off for the entirety of Irene), but I feel like there is less wiggle with those systems. It either is or isn't a hurricane, or it is or isn't a tropical storm. But we certainly get our input on whether that hurricane watch becomes a H or TS warning.

Yeah exactly...thinking more in this area. I feel like it's an area that needs a little work. Not necessarily the WFOs fault, but sometimes I feel like they are forced into a corner with this stuff.

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Did they have them in Earl too? That would be pretty bad if they got it up to the south shore for that weak swirl.

earl was a joke here-we had a 10 minute shower and no wind...yet neighbors were putting all their lawn furniture in the garage as the media was acting like it was 1938 all over again-ridiculous.

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i guess they want the public to learn to take tropical storms seriously, in the future?

wasn't there a dropsponde with hurricane force winds at surface?

I don't think it is so much taking tropical storms seriously as it is taking the impacts of each system seriously. Not all TCs are created equal. In some the wind is the main threat, others it's surge, and still others it's rainfall. Often times none of those depend totally on the category.

I posted this in the main thread about Isaac...

Coastal LA has been under hurricane warnings since yesterday. With the current impact based forecasts still calling for hurricane conditions, the NHC can afford to be scientifically precise with the definition of the storm as it stands at the 15z update because forecasts are still calling for a hurricane. There is way too much focus on the exact term that comes before the name Isaac.

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I don't think it is so much taking tropical storms seriously as it is taking the impacts of each system seriously. Not all TCs are created equal. In some the wind is the main threat, others it's surge, and still others it's rainfall. Often times none of those depend totally on the category.

I posted this in the main thread about Isaac...

Coastal LA has been under hurricane warnings since yesterday. With the current impact based forecasts still calling for hurricane conditions, the NHC can afford to be scientifically precise with the definition of the storm as it stands at the 15z update because forecasts are still calling for a hurricane. There is way too much focus on the exact term that comes before the name Isaac.

That was a good post.

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That was a good post.

Yes it was but it misses the point that Al Roker is waiting breathlessly to announce "We have Hurricane Isaac!"

I think much of the criticism the NHC is taking on Twitter is ridiculous. As was stated, the hurricane warnings have been up for some time. Many in the media just want to HYPE.

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Yes it was but it misses the point that Al Roker is waiting breathlessly to announce "We have Hurricane Isaac!"

I think much of the criticism the NHC is taking on Twitter is ridiculous. As was stated, the hurricane warnings have been up for some time. Many in the media just want to HYPE.

Exactly. If, and most likely when, the NHC bumps winds to 75 mph at the next update, absolutely nothing will change with the current forecast.

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