free_man Posted August 27, 2012 Author Share Posted August 27, 2012 Time to kick back with a good beer and watch tonights gfs porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Still 65 mph this morning-is this thing ever going to become a hurricane? Also, looks like it could miss NO to the west now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Is the KFS still forecasting a cat 5 for NO? Euro nailed the pressure this morning from yesterdays run, skeptical of such intensification prior to landfall in shallow waters that have been upwelled prior to landfall. Weaker the better, hopefully it just falls apart completely, ULL doing its nasty work and very slow to exit stage left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 This could be an epic KFS fail. FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Yup If this is a threat, its to the Caribbean and Gulf. Looks as though the NAO is trending towards neutral in the upcoming days. Flow is looking more zonal across the conus. The Alt ridge also looks to build W, preventing any curve to the N until at least Hispaniola. Not bad for an amateur. The bump trolling of Kevin we could do on Isaac are gems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Bang the bass turn up the treble...The cane train is calling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 What were the peak winds in Tampa, 35mph? All those hurricane warnings for south florida all busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 FL is getting raked by very intense feederbands. This is where the highest wind gusts have been thus far. I like the WV imagery wrt intensification. Appears the dry air has been scoured and looks more symetric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Euro 952 Just East of NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 FL is getting raked by very intense feederbands. This is where the highest wind gusts have been thus far. I like the WV imagery wrt intensification. Appears the dry air has been scoured and looks more symetric. Much like Irene here. Until this thing develops a robust core, winds will not be the greatest threat with this system. Rain, floods, and storm surge will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Much like Irene here. Until this thing develops a robust core, winds will not be the greatest threat with this system. Rain, floods, and storm surge will. Agreed. Redflags of caution. Intensity very tricky. Saving grace is Isaac running out of room. After days of reading about RI. Land interaction, dry air, vertical structure.....blah, blah, blah First time in it's lifecycle the thunderstorms have had staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Much like Irene here. Until this thing develops a robust core, winds will not be the greatest threat with this system. Rain, floods, and storm surge will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Yeah I saw your FB post Steve. This storm is large so there will be a lot of water being pushed up to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 if this storm gets to cat 4 or more kev i will buy you unlimited drinks at every get together we have till eternity. i won't be shocked if this thing can even become a cane. extremely skeptical of euro 20mb pressure drop (on 0z run) from hr 48 to 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 if this storm gets to cat 4 or more kev i will buy you unlimited drinks at every get together we have till eternity. i won't be shocked if this thing can even become a cane. extremely skeptical of euro 20mb pressure drop (on 0z run) from hr 48 to 60. I think way too much emphasis being played out on winds as Bobby said,other than Josh preening for a Cat 2-3 winds, forward speed, length of fetch, amount of rain will be the biggest story. Best example around here would be the perfect storm. Stall any deep low pressure for 24 hours with a long fetch and waves get tremendous along with surge. Where and if this stalls will make all the difference in the world for the coast. Even if this only has 95 MPH winds you have to respect forward movement. It will run into a wall at sometime, questions is on shore or offshore. Interesting storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I think way too much emphasis being played out on winds as Bobby said,other than Josh preening for a Cat 2-3 winds, forward speed, length of fetch, amount of rain will be the biggest story. Best example around here would be the perfect storm. Stall any deep low pressure for 24 hours with a long fetch and waves get tremendous along with surge. Where and if this stalls will make all the difference in the world for the coast. Even if this only has 95 MPH winds you have to respect forward movement. It will run into a wall at sometime, questions is on shore or offshore. Interesting storm. this storm will have a relatively large area of TS force winds (i'm not banking on a large an area of (75-100 mph winds) but if it slows and piles water for a few tide cycles it will be bad, esp if it can get up to 90-100 mph, not sold that it can. yes well i think referring to the perfect storm ....the high pressure that flanked that storm ...in addition to the sheer size of that extra tropical low....i would say the windfield was expontially larger. in fact im pretty confident the fetch was about 4x as long at least. i know i know always be prepared and the euro has a 952 mb pressure (?) so it is def worth keeping the guard high. A met on another board i highly respect had commented 5 days ago that modeled mid level temps in the GOM were forecast to be high and thus instability low (comparable to late may /early june GOM stabililty) and i think this is something that should be mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I think way too much emphasis being played out on winds as Bobby said,other than Josh preening for a Cat 2-3 winds, forward speed, length of fetch, amount of rain will be the biggest story. Best example around here would be the perfect storm. Stall any deep low pressure for 24 hours with a long fetch and waves get tremendous along with surge. Where and if this stalls will make all the difference in the world for the coast. Even if this only has 95 MPH winds you have to respect forward movement. It will run into a wall at sometime, questions is on shore or offshore. Interesting storm. Especially with a track like Isaac where your maximizing the southerly and easterly components up into the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Much like Irene here. Until this thing develops a robust core, winds will not be the greatest threat with this system. Rain, floods, and storm surge will. I agree. This system has always struck me as one that was just destined to be plagued by something its entire life, and never really put it together. Minimal cane, tops at landfall. I have seen a pro met making dire posts on FB that the "conscensus" intensity upon LF in LA was a 125 mph cane......I was polite, and very reserved, simply stating that 125 seemed high. WTF is he smoking?? Same guy who kept telling everyone that the pattern was changing last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I agree. This system has always struck me as one that was just destined to be plagued by something its entire life, and never really put it together. Minimal cane, tops at landfall. I have seen a pro met making dire posts on FB that the "conscensus" intensity upon LF in LA was a 125 mph cane......I was polite, and very reserved, simply stating that 125 seemed high. WTF is he smoking?? Same guy who kept telling everyone that the pattern was changing last winter. Same pro met who said it "should" rival Katrina? Just plain irresponsible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Same pro met who said it "should" rival Katrina? Just plain irresponsible. As Rev Kev says, hype sells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Same pro met who said it "should" rival Katrina? Just plain irresponsible. Yep, same guy..........I think he should have stayed in the hospital a bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 As Rev Kev says, hype sells. I guess at the expense of looking foolish and making a mockery of the science Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I guess at the expense of looking foolish and making a mockery of the science Don't want to bash him too much since he is a member here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Same pro met who said it "should" rival Katrina? Just plain irresponsible. I don't understand why pro's throw this kind of talk around. They must know that they have a really good chance of busting. With that being said is it really worth taking the slim chance spouting hype/launguage like that so you can be praised, knowing that when/ if wrong the failure may bring about a negative public opinion of you, at least for a short while. Are these guys really looking for the glory shot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I don't understand why pro's throw this kind of talk around. They must know that they have a really good chance of busting. With that being said is it really worth taking the slim chance spouting hype/launguage like that so you can be praised, knowing that when/ if wrong the failure may bring about a negative public opinion of you, at least for a short while. Are these guys really looking for the glory shot? I agree, we know that there are certain phrases or events that bring about a very clear picture in the public's mind. You say Katrina down there and it means something very serious. Similarly, if we use the term ice storm for a tenth of an inch of ice up here, the public (and EMs, etc.) picture '98. We are all supposed to provide a public service, and casually throwing out worst case scenarios is no service and only serves to exacerbate the frenzied preparation. But those statements get you air time and web hits, and inevitably that's the message that gets out. Unfortunately, I also think there is little consequence to throwing these calls out there. Overriding public opinion is we suck at our jobs anyway, so one met making one bad call gets buried in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I don't understand why pro's throw this kind of talk around. They must know that they have a really good chance of busting. With that being said is it really worth taking the slim chance spouting hype/launguage like that so you can be praised, knowing that when/ if wrong the failure may bring about a negative public opinion of you, at least for a short while. Are these guys really looking for the glory shot? Basically. It doesn't do us any good at all with loose cannons like that going around. It causes people to say.."they said it would be worse than Katrina" etc and they will remember quotes that when it doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I agree, we know that there are certain phrases or events that bring about a very clear picture in the public's mind. You say Katrina down there and it means something very serious. Similarly, if we use the term ice storm for a tenth of an inch of ice up here, the public (and EMs, etc.) picture '98. We are all supposed to provide a public service, and casually throwing out worst case scenarios is no service and only serves to exacerbate the frenzied preparation. But those statements get you air time and web hits, and inevitably that's the message that gets out. Unfortunately, I also think there is little consequence to throwing these calls out there. Overriding public opinion is we suck at our jobs anyway, so one met making one bad call gets buried in that. That's true as well, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Unfortunately, I also think there is little consequence to throwing these calls out there. Overriding public opinion is we suck at our jobs anyway, so one met making one bad call gets buried in that. lol with a bit of ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 The 324hr GFS Fantasycast says we do this all again in two weeks. lol http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20120827/06/gfs_namer_324_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Especially with a track like Isaac where your maximizing the southerly and easterly components up into the coast. Not only the track but the timing. Everything seems to really want to slow it down as it approaches the coast...that will just enlongate everything, including the tides through potentially multiple cycles. I hate seeing the hype from this too both from a meteorological and polical point of view. Frustrating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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