Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Many are erring on the side of greater intensity, me thinks. A 70 or 80kt landfall is more realistic at this point than 120kt . That's not a huge deal for the region. Yes, a big storm. A major landfall is a threat, of course. Accurate intensity forecasting requires very refined forecasting nuance and skill, and even then can fail. Totally disagree, the upper levels and outflow channels look pretty damn good the next few days. CUmet, one our boards best seems very concerned. Like Scooter said world of difference on a peaked cane destructing moving quickly than an intensifying slow mover. Nothing determined but each run seems to deepen this, we are inside the Euro 72 hr window. Full moon is not to be downplayed either, track is unbelievably huge to this country the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Regardless, this will likely bring an impressive wall of water to somebody in the gulf...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Anywhere it hits it will be bad. Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Big Joe saying Cat 3 possibly 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 DT says GFS shows a stall and disaster for NOLA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 DT says GFS shows a stall and disaster for NOLA. Total if true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Drove through the land of sultan today coming back from the Cape. Chose the 195-Rt 6 route to avoid traffic on the Pike. Steve... I waved at the Moosup sign on 395. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Drove through the land of sultan today coming back from the Cape. Chose the 195-Rt 6 route to avoid traffic on the Pike. Steve... I waved at the Moosup sign on 395. How was it? Swim with the sharks? Was Forky being thrashed around by a great white? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 How was it? Swim with the sharks? Was Forky being thrashed around by a great white? lol didn't see Forky... but I don't think he's big enough for the sharks to bother with him. Great time... phenomenal weather. Went to Marconi Beach in Wellfleet today then late lunch in Orleans. Sad to be back home but lots to watch with Isaac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Isaac looks pretty good tonight I think it's finally starting to get its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 lol didn't see Forky... but I don't think he's big enough for the sharks to bother with him. Great time... phenomenal weather. Went to Marconi Beach in Wellfleet today then late lunch in Orleans. Sad to be back home but lots to watch with Isaac. Marconi beach is amazing isn't it? Like a scene from Lost. Yeah I'm now back from vacation myself and watching Isaac. Should be real busy for me tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Just filled up. Prices same for the moment Marconi is gorgeous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Marconi beach is amazing isn't it? Like a scene from Lost. Yeah I'm now back from vacation myself and watching Isaac. Should be real busy for me tomorrow. When I was a kid and we spent a lot of time on the Cape we did Marconi at least a few days a summer. I was too late to do the Beachcomber this morning so just did Marconi. It's definitely my favorite beach on the Cape... though Race Point is a close second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 The peak wind in Key West was 35 gusting to 54, and the peak wind in CON from Irene was 30 gusting to 52. The zone forecast there called for 55-75 with gusts to 90 this morning. Just imagine their disappointment. I saw a guy on the Duval street webcam walking down the sidewalk wearing full snorkel gear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 The peak wind in Key West was 35 gusting to 54, and the peak wind in CON from Irene was 30 gusting to 52. The zone forecast there called for 55-75 with gusts to 90 this morning. Just imagine their disappointment. I saw a guy on the Duval street webcam walking down the sidewalk wearing full snorkel gear. Yeah the point and click for Earl down here was atrocious. I'm sure they try to keep continuity with the warnings, but as we know here...the nrn sides of tropical cyclones suck for wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 The peak wind in Key West was 35 gusting to 54, and the peak wind in CON from Irene was 30 gusting to 52. The zone forecast there called for 55-75 with gusts to 90 this morning. Just imagine their disappointment. I saw a guy on the Duval street webcam walking down the sidewalk wearing full snorkel gear. Is that unusal for Duval Street? Pretty meh there thankfully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Is that unusal for Duval Street? Probably... I've seen a lot but that was a new one for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Yeah the point and click for Earl down here was atrocious. I'm sure they try to keep continuity with the warnings, but as we know here...the nrn sides of tropical cyclones suck for wind. I have a huge problem with NWS forecasts during hurricanes/tropical storms. The numbers being tossed around during Irene were obscene.. and unfortunately those numbers get repeated by emergency management and some in the media. Then at the end of the day the storm winds up "being a bust" because of the wind grids taken form NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I have a huge problem with NWS forecasts during hurricanes/tropical storms. The numbers being tossed around during Irene were obscene.. and unfortunately those numbers get repeated by emergency management and some in the media. Then at the end of the day the storm winds up "being a bust" because of the wind grids taken form NHC. I know...I wish there was a better way of putting our climo intuition into the NWS forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Amazing how the Euro is so accurate on tropical storms-had the mid gulf hit from a week ago.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Amazing how the Euro is so accurate on tropical storms-had the mid gulf hit from a week ago.... Yeah but it's been so erratic. Almost right for the wrong reason. Not to thrilled about its performance with TCs. Now it's east of everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Drove through the land of sultan today coming back from the Cape. Chose the 195-Rt 6 route to avoid traffic on the Pike. Steve... I waved at the Moosup sign on 395. LOL I am at exit 91 or at the spilt when 6 goes to 395 you stay on 6. Repaving 395 you just missed this mornings traffic jam, I got off as soon as I got on. Tonight was no traffic. Sounds like an awesome vacation, some of the best beaches in the world right here in NE. Isaac the Incredible looks like a tough one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Cumet, LEK George, Al Hurricane are the folks you really want to pay attention to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 27, 2012 Author Share Posted August 27, 2012 Cumet, LEK George, Al Hurricane are the folks you really want to pay attention to. Most people can see/read the difference between the weenie wanna-bes and experts. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I love weenie on weenie action on the banter thread. lol Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Most people can see/read the difference between the weenie wanna-bes and experts. lol Some red taggers with little experience or Trop training have flip flopped more than a butterfish on the beach. I have been around for a while, I know who is top notch, not so sure about other folks. I saw two posts on a FB met page referring to Met posts at AMWX that they had taken as gospel. The AMWX posts were as wrong as could be, just sayin. At any rate holy sh it, New Orleans seems game on, unless this skirts at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 This can not be good. http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/ww3/ww3_sigwave_gulf.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 GFS is locked in on a stalled direct NO hit from the worst direction, have to see how good it is. Epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 New Orleans is in deep do-do. The best analysis and forecast on AMWX........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 New Orleans is in deep do-do.The best analysis and forecast on AMWX........... lol, that was not on the main thread.Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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