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NE Tropical Thread


free_man

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At this rate the Globals tending to track further W. Texas is becoming plausible. No reason to refute the trend. ULL underneath, building ridge to the N. Ultimate track determined which has greater influence and where the weakness eventually sets-up.

Presently GRlevel has the bandings getting it's act together. Nothing to impede intensification.

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Models have definitely converged in a general area of the Gulf Coast between LA/MI Still pretty wide spread though. Progression of the trough over the US as well of the UL Ridge over the SW will ultimately decide where this thing goes. Personally, I'd be making preparations if I lived anywhere along the general area.

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Many are erring on the side of greater intensity, me thinks. ;) A 70 or 80kt landfall is more realistic at this point than 120kt . That's not a huge deal for the region. Yes, a big storm.

A major landfall is a threat, of course. Accurate intensity forecasting requires very refined forecasting nuance and skill, and even then can fail.

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Many are erring on the side of greater intensity, me thinks. ;) A 70 or 80kt landfall is more realistic at this point than 120kt . That's not a huge deal for the region. Yes, a big storm.

A major landfall is a threat, of course. Accurate intensity forecasting requires very refined forecasting nuance and skill, and even then can fail.

Yeah I don't have a good feeling regarding intensity because that pesky ULL might screw things up. If models are right..it could ramp up fast though so we'll see.

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Disconcerting to see the 12z Op Euro go ballistic right before landfall.

Yeah people should remember too that an intensifying hurricane prior to landfall can pack a lot of punch. It's usually more ferocious than a hurricane of the same strength remaining static as it approaches land.

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Yeah I don't have a good feeling regarding intensity because that pesky ULL might screw things up. If models are right..it could ramp up fast though so we'll see.

A hiccup like Frederick is worth noting (943mb to 946 very slight weakening), but most systems do not maintain intensity up to lf.

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A hiccup like Frederick is worth noting (943mb to 946 very slight weakening), but most systems do not maintain intensity up to lf.

Another thing to consider too. This may apply more for storms that bomb out in the middle of the Gulf and then level out. It's possible this gets its act together in the middle of its treck through the Gulf and closer to landfall. Just speculation though.

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