Ginx snewx Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 awesome read about airplane schedules in the pinned thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 lol I meant 980...whoops...der 987 wow. I need to learn how to type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 http://www.floridakeyswebcams.tv/ Nice, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 If the Euro trends west today, the GGem will not be far off. GFS looks like the GGEM only East. This could get caught in a cul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 970 with 15 -20 inches of rain with hurricane force winds into La for 24 hours Thanks Wish I could post more to dissect the land interaction right now, internet really spotty so really behind on data/obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Thanks Wish I could post more to dissect the land interaction right now, internet really spotty so really behind on data/obs Put it this way the remnants of Helene in the middle Atlantic Virginia area looks better. But it's off the coast again, we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I confess I've spent zilch time paying attention to anything tropical. Now, I can't see much since I'm away from my computer. Any sense of tropical rains making it up this way? Perhaps time to do some overseeding when I get back tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I confess I've spent zilch time paying attention to anything tropical. Now, I can't see much since I'm away from my computer. Any sense of tropical rains making it up this way? Perhaps time to do some overseeding when I get back tomorrow. QPF Ho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 QPF Ho LOL. I have thoughts of Irene's flooding fresh in my mind and reminders whenever I travel htrough much of GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I'm thinking between NO-Biloxi for landfall high end cat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 26, 2012 Author Share Posted August 26, 2012 0z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 26, 2012 Author Share Posted August 26, 2012 :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Holy crap! Just looked at the 06Z GFS. N.O. basically gets creamed on from hour 51- hour 102!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Wow, the 12z GFS just pummels the LA coast as Isaac straddles the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Wow, the 12z GFS just pummels the LA coast as Isaac straddles the coast. Whats the strength bob? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Whats the strength bob? Looks like ~980-984mb at it's lowest. Track parallels the LA coast, just pummeling it and move inland basically on the TX/LA border, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 At this rate the Globals tending to track further W. Texas is becoming plausible. No reason to refute the trend. ULL underneath, building ridge to the N. Ultimate track determined which has greater influence and where the weakness eventually sets-up. Presently GRlevel has the bandings getting it's act together. Nothing to impede intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Forbes on the potential impact on oil/gas prices: http://www.forbes.com/sites/weatherbell/2012/08/26/tropical-storm-isaac-should-rival-hurricane-katrina/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Worst case on the table now, add a Full Moon, boy the way it's organizing and the upper air support looks ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Hopefully it can go more east it head into the Panhandle of FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 26, 2012 Author Share Posted August 26, 2012 Hopefully it can go more east it head into the Panhandle of FL. Why is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Models have definitely converged in a general area of the Gulf Coast between LA/MI Still pretty wide spread though. Progression of the trough over the US as well of the UL Ridge over the SW will ultimately decide where this thing goes. Personally, I'd be making preparations if I lived anywhere along the general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Why is that? Because a direct hit on NO or mobile bay is much much worse tha P Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Why is that? Well it would not be a good thing for NOLA or the oil and gas fields. I obviously am not trying to "wish" destruction on anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 26, 2012 Author Share Posted August 26, 2012 Many are erring on the side of greater intensity, me thinks. A 70 or 80kt landfall is more realistic at this point than 120kt . That's not a huge deal for the region. Yes, a big storm. A major landfall is a threat, of course. Accurate intensity forecasting requires very refined forecasting nuance and skill, and even then can fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Many are erring on the side of greater intensity, me thinks. A 70 or 80kt landfall is more realistic at this point than 120kt . That's not a huge deal for the region. Yes, a big storm. A major landfall is a threat, of course. Accurate intensity forecasting requires very refined forecasting nuance and skill, and even then can fail. Yeah I don't have a good feeling regarding intensity because that pesky ULL might screw things up. If models are right..it could ramp up fast though so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Yeah I don't have a good feeling regarding intensity because that pesky ULL might screw things up. If models are right..it could ramp up fast though so we'll see. Disconcerting to see the 12z Op Euro go ballistic right before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Disconcerting to see the 12z Op Euro go ballistic right before landfall. Yeah people should remember too that an intensifying hurricane prior to landfall can pack a lot of punch. It's usually more ferocious than a hurricane of the same strength remaining static as it approaches land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 26, 2012 Author Share Posted August 26, 2012 Yeah I don't have a good feeling regarding intensity because that pesky ULL might screw things up. If models are right..it could ramp up fast though so we'll see. A hiccup like Frederick is worth noting (943mb to 946 very slight weakening), but most systems do not maintain intensity up to lf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 A hiccup like Frederick is worth noting (943mb to 946 very slight weakening), but most systems do not maintain intensity up to lf. Another thing to consider too. This may apply more for storms that bomb out in the middle of the Gulf and then level out. It's possible this gets its act together in the middle of its treck through the Gulf and closer to landfall. Just speculation though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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