free_man Posted August 8, 2012 Author Share Posted August 8, 2012 A big difference is that hurricanes tend to hit when trees have full foliage... I still think you are correct, Ryan, even if all things are the same... but I think some of our stronger winter-time nor'easters could produce similar tree damage if they hit in the middle of full foliage and tree growth. Even fall storms in say October hit when trees are hardening up for the winter and leaves are weakening their hold. S to SE wind direction makes a difference, as it's an unusual dir for strong sustained winds. Also any PRE event/ saturated, loose ground prior to, which is less of a factor in the colder months. Other differences , too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 That was my opinion too, until a few years ago I read some books and historical stuff on it. Wasn't a huge deal for most (similar to Bob), but winds were sustained like 100 on Block Island. Lots of damage s coast/cape. You're right, the overseas headlines were a bigger deal. That also happened in '38 and '91, too. lol Yeah with the offshore track places like BID and the Cape were hit much harder. Strongest winds were out of the north which lead to meh flooding. I'd be interested to see the amount of inland damage from a storm like 44. Hartford I think was 5-min sustained at 50mph out of the north (the extreme velocity readings are all over the place and likely inaccurate) so that should cause quite a bit of tree damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 S to SE wind direction makes a difference, as it's an unusual dir for strong sustained winds. Also any PRE event/ saturated, loose ground prior to, which is less of a factor in the colder months. Other differences , too. This is huge. 1938 is perfect example of this with the number of trees that were uprooted. It had been pouring prior to the event (PRE and ULL) so even areas along the storm track were quite vulnerable to tree damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 SNE has no idea what they would be in for, if a CAT II hit BDR or HVN. if it's anything like wilma in central broward county i will say that was the most amazing weather event of my life , hands down. to a home owner...i would be cutting trees down (that threaten my house)in the days preceeding it however possible. Here in SNE a storm racing north and plowing into CT/RI would throw a wall of water that would probably do untold $ these days. I think the economic impact to RI/CT/SE mass and cape could be quite troubling to a already hobbling economy. OT but every year i still think that the place most vulnerable to a present day multi thousand fatality storm is in the key's of florida if a Cat 4/5 ever rolls thru and drown the whole damn complacent chain. They don't evacuate on the key's .esp Kwest 80% will not move. and one day their luck will run out and it will be a historic tragedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 We should make a rule not the post any GFS images beyond 120 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 It's coming and soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 It's coming and soon May the Force be with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 We should make a rule not the post any GFS images beyond 24 hrs. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Let's get the subtropical ridge tendencies + over on this side of the Hemisphere so one of these CV cyclones can long track. Interestingly the the GFS keeps pegging the current, albeit very impressive TW that is located some 1000 clicks over African transit still, as a fast moving long track TC. A cursory eval of the oper. UKMET and Euro from overnight does show they too have some entity in transit. I find this interesting that Africa is sending these healthy zygotes... The MJO and other tools developed for determining pan-probabilities are all kind of muting the Atlantic Basin for the next 20 or so days, yet these healthy waves trundling along. Maybe it's a matter of poor timing, and if the U/A velocity potentials were reversed we'd have multi-concern issues going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 I wish the 6z 384hr gfs would come true for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 A big difference is that hurricanes tend to hit when trees have full foliage... I still think you are correct, Ryan, even if all things are the same... but I think some of our stronger winter-time nor'easters could produce similar tree damage if they hit in the middle of full foliage and tree growth. Even fall storms in say October hit when trees are hardening up for the winter and leaves are weakening their hold. I'll also 2nd that, though it's different in conifer country, where the most widespread windthrow comes from fall-winter ET storms. Of course, those areas lie further inland and so rarely get really strong TC winds - exceptions are 1938 and 1944, especially the former which remained powerful and also tracked west of Maine. Most of the blowdowns from our most recent strong TCs, Gloria and Bob, were in hardwoods. One stand of aspen on a State lot NW of LEW was 2/3 horizontal after Bob, with 1/3 pointing NW and 1/3 pointing SE - strongest backside winds of any TC of my experience, though 95% of the rain was frontside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 @wxrisk.com MONSTER TROPICAL WAVE coming off sw Africa Thurs. Could become MAJOR Hurricane. Long Range pattern HINTS at east coast threat after 8/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 lets hope so blizz ...lets hope so not much to add other than the fact that a few mets have posted the last 10 days or august look to be more favorable for development (and not speaking from a climo perspective) so hopefully we get something going soon. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_England_hurricanes imagine the weenies on this board chasing in S coastal SNE. get a hotel room or two with a bunch of us....libations....wx models and 100 mph gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 lets hope so blizz ...lets hope so not much to add other than the fact that a few mets have posted the last 10 days or august look to be more favorable for development (and not speaking from a climo perspective) so hopefully we get something going soon. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_England_hurricanes imagine the weenies on this board chasing in S coastal SNE. get a hotel room or two with a bunch of us....libations....wx models and 100 mph gusts Basically sounds like you're planning for everyone to naked with you on the bottom of the pile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 @wxrisk.com MONSTER TROPICAL WAVE coming off sw Africa Thurs. Could become MAJOR Hurricane. Long Range pattern HINTS at east coast threat after 8/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Let's get the subtropical ridge tendencies + over on this side of the Hemisphere so one of these CV cyclones can long track. Interestingly the the GFS keeps pegging the current, albeit very impressive TW that is located some 1000 clicks over African transit still, as a fast moving long track TC. A cursory eval of the oper. UKMET and Euro from overnight does show they too have some entity in transit. I find this interesting that Africa is sending these healthy zygotes... The MJO and other tools developed for determining pan-probabilities are all kind of muting the Atlantic Basin for the next 20 or so days, yet these healthy waves trundling along. Maybe it's a matter of poor timing, and if the U/A velocity potentials were reversed we'd have multi-concern issues going on. Talk dirty, Tippy...talk dirty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 It hard to get pumped for a threat here until its obvious we will get hit. Even last year was pretty underwhelming compared to what might have been if it was moving a lot faster. It took a perfect track to crush us, but just weakened a lot. You can imagine how much worse the power outages and damage might have been given that it produced a lot despite not even being a hurricane at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Basically sounds like you're planning for everyone to naked with you on the bottom of the pile. Mouth open and arms stretched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 It hard to get pumped for a threat here until its obvious we will get hit. Even last year was pretty underwhelming compared to what might have been if it was moving a lot faster. It took a perfect track to crush us, but just weakened a lot. You can imagine how much worse the power outages and damage might have been given that it produced a lot despite not even being a hurricane at landfall. Bingo.....only bothering with this BC I have exhausted the winter thread, and already trolled the banter thread. Slow day at work.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 I can't get excited about New England tropical talk unless it is a) historic stuff - Hazel, Donna, etc right on our doorstep... and we know how that typically ends up. The Ernesto/chase thread was entertaining/enlightening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 9, 2012 Author Share Posted August 9, 2012 D7-10 5h anomalies and overall pattern are interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 D7-10 5h anomalies and overall pattern are interesting. I always perk up when I see a deep trough over the midwest in late August and September and blocking to our NE..Now we just need a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Buoy South of Islip now right about 26º, and one of the 12Z GFS ensemble members hits or barely misses Eastern Long Island with a sub 984 mb storm from 94L (Time steps make it impossible to tell if it actually hits). 12Z ensemble trend is your friend. 94L recurve coming later and later as compared to earlier ensemble runs. 94L may be NYC subforums chance at a storm this year, and perhaps a storm on par w/ Gloria. Awfully early, low confidence, but I'm a natural optimist. Reposted from NYC tropical thread. My Mom and Grandmother are/were from North Quincy and we did some Summers in Harwichport and Marshfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 time to start checking the bookmarks and remembering all the favorite tropical sites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Labor Day weekend is starting to look mighty interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 17, 2012 Author Share Posted August 17, 2012 Edouard redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Edouard redux that'd work OK for you and I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 LOL figured Ed would be posting here this week. Always the threat time, every year. Good surf is all I want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Weenies as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Weenies as usual. We've been talking about the pattern allowing for a 38 type storm up the coast..nice to see it starting to be modelled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.