Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 1938 meet 2012 From all reports the water was cool in 38 and was only noticeably warmer that morning. There were many cold frontal passages that month prior with NW winds, what SNEers call line storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Fishing buddies report 72 isotherm is 30 feet deep off the coast. Some might belittle the impact but this is torch in the ocean. The SSTs around my neck of the woods are really astounding this year. Most of the beaches on the atlantic coast of Nova Scotia are running around 21c. One beach close to me had a water temp of 23c last week. Norm is about 17c. I see the temps down your way are just as crazy. If a TC can get up the coast, it could be interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 The SSTs around my neck of the woods are really astounding this year. Most of the beaches on the atlantic coast of Nova Scotia are running around 21c. One beach close to me had a water temp of 23c last week. Norm is about 17c. I see the temps down your way are just as crazy. If a TC can get up the coast, it could be interesting for sure. More a function of the depth of higher temps. The structure, shear, forward movement are all much bigger factors. SSTs do not matter much for a storm moving 40 mph transitioning. I suppose a slower fully developed system might stay better organized if all other conditions are favorable. My thoughts are increased fuel for cold core winter storms, IE better thermal contrast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 More a function of the depth of higher temps. The structure, shear, forward movement are all much bigger factors. SSTs do not matter much for a storm moving 40 mph transitioning. I suppose a slower fully developed system might stay better organized if all other conditions are favorable. My thoughts are increased fuel for cold core winter storms, IE better thermal contrast. True about the other factors but it can't hurt having some toasty waters around. Regardless of its effects, it makes for some great swimming. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Back in August of 1984 I camped at Ingonish on Cape Breton. The SST's that Summer were really warm for so far north. I remember they would write the daily water temp on a blackboard and it was running 21C each day. Not sure if any tropical systems made it up that year, but some nice swimming. True about the other factors but it can't hurt having some toasty waters around. Regardless of its effects, it makes for some great swimming. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 24, 2012 Author Share Posted August 24, 2012 From all reports the water was cool in 38 and was only noticeably warmer that morning. There were many cold frontal passages that month prior with NW winds, what SNEers call line storms. What type of oceanic obs system was in place in 1938? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 What type of oceanic obs system was in place in 1938? Fisherman, coastal residents, many interviews in the historical records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Fisherman, coastal residents, many interviews in the historical records. Boston was+1.3 Aug 38 -3.3 Sept 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 24, 2012 Author Share Posted August 24, 2012 Boston was+1.3 Aug 38 -3.3 Sept 38 Yeah, I bet they dipped a bit after that monster tore into the GS and further into coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 1938 meet 2012 Yeah, NW flow is really conducive to New England hurricanes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Yeah, NW flow is really conducive to New England hurricanes I think is was talking about SSTs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Don't SSTs mean little to nothing above a certain latitude? Granted, warm SSTs couldn't hurt any... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 I think is was talking about SSTs SSTs don't magically spawn hurricanes south of Long Island. It's like saying during the winter, because the temperature is below freezing, 2012 meet January 2005. Shouldn't even be discussed unless there's actually a favorable flow regime. That's the limiting factor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Don't SSTs mean little to nothing above a certain latitude? Granted, warm SSTs couldn't hurt any... I posted that earlier but Kerry Emanuel from MIT thinks if a slow mover under ideal conditions deterioration rates would be less, makes sense really. It is all about the totality of environmental conditions, SSTs being a part of that totality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 I osted that earlier but Kerry Emanuel from MIT thinks if a slow mover under ideal conditions deterioration rates would be less, makes sense really. It is all about the totality of environmental conditions, SSTs being a part of that totality. Well, yeah, that makes sense. Certainly would not hurt. At least it is keeping Chatham interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Can I just say those Google Earth posts with the plane graphic are ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Can I just say Isaac from The Love Boat was more interesting than this uncentered unstacked thunderstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Can I just say Isaac from The Love Boat was more interesting than this uncentered unstacked thunderstorm true, but a good learning experience for a novie like me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 true, but a good learning experience for a novie like me. True. I really had some hope for a decent GOM storm though. Maybe it will pull through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 The GFS has been better than the euro with this thing. Even though I was first to bring it into the gulf, the euro has been erratic. GFS has been slow and steady to change with is good from a forecaster standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 The Blue hill web site is just a wonderful source of info. Can you imagine how this board would be if we had a 5 week period like this. These are winds and precip on Blue Hill from trop storms http://www.bluehill.org/climate/climate.html 8/31/1954 Carol H2 2.46 125, SE 9/11/1954 Edna H1 5.23 101, NW 10/15/1954 Hazel ET .95 68, SSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Storm could be deepening and stacking, if not it may just shift west and west and west until it skims the yucatan (lol) today is a big day trackwise for isaac, does he move wnw/nw finally or sputter trying to stack himself some more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 I would like to see someone attempt to explain the factors that possibly inhibit or cause and effect to bring a disorganized skewd tempest into a perpedicular (stacked) hurricane? I realize so many variables. i.e Dry air intrusion, multiple vorts at different levels, thermal profiles. To many to list. Weaker systems are driven and track differently as opposed to a mature storm wanting to track poleward. Genesis and degeneration from bottom to top or top to bottom. I just don't know. Might be asking to much but figured it's a good starting point. God forbid you ask in the tropical thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Storm could be deepening and stacking, if not it may just shift west and west and west until it skims the yucatan (lol) today is a big day trackwise for isaac, does he move wnw/nw finally or sputter trying to stack himself some more I could see this exploding heading NNW into Alabama, if it stays farther offshore Florida then it really could ramp up. Upstream environmental conditions are looking better every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 I would like to see someone attempt to explain the factors that possibly inhibit or cause and effect to bring a disorganized skewd tempest into a perpedicular (stacked) hurricane? I realize so many variables. i.e Dry air intrusion, multiple vorts at different levels, thermal profiles. To many to list. Weaker systems are driven and track differently as opposed to a mature storm wanting to track poleward. Genesis and degeneration from bottom to top or top to bottom. I just don't know. Might be asking to much but figured it's a good starting point. God forbid you ask in the tropical thread. The forward motion has been one limiting factor thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 I would like to see someone attempt to explain the factors that possibly inhibit or cause and effect to bring a disorganized skewd tempest into a perpedicular (stacked) hurricane? I realize so many variables. i.e Dry air intrusion, multiple vorts at different levels, thermal profiles. To many to list. Weaker systems are driven and track differently as opposed to a mature storm wanting to track poleward. Genesis and degeneration from bottom to top or top to bottom. I just don't know. Might be asking to much but figured it's a good starting point. God forbid you ask in the tropical thread. http://www.nhc.noaa....rinersguide.pdf Conditions for Development & Intensification The process by which a tropical cyclone develops and subsequently intensifies into a hurricane depends on at least six conditions explained below: 1. A pre-existing surface disturbance with thunderstorms. As warm core systems, tropical cyclones rely on a build up of heat energy within the atmospheric column above them in order to grow and develop. A thunderstorm complex acts as a vertical transport mechanism for heat, moisture, and the cyclonic turning of winds into the upper levels of the atmosphere. This vertical transport into higher levels of the atmosphere aids the incipient tropical cyclone to grow and develop. 2. Relatively moist atmospheric layers in the middle troposphere, approximately 10,000-20,000 ft above the earth’s surface. Dry air at this level of the atmosphere is not favorable for continued development of the required thunderstorm activity in a disturbance. 3. Warm (at least 79ºF or 26ºC) ocean temperatures with a mixed layer depth of about 200 feet. This mixed ocean layer allows warm water to remain available to a developing system even after the wind has begun to increase in speed and the sea surface begins to get churned up by the developing cyclone. 4. Light winds aloft that do not change much in direction and speed throughout the depth of the atmosphere (low vertical wind shear). Tropical cyclones rely on a vertically stacked structure in order to grow or maintain in intensity. In other words, the ideal tropical cyclone will have its cyclonic circulation in the middle & upper levels of the atmosphere located directly above the cyclonic circulation of the surface & low levels of the atmosphere. Increases in wind speed with height will tilt the vertical structure of a tropical cyclone not allowing the system to remain stacked throughout the troposphere. If this vertical tilting of the system persists, growth will become inhibited and the tropical system will decay. 5. Must be poleward of about 5 degrees north latitude in order to meet minimum threshold values for the Coriolis Force. 6. Upper-level outflow over a system serves to remove mass from the top of the vertical column in a tropical cyclone. As a system develops, low-level cyclonic flow pulls more mass towards the center of the system; the flow then turns upward in intense vertical motions associated with thunderstorms in the area. Without a method to dispose of this mass from above the tropical cyclone, low-level converging flow toward the center of the system will be halted and the system will “suffocate”. In a complex relationship, these six factors are interdependent. The absence or change in one of the ingredients often results in a change or loss in one or more of the other factors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 the NHC must be listing 15mph speed due to "continuity". http://www.ssd.noaa....h-vis-long.html perhaps someone who is some good software could plot the 3hr and 6hr movements, but the 3hr movement is very slow . this thing looks like it's digging in for some RI , i honestly wouldn't be shocked if this thing underwent RI and steam rolled western haiti, then got to the FL straits, this system finally looks to have shed ray's drying paint watch (i hope!) and today will be interesthing. seems to me also the nhc may be using the more northern "center" to maintain continuity from their previous forecasting packages, bc recon has found the center well south and then SW again (of their 8am "guestimate) and again (showing a slow NW movement has appeared to begin 305 heading per recon) not to mention significantly higher winds on the latest set of recon obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 You the man Steve. Oh Sultan of Swing. TY I asked for the novice in hope we can all learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 the NHC must be listing 15mph speed due to "continuity". http://www.ssd.noaa....h-vis-long.html perhaps someone who is some good software could plot the 3hr and 6hr movements, but the 3hr movement is very slow . this thing looks like it's digging in for some RI , i honestly wouldn't be shocked if this thing underwent RI and steam rolled western haiti, then got to the FL straits, this system finally looks to have shed ray's drying paint watch (i hope!) and today will be interesthing. seems to me also the nhc may be using the more northern "center" to maintain continuity from their previous forecasting packages, bc recon has found the center well south and then SW again and again (showing a slow NW movement has appeared to begin 305 heading per recon) not to mention significantly higher winds on the latest set of recon obs See my above post, conditions are becoming more conducive for development, vertical alignment is occurring. With an expected brush of Hait and avoidance of extreme terrain, the next obstacle is Cuba's terrain and time spent over Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 See my above post, conditions are becoming more conducive for development, vertical alignment is occurring. With an expected brush of Hait and avoidance of extreme terrain, the next obstacle is Cuba's terrain and time spent over Cuba. If anything the introduction of landmass may help the development of this TC. Slow it down some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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