ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 funny stuff right there I was thinking last night that all this fuss about threads and posting etiquette was much ado about garbage so far... Meanwhile, Euro looks a touch north at 48 hrs vs. 72hr yesterday... may not be good for Hispaniola interaction. Yeah this is akin to the board going haywire in winter about a diving clipper system from Canada that manages to choke out a few flurries before drying up...never going Mauler on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 The level of interaction with Hispanola will be pretty irrelevant if it reamins this poorly organized. agree... poor structure = less sensitive. and along those lines, I'm not sure we even make NHC's call of Cat 1 by tomorrow night, but we'll see how structure looks later tonight track actually quite similar to 12Z yesterday, Euro has been incredibly consistent a deeper low at 96hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Yeah this is akin to the board going haywire in winter about a diving clipper system from Canada that manages to choke out a few flurries before drying up...never going Mauler on us. I find it humorous how little autonomy the local mets display with regard to the tropics.....its so blatantly obvious to even the seasoned hobbyists such as myself, that the TPC is understandably slow to react to trends for the sake of continuity, but to hear some of the local guys spoon-feeding me the forecast that this will be a hurricane by tmw (today), and track up the east coast of FL irritates me such that it harkens back to the Red Sox organization to acknowledge reality. No, Valentine, Ortiz is done, and its an "injury", not an "issue"...despite what Larry has directed you tell the public. No, David Brown, it won't be anything resembling a hurricane, nor will it track up the east coast of FL, despite what TPC is telling you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I find it humorous how little autonomy the local mets display with regard to the tropics.....its so blatantly obvious to even the seasoned hobbyists such as myself, that the TPC is understandably slow to react to trends for the sake of continuity, but to hear some of the local guys spoon feeding you the forecast this this will be a hurricane by tmw (today), and track up the east coast of FL it irritates me such that it harkens back to the Red Sox organization to acknowledge reality. Not just local bro. I have friends on the East coast of Florida saying its a mad rush to get supplies because of the hype. I calmed them down but geesh. FYI he Euro takes the (center) over His. and over Cuba then emerges. I am still Meh until we see exactly how it looks in the GOM, not like its flying along either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 agree... poor structure = less sensitive. and along those lines, I'm not sure we even make NHC's call of Cat 1 by tomorrow night, but we'll see how structure looks later tonight track actually quite similar to 12Z yesterday, Euro has been incredibly consistent a deeper low at 96hr This relates back to my latest point.....treat TPC forecasts as though they are just another model ie, focus on the trend in this range, rather than any given deterministic soloution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 momentary server lapses? Euro continues to be optimistic about GOM development, landfall shifted further West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Not just local bro. I have friends on the East coast of Florida saying its a mad rush to get supplies because of the hype. I calmed them down but geesh. FYI he Euro takes the (center) over His. and over Cuba then emerges. I am still Meh until we see exactly how it looks in the GOM, not like its flying along either. Oh, I know.....but this is a NE thread, hence that was my focus. You are right, though.....all of the TV guys just spoon-feed the public TPC data.....which I suppose is the safe route because it minimizes personal responsibilty. They probably want to reserve that for the local forecast, and leave the tropics to the speacialists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 12z EURO has landfall on the LA/TX border a week from now. LOL. Pretty adamant about the western track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 12z EURO has landfall on the LA/TX border a week from now. LOL. Pretty adamant about the western track. Me, ftw! (although I have n o reasoning I thought Texas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Its probably right...I was just telling Scooter via text central-western GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 The Tropical Prediction Center has issued a Dry Paint Watch for all of Americanwx. A Dry Paint Watch is issued when the possibilty exists for the entire site to realize that the tropical cyclone that they thought they were watching is actually drying paint within 36-48 hours. If Issac's transition to drying paint becomes imminent, then a Dry Paint Warning may be issued. Drying Paint is accompanied by frequent gusts of rage, with sustained bouts of restlessness, and a severe surge of inane posts, accompanied by hallucinations. Stay tuned to the Tropical Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service for updates on this static situation. Ray, you are full of awesomeness Glad you are posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Its probably right...I was just telling Scooter via text central-western GOM. It's been out there for days. Sure it's come E some but it's still hundreds of miles W of the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 It's been out there for days. Sure it's come E some but it's still hundreds of miles W of the other guidance. Good call....you were all over the GOM scenario at a very advanced lead. I was on the goal post train Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Haiti is likely to be the early story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Good call....you were all over the GOM scenario at a very advanced lead. I was on the goal post train Fail. Thanks. I put out my honest thoughts on this and to see it come close is nice. As of yesterday, I thought the FL panhandle would be closer to reality but now I am not so sure. Euro is still a mess as far as I am concerned. Huge continuity problems with the OP runs of it from 00z to 12z today to the tune of a couple hundred miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Thanks. I put out my honest thoughts on this and to see it come close is nice. As of yesterday, I thought the FL panhandle would be closer to reality but now I am not so sure. Euro is still a mess as far as I am concerned. Huge continuity problems with the OP runs of it from 00z to 12z today to the tune of a couple hundred miles. I hadn't really looked at anything. Essentialy went off climo. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Heads up Troy and Lizbeth, choot em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I hadn't really looked at anything. Essentialy went off climo. lol I think there has to be an element of climo when you look at these systems. Not many have made the trek from CV into the gulf. I basically went off what the models were showing as far as the developing ridging to the N of this system. I never really felt it had a chance to come up the coast. FL maybe. This has been my first system that I've really tracked like this. Part of it is wanting to broaden my knowledge and the other is being a mod, I have to step into the fire that is the tropical threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I think there has to be an element of climo when you look at these systems. Not many have made the trek from CV into the gulf. I basically went off what the models were showing as far as the developing ridging to the N of this system. I never really felt it had a chance to come up the coast. FL maybe. This has been my first system that I've really tracked like this. Part of it is wanting to broaden my knowledge and the other is being a mod, I have to step into the fire that is the tropical threads. for systems forming just to east or SE of PR there is only a 5% chance that they come near us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Lots of weenie posts in here, mostly from Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I don't recall this much hubbub over a unorganized tropical system that is going to have a tough time strengthening over a rugged landmass, Its a bad track if folks are looking for a catastrophic storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Lots of weenie posts in here, mostly from Bob. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 for systems forming just to east or SE of PR there is only a 5% chance that they come near us. So you're sayin there's a chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 So you're sayin there's a chance... not this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I don't recall this much hubbub over a unorganized tropical system that is going to have a tough time strengthening over a rugged landmass, Its a bad track if folks are looking for a catastrophic storm It will get its act together in the GOM though, the hubbub should really wind up then. CBSCNNABCFOXNBC.hype.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 12 Z Euro Ens centered on Norleans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 It will get its act together in the GOM though, the hubbub should really wind up then. CBSCNNABCFOXNBC.hype.com The further west in the gulf the more warm water it will have to feed off of the higher probability of stronger development as long as the upper air environment is favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 The further west in the gulf the more warm water it will have to feed off of the higher probability of stronger development as long as the upper air environment is favorable Looks very favorable, enjoy the 6 buck a gallon gas for the sled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Fishing buddies report 72 isotherm is 30 feet deep off the coast. Some might belittle the impact but this is torch in the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Fishing buddies report 72 isotherm is 30 feet deep off the coast. Some might belittle the impact but this is torch in the ocean. 1938 meet 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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