ORH_wxman Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Latest VDM shows some weakening, pressure up to 1004 mb, max winds 35 kts: 000 URNT12 KNHC 221819 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092012 A. 22/18:02:20Z B. 16 deg 06 min N 060 deg 24 min W C. 850 mb 1479 m D. 35 kt E. 314 deg 71 nm F. 068 deg 35 kt G. 314 deg 74 nm H. 1004 mb I. 18 C / 1525 m J. 21 C / 1525 m K. 17 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 1345 / 08 O. 0.02 / 5 nm P. AF307 0309A ISAAC OB 02 MAX FL WIND 35 KT NW QUAD 17:39:00Z MAX FL TEMP 21 C 314 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR ; Not surprising as it looks like garbage on satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 As many were thinking.. Euro came north and east. Has a monster cane heading north in the gulf twds the panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 I'm not sure what you guys are getting at. There is one thread on the main board that we are trying to keep scientific and high level. You've never read Orwell, it's okay - and rather OT, but really not too far off. ;P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Not surprising as it looks like garbage on satellite. yeah this thing sure is struggling... hard to visually identify a center, and last recon confirms this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 It isn't supposed to crank up until tomorrow morning if you've been following Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 It isn't supposed to crank up until tomorrow morning if you've been following It actually might not become all that impressive until it reaches the gulf, if it all. Should still become a hurricane, but a cat 1/2 in the Caribbean isn't very notable. Also a lot of guidance is looking pretty slow. That would increase the chance of any troughing passing north of this without much effect and diminishing chances we get remnant rains. But that type of speculation is still very far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Yup If this is a threat, its to the Caribbean and Gulf. Looks as though the NAO is trending towards neutral in the upcoming days. Flow is looking more zonal across the conus. The Alt ridge also looks to build W, preventing any curve to the N until at least Hispaniola. Still like my thoughts from yesterday on a Caribbean threat right now. System is still not well organized. Looks like there are a couple competing pieces of convection that may inhibiting much strengthening. Still on course with my call. System just became a TD as well so development has been slow as expected. I think this system flirts with Hispaniola/Cuba before curving to the N and impacting the gulf coast somewhere. Will need to monitor the Atl ridging to see when it breaks down. There certainly is a lot of information being thrown out there in that thread. It's tough to decipher a lot of it. Personally I am just monitoring the evolution of the models one way or another and what I've see is a general westerly trend in the GFS towards the Euro. I do thing the OP Euro is too far S & W with it's solution. I believe the Ensm mean is a bit further N & W. There may be some stronger southerly solutions that are skewing it a bit overall. If I had to choose a final landfall right now in the US, I'd go in the vicinity of Apalachee Bay, FL. It may clip the Keys as well. As many were thinking.. Euro came north and east. Has a monster cane heading north in the gulf twds the panhandle Thanks for the kudos Kev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 It actually might not become all that impressive until it reaches the gulf, if it all. Should still become a hurricane, but a cat 1/2 in the Caribbean isn't very notable. Also a lot of guidance is looking pretty slow. That would increase the chance of any troughing passing north of this without much effect and diminishing chances we get remnant rains. But that type of speculation is still very far out. As a lot of the mets have been speculating TD 10 is likely the cane that is going to run the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 It actually might not become all that impressive until it reaches the gulf, if it all. Should still become a hurricane, but a cat 1/2 in the Caribbean isn't very notable. Also a lot of guidance is looking pretty slow. That would increase the chance of any troughing passing north of this without much effect and diminishing chances we get remnant rains. But that type of speculation is still very far out. Yeah that seems to be what models are showing. Once it gets past Cuba the environment both from a fuel and atmospheric standpoint seem to be conducive for strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 As many were thinking.. Euro came north and east. Has a monster cane heading north in the gulf twds the panhandle yeap, that is what I've been saying, I assume there is sampling going on out there that would give a better data on the strength of the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 yeap, that is what I've been saying, I assume there is sampling going on out there that would give a better data on the strength of the ridge. Not until tomorrow night's 0z run, unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Kirk is making a run at Day 9 east of the Bahamas. 2:50pm - 22 Aug 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 As a lot of the mets have been speculating TD 10 is likely the cane that is going to run the coast I have not even look at that one yet.. I would think it has a greater chance to recurve and go fish.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I'm not sure what you guys are getting at. There is one thread on the main board that we are trying to keep scientific and high level. There is another thread on the main board and all the tropical threads in the subfora for chit chat and less serious discussion. Contrary to what you might think, we don't have it out for anybody, but there is a definite different standard in the main tropical thread than other threads - just as there are different customs in the Mid-Atlantic compared to New England. I was commenting on there are other alternatives when i said i agree, Believe me, I don't stray far from the New England forum or troll other regions or make comments on weather related things that i am going to try to blow smoke on, This probably belongs in the OT section but that is an area i would never post in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 As a lot of the mets have been speculating TD 10 is likely the cane that is going to run the coast recurve out to sea Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Agreed nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Agreed I guess you can't always have extreme weather? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 hello Katrina redux... 12Z Euro 180hr winds (at Aug 30 0Z), pressure at this time looks ~ 972 mb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 hello Katrina redux... 12Z Euro 180hr winds (at Aug 30 0Z), pressure at this time looks ~ 972 mb: $5 a gallon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 hello Katrina redux... 12Z Euro 180hr winds (at Aug 30 0Z), pressure at this time looks ~ 972 mb: That is one very ugly scenario. Not only the obvious which is loss of life and property, but I will make sure I have a full tank that week because oil/gas prices will hit the stratosphere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 $5 a gallon? Ha try 7-8 but for POS system it has a lot to get through before that and 180 hours, meh, they are having trouble T+24 with this. Lot o speculation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 $5 a gallon? The energy people just want you to be more comfortable when it goes over $4 a gallon, Notice how nobody complains about paying $3.50 anymore when everyone bitched if it was over $2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Katrina was a 920mb beast at landfall. There is no comparison except rough location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 $5 a gallon? prices are close to $4 now-I'd say $6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Katrina was a 920mb beast at landfall. There is no comparison except rough location. 930mb Cat 3 actually Surge was the bigger issue with Katrina because it was so big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 It's gonna be a Florida hit anyway..so why are we talking about NO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 uh... center relocation underway? looks like a jump southeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 It's gonna be a Florida hit anyway..so why are we talking about NO? I'm humping the Euro on this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Phil/Will You have any thoughts on track/intensity? Totally a crap shoot, although I slightly leaning towards a gulf coast impact (FL most likely) over a E FL landfall. Still plenty of time for shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I'm still holding out hope for Texas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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