NE Tropical Thread

[Baroclinic Zone]

Vacation to Naples,FL in jeopardy? was planning on being there labor day weekend.

Depending upon ultimate track, it's possible there may be some damage in that area, Obviously storm will be long gone by than.

[CapturedNature]

FWIW, I posted this link last year and folks seem to like it so if anyone is tracking Isaac up here, I created a page with a map and links to the different radar sites in the Caribbean to make it easy to find different sites:

http://www.stormmoni....com/radar.html

HTH - I didn't want to post it over on the main thread for fear of being labeled at OT.

[Baroclinic Zone]

FWIW, I posted this link last year and folks seem to like it so if anyone is tracking Isaac up here, I created a page with a map and links to the different radar sites in the Caribbean to make it easy to find different sites:

http://www.stormmoni....com/radar.html

HTH - I didn't want to post it over on the main thread for fear of being labeled at OT.

Actually that is a good link. Sacrus in the past has created a thread devoted to storm monitoring with radar links/sites.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Well one thing is for sure..they've accomplished their mission of driving most of the hobbyists away from posting in the tropical threads. Notice there's only like 10 or so people who even post in those threads anymore. For some reason the tropical threads are untouchable, but the winter storm threads anything goes.. I have a feeling it has something to do with the relationship the board has with the folks from NHC, and there's probably been private discussions about those guys won't read/post here if there's folks posting that aren't tropical officienados.

My guess is they probably just want to avoid a poopstorm of bad posts. Makes the thread so much better when it isn't littered with pointless stuff...also makes it easier to find info

[ORH_wxman]

My guess is they probably just want to avoid a poopstorm of bad posts. Makes the thread so much better when it isn't littered with pointless stuff...also makes it easier to find info

Yeah its nice to jump in and find some solid info quick without too much clutter. I don't have a problem with keeping it strictly moderated as long as there is another thread or threads for people to post in more casually....which there is.

What I would be against is moderating like storm2k where nobody can post anything in any thread. That's exactly against what made eastern/american desirable to begin with.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Phil/Will

You have any thoughts on track/intensity?

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah its nice to jump in and find some solid info quick without too much clutter. I don't have a problem with keeping it strictly moderated as long as there is another thread or threads for people to post in more casually....which there is.

What I would be against is moderating like storm2k where nobody can post anything in any thread. That's exactly against what made eastern/american desirable to begin with.

It's not far from that now in the tropical threads. Even in the banter thread, folks get called out scolded all the time. It's almost nauseating

[Tropopause_Fold]

Phil/Will

You have any thoughts on track/intensity?

I've hardly looked...it wouldn't be much more than a guess right now. Unless it's a monster or an east coast threat I don't take too much interest until it's closer to the U.S. mainland.

[radarman]

FWIW, I posted this link last year and folks seem to like it...

Bookmarked!

Well one thing is for sure..they've accomplished their mission of driving most of the hobbyists away from posting in the tropical threads. Notice there's only like 10 or so people who even post in those threads anymore. For some reason the tropical threads are untouchable, but the winter storm threads anything goes.. I have a feeling it has something to do with the relationship the board has with the folks from NHC, and there's probably been private discussions about those guys won't read/post here if there's folks posting that aren't tropical officienados.

With the exception of good stuff from Don and Wes the main board pretty much is the tropical diaspora. And like other subforums I won't post there without some definite connection or reason for doing so, even then cautiously. I actually appreciate the fact that I can ask honest questions here and get answers from informed NE crew without the 'cachet' to post on the main board, or from the tropical guys who are more at ease with newbies smart enough to not clutter up their thread.

It's all about the timing of these things. Did you notice yesterday, when the convection disappeared and it weakened, it went NW for a few hours, then went back WSW after convection blew up last night? That's what my post was referring to. The other two posts are talking about the strength Fri-Sat-Sun.

Ok fair enough. As a general (dumb) question, are stronger, vertically stacked storms relatively more affected or less affected by U/L winds (compared to mid/low levels winds)?

Here are the H2 and H7 analyses from 12z yesterday, around the time you mention above. I would guess that the H2 winds would be more favorable to push something south, but because of the differences on the various quadrants of the circulation it's a bit hard to say which are most influential to storm motion... (winds are out of the NE in the SE quadrant, but out of the S in the NW quadrant)

And had the storm strengthened a little more yesterday, even if it pushed further south for a bit, wouldn't that have supported a sharper recurve in the longer run and a track on the eastern side of the envelope?

[ORH_wxman]

Phil/Will

You have any thoughts on track/intensity?

My guess is as good as yours right now...I haven't looked for places like Florida or the gulf coast. For us, I've noticed there will be a trough coming into play around D6-7, but its impossible tell right now whether the storm will be far enough north (or the trough deep enough) to get picked up by it and give us some good rains or if it will leave the remants behind to rot somewhere in the southeast or south-central U.S.

[Cold Miser]

It's not far from that now in the tropical threads. Even in the banter thread, folks get called out scolded all the time. It's almost nauseating

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/36196-get-rid-of-the-regional-tropical-threads/

[am19psu]

Ok fair enough. As a general (dumb) question, are stronger, vertically stacked storms relatively more affected or less affected by U/L winds (compared to mid/low levels winds)?

Here are the H2 and H7 analyses from 12z yesterday, around the time you mention above. I would guess that the H2 winds would be more favorable to push something south, but because of the differences on the various quadrants of the circulation it's a bit hard to say which are most influential to storm motion... (winds are out of the NE in the SE quadrant, but out of the S in the NW quadrant)

And had the storm strengthened a little more yesterday, even if it pushed further south for a bit, wouldn't that have supported a sharper recurve in the longer run and a track on the eastern side of the envelope?

Yes to both questions. Stronger storms are affected by the mean winds of the entire troposphere (think of the BAMD model), while weaker storms are only affected by the mean winds of the lower levels (think BAMM or BAMS).

Re: the stronger storm scenario and recurvature, I wouldn't have gone much farther than maybe halfway between the GFS and CMC, since those were the two stronger models yesterday. The CMC was even reasonable, I suppose, though I personally wouldn't put as much weight on it as the GFS if I thought it would be stronger earlier.

[Bostonseminole]

Yeah its nice to jump in and find some solid info quick without too much clutter. I don't have a problem with keeping it strictly moderated as long as there is another thread or threads for people to post in more casually....which there is.

What I would be against is moderating like storm2k where nobody can post anything in any thread. That's exactly against what made eastern/american desirable to begin with.

This!

[Tropopause_Fold]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/36196-get-rid-of-the-regional-tropical-threads/

Some of the smartest people and best forecasters I know I've met on this board (eastern). But threads like that just reinforce how weird this place is and how many people actually spend time caring about something so stupid and trivial.

[powderfreak]

My guess is they probably just want to avoid a poopstorm of bad posts. Makes the thread so much better when it isn't littered with pointless stuff...also makes it easier to find info

Agreed....It's much easier to read the important stuff rather than having every weenie hobbyist offering up their specific idea on what's happening. There are only so many opinions and guesses you can have in a thread and I'd rather leave that thread for the real hardcore 'cane folks...the rest of us can throw wild a** guesses out in threads like this one.

[CapturedNature]

Agreed....It's much easier to read the important stuff rather than having every weenie hobbyist offering up their specific idea on what's happening. There are only so many opinions and guesses you can have in a thread and I'd rather leave that thread for the real hardcore 'cane folks...the rest of us can throw wild a** guesses out in threads like this one.

I agree with that if it included Mets too to a degree. It's almost like you need three threads - one for banter (light hearted stuff where people can openly post without fear), one for questions & predictions (only with Tropical Mets, allows weenie hobbyist or even Mets without a tropical background to learn & offer forecasts) and finally just one for observations or notes. Right now there seems to be a core group of posters offering their opinions on every aspect of the storm and sometimes you can't make heads or tails on what is going on because of it. It also creates an intimidating environment where people are affraid to post or ask questions. Just my 2¢.

[wxsniss]

Re: whether or not we intensify to Hurricane today (some called for that possibility by this morning):

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MONITORING ISAAC

DURING THE NIGHT REPORTED THAT THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD BECAME

DISORGANIZED AFTER 0600 UTC. A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES

SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER BECAME ELONGATED DURING THIS

TIME....AND THE CENTER IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN FRENCH RADAR DATA

FROM MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT

40 KT BASED ON AIRCRAFT-REPORTED WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER.

WHILE THE CENTRAL CORE IS DISORGANIZED...THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE

STORM IS IMPROVING...AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE OUTER BAND

FORMING AROUND THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE FEATURE.

[MJHUB]

I would think you would be ok. NHC 5 day has it sitting in the Keys this Monday 2AM

Trip insurance? (good idea for Florida in September)

Going to Parents house just don't want to have to do work on vacation haha.

[wxsniss]

Re: the main tropical thread...

I agree with the principle of having a thread dedicated to Pros / people who know what they're talking about, and free of weenie posts.

This is a high interest event with the attention of a large geographic area, and without some high threshold for posting, there definitely would be a "poopstorm" of weenie predictions and mby questions that would bury the expertise.

We can argue how high that threshold should be (or whether it is inconsistent, Tip).

I for one think they've struck a reasonably good balance, and plenty of Banter and Regional subforum threads for others to post in.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Re: the main tropical thread...

I agree with the principle of having a thread dedicated to Pros / people who know what they're talking about, and free of weenie posts.

This is a high interest event with the attention of a large geographic area, and without some high threshold for posting, there definitely would be a "poopstorm" of weenie predictions and mby questions that would bury the expertise.

We can argue how high that threshold should be (or whether it is inconsistent, Tip).

I for one think they've struck a reasonably good balance, and plenty of Banter and Regional subforum threads for others to post in.

Keep in mind this is the 1st go around this season so it's a learning curve for everyone. I have not seen any major issues with any thread thus far. Some people crying foul at times but that will subside as people figure out what will be tolerated or not tolerated.

[free_man]

I really hope Shreddarola shreds this thing.

Yeah, we're all hoping for that. Hopefully the 50" of rain results in landslides that swallow up the mountains, too.

[amarshall]

I agree with that if it included Mets too to a degree. It's almost like you need three threads - one for banter (light hearted stuff where people can openly post without fear), one for questions & predictions (only with Tropical Mets, allows weenie hobbyist or even Mets without a tropical background to learn & offer forecasts) and finally just one for observations or notes. Right now there seems to be a core group of posters offering their opinions on every aspect of the storm and sometimes you can't make heads or tails on what is going on because of it. It also creates an intimidating environment where people are affraid to post or ask questions. Just my 2¢.

There are a lot of people myself included that are complete noobs and every day you click on a link it's a learning experience. I've learned more about weather from reading between the lines and asking questions on this board.

If you make this a hostile environment you might as well make it invitation only. Some of the "general public" blogs I read are so full of misinformation.

I agree with having a serious met only thread where it's heavily moderated and a banter thread where people aren't afraid to ask noob questions.

[free_man]

So much for free exchange of information on a message board,

this place is going "OrwellianWx". sad, but at least there's alternatives.

[dryslot]

And we have TD10 as most expected, That one looks like it has possibility's of hitting the east coast with its projected track unless it recurves.

[dryslot]

So much for free exchange of information on a message board,

this place is going "OrwellianWx". sad, but at least there's alternatives.

I agree..

[am19psu]

I agree..

So much for free exchange of information on a message board,

this place is going "OrwellianWx". sad, but at least there's alternatives.

I'm not sure what you guys are getting at. There is one thread on the main board that we are trying to keep scientific and high level. There is another thread on the main board and all the tropical threads in the subfora for chit chat and less serious discussion. Contrary to what you might think, we don't have it out for anybody, but there is a definite different standard in the main tropical thread than other threads - just as there are different customs in the Mid-Atlantic compared to New England.

[Bostonseminole]

I'm not sure what you guys are getting at. There is one thread on the main board that we are trying to keep scientific and high level. There is another thread on the main board and all the tropical threads in the subfora for chit chat and less serious discussion. Contrary to what you might think, we don't have it out for anybody, but there is a definite different standard in the main tropical thread than other threads - just as there are different customs in the Mid-Atlantic compared to New England.

I'm happy with how is working out so far, I think is best of both worlds in my opinion, I have multiple places to post my weenies thoughts and we also have a main thread that I can just read and learn.

I do think the NAM discussion is getting old, who cares if its posted, if they guy does not get it, move on.

[wxsniss]

Keep in mind this is the 1st go around this season so it's a learning curve for everyone. I have not seen any major issues with any thread thus far. Some people crying foul at times but that will subside as people figure out what will be tolerated or not tolerated.

The mods are doing a decent job imho. I know it annoys some, and as I said above, the "threshold" can be fine-tuned.

But I'd rather refrain from posting in a main thread that reads like a scientific journal than join in a main thread that reads like an inflight magazine.

And as has been said repeatedly, there are plenty of threads to post less-expert questions, and these do get answered.

[powderfreak]

But I'd rather refrain from posting in a main thread that reads like a scientific journal than join in a main thread that reads like an inflight magazine.

excellent way of looking at it and I agree. I'm not sure why but there are always members who just don't realize that maybe they shouldn't post in some threads, and then flip out when a moderator makes that decision for them haha.

[wxsniss]

Latest VDM shows some weakening, pressure up to 1004 mb, max winds 35 kts:

000

URNT12 KNHC 221819

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092012

A. 22/18:02:20Z

B. 16 deg 06 min N

060 deg 24 min W

C. 850 mb 1479 m

D. 35 kt

E. 314 deg 71 nm

F. 068 deg 35 kt

G. 314 deg 74 nm

H. 1004 mb

I. 18 C / 1525 m

J. 21 C / 1525 m

K. 17 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1345 / 08

O. 0.02 / 5 nm

P. AF307 0309A ISAAC OB 02

MAX FL WIND 35 KT NW QUAD 17:39:00Z

MAX FL TEMP 21 C 314 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR

;