wxsniss Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 this thing is really getting its act together... look at the convection firing up on the north side: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I really hope Shreddarola shreds this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 this thing is really getting its act together... look at the convection firing up on the north side: Actually, the convection is situated on the south side. If you can get a loop of that you may see it better - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 here, time sensitive though: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/vis-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I really hope Shreddarola shreds this thing. DD (me to) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 here, time sensitive though: http://www.ssd.noaa....is-animated.gif yeah that's a good animation, does look like it's south of the center... that animation also captures decoupling of the center from main convection to the south today but looks like it's starting to wrapping around more nicely in last IR views: (also re: Fujiwhara effect, I'm very roughly estimating that's at least 1500 nmile distance in the image above) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 yeah that's a good animation, does look like it's south of the center... that animation also captures decoupling of the center from main convection to the south today but looks like it's starting to wrapping around more nicely in last IR views: (also re: Fujiwhara effect, I'm very roughly estimating that's at least 1500 nmile distance in the image above) You can figure it out precisely - it's 60 naut mi between longitude parallels. You can use Pythagorean Theorem. It's kind of moot though because FW is involved with well developed TCs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 DD (me to) Yea I am all set with 7 dollar a gallon gas and tropical elitists getting their rocks off on destruction. Love the Meterology in a recurve myself, Cat fives off of Florida heading NE are beautiful, great surf, great symmetry, awesome physics. Shred this bast ard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 You can figure it out precisely - it's 60 naut mi between longitude parallels. You can use Pythagorean Theorem. It's kind of moot though because FW is involved with well developed TCs At the equator only... obviously less than 60 naut miles between longitude parallels at 15˚N where Isaac is. Meanwhile, looking better and better... convection has wrapped to the north: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 18z nogaps kevins dream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 At the equator only... obviously less than 60 naut miles between longitude parallels at 15˚N where Isaac is. Meanwhile, looking better and better... convection has wrapped to the north: Right, one can factor that in using one of the trig identities... The latitude is 60 regardless though - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Isaac set to create some political havoc maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 And for a fun read: It's amazing to see how many red-tagger calls there were for a Gulf of Mexico track for Irene under 240hrs. TCs have to be among the toughest beasts in the business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Looks like nocturnal maximum underway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Man how can the Euro be so wrong with Isaac. Awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Take a look at the 06z GFS Kev. Took a noticeable jog SW towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Not close to Euro at all Yeah... The only MAJOR difference I see is the 6Z is a bit slower and taking it through the Florida Straits (after making a nice jog west over northern Cuba) instead of up the spine of the state or Everglades to get to the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I am feeling a teeny bit better about my Texas thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Not close to Euro at all Did I say it was? Reading comprehension ftl. Operative word. TOWARDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Models did not clear much up. Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Let's just pray the GGEM has a clue..Seems like all met concensus is Euro is too far west It may be a bit too far W, but personally I think it has the right idea with the upper level flow over the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Man how can the Euro be so wrong with Isaac. Awful Spiking the ball early? Many times the models will compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 a) if it cranks up, it's actually going to go farther south because the upper level ridge is oriented differently than the low/mid-level ridge. The Euro is so far away from all other models I have a hard time believing it, not impossible but for now I am in NHC's camp. the key is the strength. if it can stay a weak TS for the next 3 days, the Euro has a shot. Otherwise, hello Hispaniola and Cuba, then a strong TS or cat 1 hurricane hitting somewhere in FL. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLVING SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE LEFTMOST OF THE MODELS...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF BEING THE RIGHTMOST OF THE MODELS. GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS...MORE WEIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON THOSE SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY HAVE A STRONGER AND VERTICALLY DEEPER CYCLONE DEPICTED IN THE MODELS. I know little to nothing about cyclones, and stuff like this doesn't help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I know little to nothing about cyclones, and stuff like this doesn't help. Good one, yea not much great info when it comes to Trop storms, pretty much lots of guessing until its obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I know little to nothing about cyclones, and stuff like this doesn't help. There certainly is a lot of information being thrown out there in that thread. It's tough to decipher a lot of it. Personally I am just monitoring the evolution of the models one way or another and what I've see is a general westerly trend in the GFS towards the Euro. I do thing the OP Euro is too far S & W with it's solution. I believe the Ensm mean is a bit further N & W. There may be some stronger southerly solutions that are skewing it a bit overall. If I had to choose a final landfall right now in the US, I'd go in the vicinity of Apalachee Bay, FL. It may clip the Keys as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I know little to nothing about cyclones, and stuff like this doesn't help. It's all about the timing of these things. Did you notice yesterday, when the convection disappeared and it weakened, it went NW for a few hours, then went back WSW after convection blew up last night? That's what my post was referring to. The other two posts are talking about the strength Fri-Sat-Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 There certainly is a lot of information being thrown out there in that thread. It's tough to decipher a lot of it. Personally I am just monitoring the evolution of the models one way or another and what I've see is a general westerly trend in the GFS towards the Euro. I do thing the OP Euro is too far S & W with it's solution. I believe the Ensm mean is a bit further N & W. There may be some stronger southerly solutions that are skewing it a bit overall. If I had to choose a final landfall right now in the US, I'd go in the vicinity of Apalachee Bay, FL. It may clip the Keys as well. It seems like everyone in the thread is trying to get the jump on everyone else by being the first to mention something or predict things one way or another. Not being a big tropical guy, I can't offer much but it does look like the ensembles (or model consensus) are leaning the way you're thinking. For no other reason than my gut says so, I'm leaning toward a so. peninsula hit and a recurve through the mid-atlantic. In looking at the WV it does appear that the trough in the midwest is going to be playing the major steering role by the time it gets there. It'll be a matter of timing though...what gets where when. One thing I've seen mentioned a couple of times is this might be a drought buster for the SE. That will be good for them, that's for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I know little to nothing about cyclones, and stuff like this doesn't help. Well one thing is for sure..they've accomplished their mission of driving most of the hobbyists away from posting in the tropical threads. Notice there's only like 10 or so people who even post in those threads anymore. For some reason the tropical threads are untouchable, but the winter storm threads anything goes.. I have a feeling it has something to do with the relationship the board has with the folks from NHC, and there's probably been private discussions about those guys won't read/post here if there's folks posting that aren't tropical officienados. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Vacation to Naples,FL in jeopardy? was planning on being there labor day weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Vacation to Naples,FL in jeopardy? was planning on being there labor day weekend. I would think you would be ok. NHC 5 day has it sitting in the Keys this Monday 2AM Trip insurance? (good idea for Florida in September) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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