OSUmetstud Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 There might actually end up being too much northeast/midwest ridging for a northeast/mid-atlantic flood impact. Could end up stalling down in the SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 So...widespread 8-14" for SNE? Lollies to 24? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I don't think the anomalies are favorable for a SNE/Mid-Atlantic real TC hit at all. I could see remnant flooding after a Florida/North Gulf impact. There might actually end up being too much northeast/midwest ridging for a northeast/mid-atlantic flood impact. Could end up stalling down in the SE? Yeah, strongly agree with these thoughts. There are a few limiting factors for any New England impact. IMO, landfall in the southeast, with a flood threat from the SE extending into the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 wow.. on the EURO.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 CMC would be a lucky KFS coup... 12Z Euro keeps this thing way further southwest into the GOM... Agree with unlikely effects on SNE. Farthest east track looks like a Fay-like track (but 12Z Euro says even this is too far northeast): Potentially disrupt the GOP convention. Would bring an overnight fix for this in AL / GA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Euro entirely bypasses south of Cuba... then do we see Camille? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Maybe a little Miller B re-developer on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Maybe a little Miller B re-developer on the Euro? How about that blitz at the end of the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Maybe a little Miller B re-developer on the Euro? dgex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 How about that blitz at the end of the GFS? That would probably be like highs in the 40s with 50 mph winds, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I don't believe the Euro cluster even knows the TD is there. ...if I may state the obvious.. The system is shallow and having difficulty maintaining a substantive presence in the deep layer. The convection has moved off the center yet again during the day, and appears the system has some subtle NE shear impacting. The low level circulation axis as observed in hi res vis loop is partially exposed and appears to have more polarward bias than a true 270 degree motion, over the last 3 to 4 hours. I believe, however, there is a 6 hourly persistence required there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 lol... i love that we're talking about a 192hr-Euro miller B and a 384hr-GFS miller A in a NE Tropical thread... was never easy for tropical enthusiasts in New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 lol... i love that we're talking about a 192hr-Euro miller B and a 384hr-GFS miller A in a NE Tropical thread... was never easy for tropical enthusiasts in New England Its easier to get a snow event in October here than for us to get nailed by a tropical system. Our only real shot at anything from this is some flooding rains if the remnants can climb toward us, but we wouldn't know those chances for another several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Isaac gets named at 5pm....? http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT12/KNHC/ D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 21, 2012 Author Share Posted August 21, 2012 Its easier to get a snow event in October here than for us to get nailed by a tropical system. Our only real shot at anything from this is some flooding rains if the remnants can climb toward us, but we wouldn't know those chances for another several days. What if it never fully develops (at least not a hurricane), and the system behind it can become the "main"system? Is that out of the question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I don't believe the Euro cluster even knows the TD is there. ...if I may state the obvious.. The system is shallow and having difficulty maintaining a substantive presence in the deep layer. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 You're partially correct here. A cat 1 hurricane, take Gloria for instance, produces cat 1 winds in a very small area on the beaches. However, the impacts inland are much greater than a very strong nor'easter. In the last 40 years we've had many strong nor'easters that have produced minimal inland impact in terms of wind.... Gloria and Irene, however, produced widespread wind damage to trees and powerlines inland. Much worse than a noreaster. This is true. There's a kind of growing thump about comparing Cat 1's at this latitude with Nor'easters, but it's not sound. Meteorologically that makes no sense. In a Nor'easter, boundary layer inhibition prevents the vast majority of wind momentum from getting to the surface. In strong Nor'easters, with 50+mph winds fire hosing Logan, the wind may be NNE at ORH west of the inevitable coastal boundary that demarcates the interface between the better mixed air and the inland damming. At considerably less velocity at that. In tropical systems, everyone is well mixed, period. Frictional effects do dwindle the wind, and there is some Ekman boundary layer/compression effecting air flow, but you can mix tremendous gust down right to your roof-tops and driveways given any convective activity at all. The two are not the same. Nor'easter is a cardio infarction Trop Cyclone is a accute tachycardia both will kill but a different way - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 No. Well, it was just a thought The thing is, the initialization of the Euro looks rather flat out there, where the the more polarward solutions out in time appear to have more discerned structure at 12z. Interesting. Anyway, it not that uncommon for shallow system to maintain trade trajectories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 ^^ Northeasters usually hit after the trees have started losing leaves, and the wind direction is probably different. And the amount of rain, of course, which increases the chance of trees uprooting. I don't think even the warmer Nor'easters drop an inch or more of rain per hour for several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 What if it never fully develops (at least not a hurricane), and the system behind it can become the "main"system? Is that out of the question? i thought about that. that second one probably has the "better" shot at being interesting for the eastern seaboard...though it will probably have quite an uphill battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 winter can't get here fast enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 winter can't get here fast enough Amen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 i thought about that. that second one probably has the "better" shot at being interesting for the eastern seaboard...though it will probably have quite an uphill battle. Yeah it's on everyone's mind - agreed. One thing I am noticing there is that it appears to have a some what larger initial circulation envelope - usually that means longer spin up times, but not always if surrounding environment is hostile or not. right. It'll be interesting to watch that - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Talking tropics here is like people in the SE talking KUs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Talking tropics here is like people in the SE talking KUs. Cue Ed Lizard posting the storm that gave Victoria, TX 13" of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Eh, it'll probably run right down the spine of the archipelago keeping it weak, such that it can't penetrate inland enough to solve some of the drought crisis - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Amen. give me 984mb SE of ACK and a big 1036 HP N of maine please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Tip regarding your earlier post, I think the MSLP depiction on the euro near Jamaica may be the result of land interference, but it basically begins to intensify over high octane fuel once it gets west. I think if the GFS had a similar depiction..it probably would go to town in that area also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 winter can't get here fast enough I said that earlier. Same old same old every year. Loved the OKX sounding last night with the 145 knot jet at 40 K, it's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 ^^ Northeasters usually hit after the trees have started losing leaves, and the wind direction is probably different. And the amount of rain, of course, which increases the chance of trees uprooting. I don't think even the warmer Nor'easters drop an inch or more of rain per hour for several hours. Yes...this is a big point forgotten on many (and shouldn't be). Its not uncommon to get 50-60mph winds in winter on CAA events, but theres no leaves on the trees and usually the upper part of the soil is frozen (or getting there) which further inhibits the chances of uprooted trees...in tropical systems, we have foliage on the trees for the most part and the ground is warmer and often soft/saturated. Coming from the opposite direction as most winter events is also a little extra boost. Thus, a 45mph wind from the south in a tropical system is going to be a lot more damaging than a 60mph wind from the northwest in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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