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Mid-Atlantic tropical thread


Ian

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GFS has another hurricane doing something in the long range. Who knows. Wait, have we even had a hurricane so far?

We know every random tropical storm that can occur with the current technology, So of course there are going to be more stupid Tropical System that do nothing than before.

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It is looking more likely we get something tho there are decent discrepancies between the gfs and euro. The storm ends up going so far west it rounds the new ridge and it doesn't matter about the cold front that just went through anymore--which looked like the initial concern. I'm not sold it'll be super after being over land so long but there are still a lot of unknowns.

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It is looking more likely we get something tho there are decent discrepancies between the gfs and euro. The storm ends up going so far west it rounds the new ridge and it doesn't matter about the cold front that just went through anymore--which looked like the initial concern. I'm not sold it'll be super after being over land so long but there are still a lot of unknowns.

Besides timing differences it is just hard to see how this could give us much along the severe lines. By the time it finishes its trek up the Mississippi and turns toward us it almost looks clipperish.

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I'm not disagreeing with you but deteriorated tropical systems can be surprising.

I always enjoy a remnant TS at least from the beneficial rain aspect. There might be something I'm missing when looking at the models to make it more impressive if and when it gets here.

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Just looking at some of the forecast soundings from the GFS for Tuesday, it looks like shear will be pretty weak, but there is notable low-level rotation and a decent amount of instability. Would like to see the vort max hold together a bit better, but that's asking a lot of tropical remnants that long after landfall.

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