Ian Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Fringed. Irene redux Where is Leesburg04? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Let the suicides commence. Seriously though, I'd really like to see some good remnants make it up this way. The rain would be nice and it would actually give me some halfway exciting weather. Last time I remember getting something notable in this part of the state was in 04 or 05. Ended up with quite a bit of flooding and a handful of weak tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2012 Author Share Posted August 23, 2012 Let the suicides commence. Seriously though, I'd really like to see some good remnants make it up this way. The rain would be nice and it would actually give me some halfway exciting weather. Last time I remember getting something notable in this part of the state was in 04 or 05. Ended up with quite a bit of flooding and a handful of weak tornadoes. I guess in your area it's a bit less frequent as you probably don't tend to get EC impacts as much as 95 and east. You must have gotten something from Lee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I guess in your area it's a bit less frequent as you probably don't tend to get EC impacts as much as 95 and east. You must have gotten something from Lee? I believe it was either Jeanne or Ivan because I remember school had just started for the year (September 04) and we ended up missing a few days due to flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2012 Author Share Posted August 23, 2012 this gfs is gonna be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 0z GFS shows an absolute soaker for VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2012 Author Share Posted August 23, 2012 my ivan wish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2012 Author Share Posted August 23, 2012 i like how it evaporates after truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 i like how it evaporates after truncation. I saw that too.. I was like wow look at 192... lots of rain... lets see 204 and... wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2012 Author Share Posted August 23, 2012 here's ivan for comparo.. pretty similar tho it had a bit of a neg tilt. too bad it won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 this gfs is gonna be good Almost looks like a Lee redux, but this time for the Apps, which I am sure many around here would not want to see again... if GFS had not decided to magically poof after 192... we would likely still be seeing another 12 hours of heavy rain... I would guess at least since the system is moving NE... DCA is approaching 2 inches of rain by 192 with what should be much more to come after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 0z Euro gives us nothing and helps the MW drought. 6z goes E of us so at least Leesburg stays dry in either scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Id just like some heavy rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 here's ivan for comparo.. pretty similar tho it had a bit of a neg tilt. too bad it won't happen. I'm ready for an Ivan redux. Bring on the tors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I saw that too.. I was like wow look at 192... lots of rain... lets see 204 and... wtf A winter preview... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Big difference in forward speed on the 0z vs. 6z GFS. 6z is almost 24 hours faster getting rain up to us. I'd prefer a slower solution so I'm not driving back from Maine on Wednesday into a TS remnant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 my ivan wish! You'll be held personally responsible for the 128 TWs and 27 tors that result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I was bored earlier and wanted to see Isaac from start to now, including cone (which I merged together) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 My official call to be changed later is just W of Tallahase. Port St. Joe landfall. Mark my words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2012 Author Share Posted August 23, 2012 I like Mobile as a starting point. I don't think it'll end up a major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I like Mobile as a starting point. I don't think it'll end up a major. First guess for me is FWB Cat 2. I'll be more confident after the G-IV mission for 0z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2012 Author Share Posted August 23, 2012 First guess for me is FWB Cat 2. I'll be more confident after the G-IV mission for 0z runs fort walton beach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2012 Author Share Posted August 23, 2012 I'm going to blow a gasket soon about the RNC shiz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 fort walton beach? Yeah. 75 mi difference is NBD at this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I'm going to blow a gasket soon about the RNC shiz. That's what you get for following politics. Yeah. 75 mi difference is NBD at this lead time. That's about where I was looking... sticking with my MOB to TLH range for now. I'm wondering if the COC will actually cross over the Keys or slide west before moving north through the eastern Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2012 Author Share Posted August 23, 2012 That's what you get for following politics. It's everywhere. I'm not a hurricane forecaster but I know patterns pretty well so I'm usually fairly good at tracks at least. I have a hard time seeing what the fuss is at this point. If it were to track in a way to threaten Tampa I'd think it would be a fairly weak system. Sure those old white guys might not like the rain etc. A Charley type event is almost totally off the table I think given the lack of a big trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 It's everywhere. I'm not a hurricane forecaster but I know patterns pretty well so I'm usually fairly good at tracks at least. I have a hard time seeing what the fuss is at this point. If it were to track in a way to threaten Tampa I'd think it would be a fairly weak system. Sure those old white guys might not like the rain etc. A Charley type event is almost totally off the table I think given the lack of a big trough. I see it here and there but it's not incredibly prevalent for me It's getting talked about because there's a still a chance and that's all that matters to most of the media/public, regardless of what the actual forecast is. We know it's NBD, but the media will keep running with it so long as people are listening. I'm sure you know all this already... I'm just writing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I know quite a few people in the Ft. Walton Beach area. I should grab a flight down if they're not planning to go anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 My official call to be changed later is just W of Tallahase. Port St. Joe landfall. Mark my words Now it is Houston. Still within my cone of fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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