Kmlwx Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Not buying into anything this far out!!!!! I don't think anybody is save for some desperate tropical weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 I don't think anybody is save for some desperate tropical weenies. Have a good feeling about 0z suite, since the 18z GFS came east and the ensembles are still way east. It needs to get it's act together if it ever wants to affect anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jviper Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 http://www.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 bump for Isaac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Maybe if it makes landfall in FL it can come up to the west like ivan and make for some interesting weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 From Adam: I took it between Tampa and Fort Myers next Tuesday. Who knows on intensity. I used Ernesto (2006) , Fay (2008), Charley (2004), Dennis (2005), and Ivan (2004) as possibilities in my discussion today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Ensembles look good for a coastal storm http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201209_ensmodel.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I think the paper suggests the same things about phases 1-3 being the most favorable for development. Even if it is a flawed paper, I like the figure showing phases 1-3 being more favorable for development than the other phases. Ventrice, M. J., C. D. Thorncroft, and P. E. Roundy (2011), The Madden- Julian Oscillation’s influence on African easterly waves and downstream tropical cyclogenesis, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 2704–2722, doi:10.1175/ MWR-D-10-05028.1. Wes, I'm sorry for the late response. I had a family emergency over the last week but things are getting better. I agree that the overall theme with the phases and possibility for rapid intensification are basically intuitive at this point. It's not the lack of originality that gets under my skin as much as the way they went about manipulating the data to use to develop that lack of originality. It just adds frustration to more frustration and then suddenly I find myself hating the whole paper. Really, what use or good comes from his findings anyway (good luck forecasting a MJO wave > 1SD in late summer/early autumn beyond a few days to anticipate a RI of some hurricane). Did you see how he divided ENSO? Years like 1991, e.g., are labeled "neutral" with his method. I don't mind the use of the MEI but dividing the years simply by how the stack against other years is NOT representative of the mean ENSO circulations. Therefore, some years were misrepresented. Also, where is the information to tell us he has a true MJO wave? How did he correct for possible false signals? Anyone involved with these EOFs knows that in the summer, generally a true MJO wave has a less of a chance at being detected than in the winter. He didn't account for this possibility or the fact they could be kelvin waves. Simply taking 1 SD MJO waves is not cutting it when there are numerous issues with that data. Stuff like this was being produced years before the paper and I found it to be "jumping on the bandwagon" more than anything enlightening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Not sure if it's been mentioned elsewhere, but the CWG article on the potential convention impact is linked on Drudge Report this morning... Could hurricane wreak havoc at Republican convention? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I'm rooting for a FL panhandle hit. That would allow it to get up here before curving OTS and give leesburg04 some love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Why would anyone even mention a possibility of where it is going to go at this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Why would anyone even mention a possibility of where it is going to go at this time? Your cruise was 2 weeks too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Your cruise was 2 weeks too early I got Emily last year, that was good enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Why would anyone even mention a possibility of where it is going to go at this time? One word: weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2012 Author Share Posted August 21, 2012 One word: weenie everywhere... meteorology is an entertainment source as much as a science these days. i guess it's time to stop lamenting that fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Why would anyone even mention a possibility of where it is going to go at this time? DCA 5" of rain IAD 3" of rain JYO drizzle and a wind gust of 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2012 Author Share Posted August 21, 2012 I like NHC's track/bullishness. Shift it north 30 miles and you have a tropical depression. Those stupid third world hurricane killers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 One word: weenie Ugh, I cant read the threads anymore with the metfans posts DCA 5" of rain IAD 3" of rain JYO drizzle and a wind gust of 12 OMG just like Irene you are probably spot on though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I like NHC's track/bullishness. Shift it north 30 miles and you have a tropical depression. Those stupid third world hurricane killers. Haiti always gets the best storms. NHC seems to favor the euro as of right now with it's current track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Ugh, I cant read the threads anymore with the metfans posts OMG just like Irene you are probably spot on though I did that for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I did that for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Filter skin ftw, Dave. Id imagine SEP will be in effect soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 generally speaking, the chances of a significant tc hit go down if the storm goes into the Caribbean, which seems quite likely at this point. Remnants and flooding rains would still be on the table, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Filter skin ftw, Dave. Id imagine SEP will be in effect soon. I think the problem with SEP is that is does reduce some of the fun of tracking these systems. I personally enjoy the play-by-play for the model runs coming in. Nobody is even discussing the GFS here or on the main board (haven't checked the other sub-forums). Anyway, the GFS is a hurricane killer, with a lot of interaction with Hispaniola, and then a traverse right down the spine of Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I think the problem with SEP is that is does reduce some of the fun of tracking these systems. I personally enjoy the play-by-play for the model runs coming in. Nobody is even discussing the GFS here or on the main board (haven't checked the other sub-forums). Anyway, the GFS is a hurricane killer, with a lot of interaction with Hispaniola, and then a traverse right down the spine of Cuba. There might not be much model talk since it is almost akin to winter storm watching. Every little model shift will send people into a tizzy. It is just so hard to take anything seriously with the large amount of uncertainty. That said, any trend the GFS has toward a more W track would only give more credence to what the Euro showed from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2012 Author Share Posted August 21, 2012 There might not be much model talk since it is almost akin to winter storm watching. Every little model shift will send people into a tizzy. It is just so hard to take anything seriously with the large amount of uncertainty. That said, any trend the GFS has toward a more W track would only give more credence to what the Euro showed from last night. The "trend" this year is for slow development and west/south trends IMO. Haven't looked closely enough but wouldn't be shocked to see it miss south as much as I'd like to see it track across the islands to screw up the hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 There might not be much model talk since it is almost akin to winter storm watching. Every little model shift will send people into a tizzy. It is just so hard to take anything seriously with the large amount of uncertainty. That said, any trend the GFS has toward a more W track would only give more credence to what the Euro showed from last night. Not like there is anything else going on other than one ridiculously beautiful day out. Scrapes the entire west coast of FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 The "trend" this year is for slow development and west/south trends IMO. Haven't looked closely enough but wouldn't be shocked to see it miss south as much as I'd like to see it track across the islands to screw up the hype. the best chance at a real system is definitely the south route. These forecasts are always tough...there really isn't all that much difference in track between what would be a 40 kt ts over Hispaniola/Cuba or a 110 kt monster just south lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I think the problem with SEP is that is does reduce some of the fun of tracking these systems. I personally enjoy the play-by-play for the model runs coming in. Nobody is even discussing the GFS here or on the main board (haven't checked the other sub-forums). Anyway, the GFS is a hurricane killer, with a lot of interaction with Hispaniola, and then a traverse right down the spine of Cuba. I saw some talk on the main page, but even if SEP is in effect, it's mainly for the main thread. I can't imagine Ian, Randy and Midlo would SEP in here...as long as we aren't ridiculous (which we, as a subforum, tend not to be) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I saw some talk on the main page, but even if SEP is in effect, it's mainly for the main thread. I can't imagine Ian, Randy and Midlo would SEP in here...as long as we aren't ridiculous (which we, as a subforum, tend not to be) Pretty much. We're trying to cater to everyone here. Amateur hobbyists have the banter thread in the main forum and the subforum threads devoted to the tropics and the hard core science nerdy stuff goes in the main thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.