mattie g Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Just waiting for the "source" to post something on WikiLeaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Just waiting for the "source" to post something on WikiLeaks. lol I'll pass that along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 13, 2012 Author Share Posted August 13, 2012 ok, no more "source" talk unless it's revealed.. it will get old. sorry. feel free to plagiarize and pretend it's your own info if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Okie dokie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 http://typhoon.atmos...otzbach2012.pdf HM, your beach trip probably is the biggest and best factor for improving the chances of a storm hitting the east coast. Wes, I don't know what's worse: the premise and methodology of that paper or the potential for my vacation to get ruined by a tropical system. That's got to be one of the worst peer-reviewed papers I've seen in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Wes, I don't know what's worse: the premise and methodology of that paper or the potential for my vacation to get ruined by a tropical system. That's got to be one of the worst peer-reviewed papers I've seen in a long time. I think the paper suggests the same things about phases 1-3 being the most favorable for development. Even if it is a flawed paper, I like the figure showing phases 1-3 being more favorable for development than the other phases. Ventrice, M. J., C. D. Thorncroft, and P. E. Roundy (2011), The Madden- Julian Oscillation’s influence on African easterly waves and downstream tropical cyclogenesis, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 2704–2722, doi:10.1175/ MWR-D-10-05028.1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 @AmWx_Adam Still watching the Aug 26-Sep 5 period for an East Coast threat. Step back from the Euro ens today, with upper level trof 500mi farther east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 So it's coming right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 So it's coming right? so is another winter like 09/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 So it's coming right? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 18, 2012 Author Share Posted August 18, 2012 I can't wait for 2016.. the I storms are awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Heaviest weather up and down entire eastern seaboard has been between Easton and Cambridge for last hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 I'm too lazy to look - is it heading NW or NE at that point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 18, 2012 Author Share Posted August 18, 2012 I'm too lazy to look - is it heading NW or NE at that point? It's pointing at us.. that's all that matters. I'm sure the SNE thread is talking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 I'm too lazy to look - is it heading NW or NE at that point? Just looking at the pressures, my guess would be NNW or N then curving to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Something to track at least. And maybe everyone can get a surf show if anything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 FWIW - I bet 2016 will be the year we get to the "H" name but never get to Ian's name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 992? Weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 It's pointing at us.. that's all that matters. I'm sure the SNE thread is talking about it. In one of the tropical threads one of the posters wrote that the 06Z gfs has a "happy" solution or something like that. I think it would be less happy if the forecast were a 12 hour one with a cat 2 or so racing towards sne. I sure don't want a any isabelle or Hazel-like storm hitting our area. The derecho was bad enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Lmao at the 12z GFS for 94L. Brings it right into our area and then takes it on some weird track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 18, 2012 Author Share Posted August 18, 2012 Lmao at the 12z GFS for 94L. A leesburg04 event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 A leesburg04 event! You said there'd be a Leesburg04 event coming. BOOK IT! Also - that would be some nasty surge I bet. Look how weird the track/evolution is after it goes through us. I'm loling Seems like a good "consensus" on something MAYBE making it across the pond though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 18, 2012 Author Share Posted August 18, 2012 You said there'd be a Leesburg04 event coming. BOOK IT! Also - that would be some nasty surge I bet. Look how weird the track/evolution is after it goes through us. I'm loling Seems like a good "consensus" on something MAYBE making it across the pond though. Verbatim hard to see it be a big event tracking right along the coast but who know and it's wrong anyway I'm sure. It does appear this system will try to threaten the EC though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Seems like a good "consensus" on something MAYBE making it across the pond though. To quote Ian, at this point - meh. Euro seems to dissipate it; other models take it into the Yucatan; GFS does something with at a point yet to be determined between OBX and Rhode Island. We're still talking 14 days out, and nothing to Mexico to RI is quite a spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 To quote Ian, at this point - meh. Euro seems to dissipate it; other models take it into the Yucatan; GFS does something with at a point yet to be determined between OBX and Rhode Island. We're still talking 14 days out, and nothing to Mexico to RI is quite a spread. Yeah no doubt. Still, it's something to watch. Conditions seem to be some of the best we've seen so far and we are approaching the peak climo period for hurricanes anyway. Not going to get a really nice handle on this until 1) we get recon and 2) better model init data once it's a named storm. At least we have something to track that's more interesting than a drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 18, 2012 Author Share Posted August 18, 2012 Ivan! http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/#2004-O-NEW-KLWX-TO-W-0032/USCOMP-N0R-200409171845 Cycle upward thru event number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Some of the posts in 94L thread are special. A "nowcasting" situation? Really? You nowcast a hurricane's precise landfall position a few hours ahead. You don't start nowcasting the path of a not-yet formed hurricane because the 11 day GFS shifts from run to run. A c***tease? Really? There's no named storm yet! What solution has been latched onto that now this storm is supposedly going to deviate from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Just for fun here's a screen cap of tropical systems passing within 50nm of roughly DCA - I'm bored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Not buying into anything this far out!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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