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Mid-Atlantic tropical thread


Ian

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http://typhoon.atmos...otzbach2012.pdf

HM, your beach trip probably is the biggest and best factor for improving the chances of a storm hitting the east coast.

Wes, I don't know what's worse: the premise and methodology of that paper or the potential for my vacation to get ruined by a tropical system. That's got to be one of the worst peer-reviewed papers I've seen in a long time.

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Wes, I don't know what's worse: the premise and methodology of that paper or the potential for my vacation to get ruined by a tropical system. That's got to be one of the worst peer-reviewed papers I've seen in a long time.

I think the paper suggests the same things about phases 1-3 being the most favorable for development. Even if it is a flawed paper, I like the figure showing phases 1-3 being more favorable for development than the other phases.

Ventrice, M. J., C. D. Thorncroft, and P. E. Roundy (2011), The Madden-

Julian Oscillation’s influence on African easterly waves and downstream

tropical cyclogenesis, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 2704–2722, doi:10.1175/

MWR-D-10-05028.1.

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It's pointing at us.. that's all that matters.

I'm sure the SNE thread is talking about it. :P

In one of the tropical threads one of the posters wrote that the 06Z gfs has a "happy" solution or something like that. I think it would be less happy if the forecast were a 12 hour one with a cat 2 or so racing towards sne. I sure don't want a any isabelle or Hazel-like storm hitting our area. The derecho was bad enough.

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A leesburg04 event!

You said there'd be a Leesburg04 event coming. BOOK IT!

Also - that would be some nasty surge I bet. Look how weird the track/evolution is after it goes through us. I'm loling

Seems like a good "consensus" on something MAYBE making it across the pond though.

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You said there'd be a Leesburg04 event coming. BOOK IT!

Also - that would be some nasty surge I bet. Look how weird the track/evolution is after it goes through us. I'm loling

Seems like a good "consensus" on something MAYBE making it across the pond though.

Verbatim hard to see it be a big event tracking right along the coast but who know and it's wrong anyway I'm sure. It does appear this system will try to threaten the EC though.

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Seems like a good "consensus" on something MAYBE making it across the pond though.

To quote Ian, at this point - meh. Euro seems to dissipate it; other models take it into the Yucatan; GFS does something with at a point yet to be determined between OBX and Rhode Island. We're still talking 14 days out, and nothing to Mexico to RI is quite a spread.

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To quote Ian, at this point - meh. Euro seems to dissipate it; other models take it into the Yucatan; GFS does something with at a point yet to be determined between OBX and Rhode Island. We're still talking 14 days out, and nothing to Mexico to RI is quite a spread.

Yeah no doubt. Still, it's something to watch. Conditions seem to be some of the best we've seen so far and we are approaching the peak climo period for hurricanes anyway.

Not going to get a really nice handle on this until 1) we get recon and 2) better model init data once it's a named storm. At least we have something to track that's more interesting than a drought.

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Some of the posts in 94L thread are special. A "nowcasting" situation? Really? You nowcast a hurricane's precise landfall position a few hours ahead. You don't start nowcasting the path of a not-yet formed hurricane because the 11 day GFS shifts from run to run.

A c***tease? Really? There's no named storm yet! What solution has been latched onto that now this storm is supposedly going to deviate from?

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