mattie g Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 I had almost 16" of rain in three weeks last year. That was awesome. My basement, my bathroom, and my ceiling disagree. But over 10" in one day was an awesome spectacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 stationary fronts aren't tropical. hasn't that been the cause for 2 of our heaviest rainfall events over that last 5-10 years or so? june 06 wasn't tropical at all... last yr was certainly at least partially aided by lee. plus we had irene etc. we tend to get at least one or two good dumpings a year from tropical stuff i'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 june 06 wasn't tropical at all... last yr was certainly at least partially aided by lee. plus we had irene etc. we tend to get at least one or two good dumpings a year from tropical stuff i'd say. I knew the second i posted that i should have thrown Lee in there as a counter example. Some of those were so hit or miss as far as who really got nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Riptide is drooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 I actually think the US East Coast is vulnerable at the end of the month I won't reveal my source, but it is reliable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 I won't reveal my source, but it is reliable Frankie weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 I won't reveal my source, but it is reliable Ian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Ian? worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 worse Foot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 You know you wanted it. Not during that week. I'm supposed to spend a day at the BMW performance center in Spartanburg, SC and pick up my new Bimmer to drive it back home. I can't have trees falling on my new car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Ian you are right. Usually you get 1 or 2 systems a year that pass close to the East Coast and/or actually bring us a decent rain. The situation is growing a bit more interesting at the very end of the month with the expected pattern and of course peaking tropical season. There are also some analog years, like 2006, that had something at the end of August. For personal reasons, I hope the end of August is bone dry and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 8, 2012 Author Share Posted August 8, 2012 I won't reveal my source, but it is reliable adam steals his forecasts from me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 adam steals his forecasts from me He just got a raise, you should ask for your share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Ian you are right. Usually you get 1 or 2 systems a year that pass close to the East Coast and/or actually bring us a decent rain. The situation is growing a bit more interesting at the very end of the month with the expected pattern and of course peaking tropical season. There are also some analog years, like 2006, that had something at the end of August. For personal reasons, I hope the end of August is bone dry and warm. Always nice when you and I are on the same page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 8, 2012 Author Share Posted August 8, 2012 is this our hurricane? http://yfrog.com/nxvwnbvj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 is this our hurricane? http://yfrog.com/nxvwnbvj I think so - it will probably poof over water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 is this our hurricane? http://yfrog.com/nxvwnbvj Yep. Thats the wave. Mali is expierencing sustained winds of 15-20mph with pressure around 1008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 My source says things should get active soon MJO is going to be favorable for development/intensification and the synoptic pattern will be favorable for an East Coast landfall. I'm telling people +\- 5 days around Aug 31. By next Wednesday, it will be obvious on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Looks a pretty blah for a while. Lotsa dry air and shear in the atlantic. Nothing remotely interesting traversing africa. Later is better anyway. Maybe we can have a late oct arctic front collide with a landfall around va beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 My source says things should get active soon JB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 JB? Omg no, my source deserves a lot more credit than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Omg no, Just checking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Omg no, my source deserves a lot more credit than that Ji? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Omg no, my source deserves a lot more credit than that you're still hanging with bethesda boy? Practicing your grill cover tie down moves, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Ji? lol, no and it's not BB either I'm just giving you all inside info as I am sure next week it will blow up on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 13, 2012 Author Share Posted August 13, 2012 JB? Even JB wouldn't predict what a model will show at day 10 from 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 My source says things should get active soon Your source is definitely correct that models will be a little behind on this potential. I agree that the very end of the month would support something coming close to the East Coast. I'm not sure the pattern will be as ideal as Irene but this period is notable in the analogs if something were to come along in the Atlantic. I am hoping the idea is wrong altogether. I will be at the beach in his forecast interval! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 The MJO is currently in phase 1 so it should be in phase 3 by 10 days. Phases 2-3 are pretty good for rapid intensification based on this study. http://typhoon.atmos...otzbach2012.pdf It also tells you what to look for in terms of velocity potential. We certainly should have enhanced convection in the tropical Atlantic which increases the chances of development so Mapgirl's source may not be quite on the level of JB or Ji. I'm not sold on the east coast but it's way to early to know where any storm might go. Plus, we don't yet have a storm. If the Canadian model with its high bias for storms doesn't pick up on something soon, even with the favorable MJO, I'd be hesitant to jump unless of course a system looks like it is forming on satellite. HM, your beach trip probably is the biggest and best factor for improving the chances of a storm hitting the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 My source thinks the MJO progression will be a bit slower than 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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