Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Why Did Irene Weaken When Everyone Said It Would Get Stronger?


Recommended Posts

Here in central VA, Irene caused more power outages than Isabel, though the overall damage wasn't quite as bad. It clearly overperformed up here with max wind gusts just below Isabel and many places getting several inches of rain when generally about an inch was forecasted. What surprised me the most was heading down to the OBX a couple of days later. The area from say Ivor down to Currituck Co. looked relatively damage free. You almost couldn't tell there was a hurricane. A sliver from Wakefield up through New Kent Co. supposedly took the greatest wind damage, worse than Isabel. You can't say Irene underperformed in NC either where I understand sound flooding was greater than Isabel.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This:

$15.6 billion in INSURED losses in the U.S. (5th costliest hurricane in US History). 49 directly killed, 7 indirect. I'm sure those deaths were just a nuisance to the families.

You don't need a textbook stadium satellite pic to be a major disaster - especially considering flooding.

As for Ernesto, never had a prayer due to wind shear. Other reasons above also add to the cyclone suppression.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just because Irene was by *tropical definition* weaker than initially feared by many doesn't mean the impact was overall less than what would have been with a stronger hurricane. Irene began ET a little earlier than if it were a stronger hurricane moving up the coast. During ET, the strongest winds shift to the northwest quad, and the rain shield expands to the NW. These two factors contributed to the enormous impact in New England. The flooding in VT would not have been nearly as catastrophic if Irene was a stronger tropical system, maintained purely tropical, as it moved north

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Weather modification is a lost cause because hurricanes and tropical cyclones are necessary components of the atmospheric circulation. The possible benefits from short-term modification may lead to greater environmental impacts in the future; assuming that the US government currently maintains a weather modification program (not likely). If we ever decide to go that route; it will be the end of an era for the Earth. Such damage could also be inflicted by a noreaster or strong coastal low; you don't need a hurricane for historic flooding. March 1993 killed more people and was more widespread than Irene.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just because Irene was by *tropical definition* weaker than initially feared by many doesn't mean the impact was overall less than what would have been with a stronger hurricane. Irene began ET a little earlier than if it were a stronger hurricane moving up the coast. During ET, the strongest winds shift to the northwest quad, and the rain shield expands to the NW. These two factors contributed to the enormous impact in New England. The flooding in VT would not have been nearly as catastrophic if Irene was a stronger tropical system, maintained purely tropical, as it moved north

The flooding in VT was terrible but no one nationally other than HPC was even concerned with it ahead of time. The coastal impacts were largely less than feared if also impressive in spots. Billon dollar scales are how we often measure but I'm not sure it's as meaningful as some use it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just curious. When every hurricane makes the turn north it instantly gets weaker.

The same happened to Isabel back in 2003.

i don't know why they get weaker ,but i know the closer they get ,the more people [me too] start praying for the storm to ''go away''.......hope it works this year..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My memory is a little fuzzy now but, as mentioned earlier, I distinctly recall raising a couple of issues on another board as Irene neared the coast. The wind field was wayyy spread out, making it difficult for the winds to catch up to the pressure. The eyewall was starting to get ragged IIRC, further decreasing Irene's ability to wrap up and gain intensity, and there was also a pretty massive chunk of dry air that I'm really surprised more people didn't take note of as she neared the coast. You could see the dry air penetrating nearly into the core pretty early on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...