Why Did Irene Weaken When Everyone Said It Would Get Stronger?

[Coach McGuirk]

Just curious. When every hurricane makes the turn north it instantly gets weaker.

The same happened to Isabel back in 2003.

[MJO812]

Cooler waters? I know Irene also weaken because it ran into a lot of dry air as it approached Cape Hatteras. A lot of forecasts on t.v had 75-90 mph winds with 6-10 inches of rain for Irene in my area lol.

[tmagan]

When a hurricane is coming up the east coast, part of the circulation is over land, that will also weaken it as well.

[Coach McGuirk]

The center of circulation is not.

In fact it's usually under very warm waters.

[Riptide]

It's probably related to our 7-year streak without a major hurricane landfall in the United States. Irene was never a well-organized hurricane nor a long-tracker like Isabel.

[Coach McGuirk]

It's probably related to our 7-year streak without a major hurricane landfall in the United States. Irene was never a well-organized hurricane nor a long-tracker like Isabel.

I'm just curious as to why some hurricanes suck and others do amazing under the same conditions.

[Riptide]

I'm just curious as to why some hurricanes suck and others do amazing under the same conditions.

I agree with your ideas about sea surface temperatures; they are coolish but can still support a decent hurricane. Perhaps since East Coast landfalls are very rare; it seems like every event is a crapshoot when it's really only a coincidence (due to eyewall replacement cycles, etc) and eventually the luck will run out.

[MJO812]

[Riptide]

Cooler waters? I know Irene also weaken because it ran into a lot of dry air as it approached Cape Hatteras. A lot of forecasts on t.v had 75-90 mph winds with 6-10 inches of rain for Irene in my area lol.

Highest sustained wind inland during Irene was 67 mph near Cape Hatteras.

[gulfcane]

a continuous eyewall replacement cycle was induced which permanently disrupted the core because it had a gazillion wind maximas. The pressure was low but the energy was dispersed over a large area because of the multiple wind maximas. The same thing has happened to nearly every major hurricane (nearly) threatening US landfall the last 10 years. Charley and Wilma are the only 2 exceptions I can think of. The rest all had eyewall replacement issued at landfall. Yes, katrina, ivan, dennis, all the strong cat 2's ect.

[MJO812]

Highest sustained wind inland during Irene was 67 mph near Cape Hatteras.

Some parts down south got hit hard by Irene. I remember the Euro showing a Cat 2 on one model run slamming into Cape May and then coming into NYC as a Cat 1.

[Riptide]

Some parts down south got hit hard by Irene. I remember the Euro showing a Cat 2 on one model run slamming into Cape May and then coming into NYC as a Cat 1.

[Coach McGuirk]

It was more of a nuisance storm than a significant storm.

[BrianLaverty]

HUGE nuisance... lost power here for close to 2 weeks due to that damn storm.

[Ian]

It was more of a nuisance storm than a significant storm.

which makes the idea of a real storm impacting that area kind of a nightmare

[andyhb]

I agree with your ideas about sea surface temperatures; they are coolish but can still support a decent hurricane. Perhaps since East Coast landfalls are very rare; it seems like every event is a crapshoot when it's really only a coincidence (due to eyewall replacement cycles, etc) and eventually the luck will run out.

For comparison, the 1938 hurricane was moving 50+ mph when it was heading for Long Island/NE so it spent a short amount of time over cooler waters, enhancing its strength greatly further north.

[Analog96]

It was more of a nuisance storm than a significant storm.

A "nuisance" that destroyed people's lives and dreams in upstate NY and VT.

[Rib]

I do know hurricanes moving up the east coast begin transitioning from purely tropical storms into hybrids which weakens their overall wind speed but spreads out their wind field. All the of the rain and wind transitions to the north and west side of the storm. It basically becomes half a storm. Sucking dry air off the land maybe has something to do with it? I'm not exactly sure. It's hard to strengthen when you are half a storm.

[tmagan]

Go to the 1:20 mark, even though the winds weren't nearly as strong, imagine the reaction though in today's world.

[SnowGoose69]

I was downplaying that thing the entire 2 days leading up to it, my biggest concern was E-SE winds with wet ground which is ultimately what did all of the damage. There were a few factors I did not like, the main one being the storm was going to hit way too much land on the way up, its one thing to brush the outer banks, Irene more or less hugged all of NE NC and SE VA and was within 50 miles of pretty much going far enough inland to fall apart completely. The system was too large and was going to pull in a bit more dry air because of that. It was too early in the season for a storm that weak off NC to make it to LI/NYC as a hurricane, in August when the steering is not as strong as late September the system needs to be a Cat 3 or 4 off NC to make it to NYC as a hurricane. Also, it was disorganized crossing the Gulf Stream as it approached NC and there was no reason at that point to believe it was ever going to strengthen again, in the end it was 10 kts or so stronger upon arrival to NYC than I ever thought.

[Coach McGuirk]

which makes the idea of a real storm impacting that area kind of a nightmare

I live right on the water in Hampton, VA and was thinking. That's it?

I prepared for the worst and it wasn't even nearly as bad as Isabel.

[Amped]

It was more of a nuisance storm than a significant storm.

Frequent dry air intrusions effected the storm. It moved along the coast where there was lower TCHP. There was also a little bit of shear, but it looked survivable.

Also the internal structure (personality of the storm) plays a role. The core may have been damaged over PR and Hispanola. This may have caused the lack of deepening.

However Hurricane Donna survived as a coastal hugger 115MPH gusts on long island. Also Hugo and Hazel both regenerated after an encounter with Shreddarolla. So there are exceptions to every rule you try to make with hurricane intensity.

Oh and add Floyd to your list of underperformers.

[Coach McGuirk]

I went out in the middle of Irene with no problem. lol

[Analog96]

Frequent dry air intrusions effected the storm. It moved along the coast where there was lower TCHP. There was also a little bit of shear, but it looked survivable.

Also the internal structure (personality of the storm) plays a role. The core may have been damaged over PR and Hispanola. This may have caused the lack of deepening.

However Hurricane Donna survived as a coastal hugger 115MPH gusts on long island. Also Hugo and Hazel both regenerated after an encounter with Shreddarolla. So there are exceptions to every rule you try to make with hurricane intensity.

Oh and add Floyd to your list of underperformers.

Again, don't tell people in Bound Brook, NJ, that Floyd was an underperformer.

[Amped]

Again, don't tell people in Bound Brook, NJ, that Floyd was an underperformer.

Dear Everyone of earth except those who live in Boundbrook NJ,

Floyd was an under-performer!! It was a CAT2 at landfall when it could have easily been a 3 or 4.

Sincerely,

Adam

[Coach McGuirk]

Dear Everyone of earth except those who live in Boundbrook NJ,

Floyd was an under-performer!! It was a CAT2 at landfall when it could have easily been a 3 or 4.

Sincerely,

Adam

I don't think Irene even had hurricane force winds. Maybe a gust here and there.

[Martin]

I live right on the water in Hampton, VA and was thinking. That's it?

I prepared for the worst and it wasn't even nearly as bad as Isabel.

Glad you didn't have much damage in your area but down south of you on the water it was a different story.

I had around 20K in damages. Pier destroyed, most of the backyard wiped out, flooding in the house and garage. Power wasn't an issue since the winds didn't knock down too many trees. The storm surge was below Isabel in terms of the tide gauges but due to the wind direction the waves and destruction to the shore were greater in my area than Isabel. Each storm is a different creature and while many blow off Irene, it still was a major storm for the mid atlantic.

[Ellinwood]

I live right on the water in Hampton, VA and was thinking. That's it?

I prepared for the worst and it wasn't even nearly as bad as Isabel.

I went out in the middle of Irene with no problem. lol

I don't think Irene even had hurricane force winds. Maybe a gust here and there.

Your backyard is not representative of the entire East Coast. Please do not judge a billion dollar disaster by the very limited amount of the storm you saw.

[Conclue]

Just curious. When every hurricane makes the turn north it instantly gets weaker.

The same happened to Isabel back in 2003.

Well there could different inhibiting factors for each storm. With Irene the biggest thing I noticed at the time when she first started weakening was that her ciruclation both at the surface and aloft was so expansive that it actually acted to help kill itself as it moved northward. There was a large pocket of dry air over the great lakes/ohio valley and western mid-atlantic that she had tapped into that eventually helped to degenerate her system as she continued to move northward this process continued along with the regular inhibiting factors as she moved north with less warm water, more land friction etc. As she was chuggin up the east coast the consensus was intensification. I don't think many of us or NHC took into account her expansive windfield entraining dry air into the system from over the USA. it actually began to pull it cyclonically from north of her and to the west entraiing into the system at the southern portion. I remember her southern CDO diminishing before her northern. I don't think many saw that dry air intrustion occuring.

Hope that helps. I don't remember Isabel. I only started learning in 2004.

[ApacheTrout]

That "nuisance" storm destroyed nearly 750 million dollars of infrastructure here in VT.

• 3500 homes damaged
  
• 531 miles of state highway damaged and closed for an extended period of time
  
• 2,260 miles of town highway damaged
  
• 277 town bridges damaged/destroyed
  

If you're judging by wind in your backyard, sure, it was a bust, epic fail, FTL, or whatever catch phrase you want to throw at it. If you expanded your vision a little or came for a visit to VT, you'd see numerous uninhabitable homes still standing wearing the damage they suffered during the storm. You'd see town roads still impassable because the $ value of the damage exceeded town's annual budgets by 2, 5, and 10 times and the towns having no immediate ability to repair the damage to the bridges, culverts, or the hundreds of feet long by tens of feet deep gashes in the roadside where the flooding streams chewed away for several hours. You'd see whole river valleys that need to be re-surveyed because extensive landslides changed the topography depicted on maps. You'd see caskets in Rochester, VT still waiting to be re-entombed. Nuisance storm, indeed.