weathergeek5 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 000 WTNT41 KNHC 040242 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012 THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH EMERGED FROM WEST AFRICA YESTERDAY QUICKLY DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL DEEP CONVECTION TODAY. THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CENTER DUE TO THE IMPINGING EFFECTS OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS AT 00Z WERE 2.0 FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB...AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS PERSISTED AND IMPROVED SLIGHTLY SINCE THAT TIME. THUS ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. IT APPEARS THAT THE GENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE WAS AIDED BY THE INTERACTION OF THE WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING CONVECTIVELY-COUPLED KELVIN WAVE AS DEPICTED BY ANALYSES FROM SUNY-ALBANY. MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT...AS THE SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY BEING STEERED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. FINDING THE INITIAL POSITION WAS SUBSTANTIALLY AIDED BY SOME SSMI AND WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM NRL. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST- NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN THE DEEP LAYER FLOW. AFTER ABOUT TWO DAYS...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE WEAKENING AND THUS ADVECTED ALONG WESTWARD BY THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE TCVA CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. WHILE THE CYCLONE UNDERWENT GENESIS RATHER QUICKLY TODAY...IT MAY BE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT DEVELOP MUCH FURTHER. CURRENTLY THE CYCLONE IS BEING AFFECTED BY MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. WHILE THIS SHOULD DIMINISH IN ABOUT A DAY...THE COMBINATION OF ONLY LUKEWARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A FAIRLY DRY STABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO PEAK ONLY AS A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM. AFTER ABOUT TWO DAYS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WEAKENING AND IT MAY NO LONGER BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY FOUR OR FIVE AS SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS AND THE DYNAMICAL GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WITH A BIT MORE EMPHASIS ON THE LATTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 13.8N 27.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 14.5N 29.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 15.1N 31.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 15.4N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 15.6N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 16.2N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 16.5N 47.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0000Z 16.5N 53.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 jb says possible east coast threat. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi I believe system sw Cape Verdes is a storm. Should NOT intensify much next 5-7 days track of more concern to e coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 jb says possible east coast threat. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi I believe system sw Cape Verdes is a storm. Should NOT intensify much next 5-7 days track of more concern to e coast I would agree with JB but no models are developing this much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 I would agree with JB but no models are developing this much. Who knows at this stage? This COULD be a system that dies, or just travels along as a wave until about 60 or 65W ,and then encounters a more favorbable environment, and strengthens. Sometimes these type of systems BECOME better threats by staying weak. The fact that they're weak helps them avoid the upper level steering currents, and steers the shallow system more Westward instead of recurving toward the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Could be a surprise RI underway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 jb says possible east coast threat. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi I believe system sw Cape Verdes is a storm. Should NOT intensify much next 5-7 days track of more concern to e coast B.S. the ctrl Atlantic TUTT will rip this to shreds before it can even come close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Convective Coupled Kelvin Wave mentioned in the advisory, and it's by Landsea. Pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Let's cut out the JB talk altogether, as Phil suggested in the other thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Let's cut out the JB talk altogether, as Phil suggested in the other thread Regardless of what JB said, it's pretty high confidence that the TUTT will kill this, which is relevant to the topic of TD 6 and its future. But man, it looks good right now. Assuming the low-lvl center is co-located with what looks like the circulation center on MW, this ought to be a strong TS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Convective Coupled Kelvin Wave mentioned in the advisory, and it's by Landsea. Pretty cool. Get out of here! That's the first mention of a Kelvin wave in the Atlantic basin ever!! MY WORK IS DONE! I'm glad my talk with Chris at the AMS trop conf finally persuaded him! That and all of my recent posts to the t-storms list about this Kelvin wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012 800 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM... SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH...65 KM/HR. SUMMARY OF 0800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION -------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 29.7W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES $$ FORECASTER BLAKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Regardless of what JB said, it's pretty high confidence that the TUTT will kill this, which is relevant to the topic of TD 6 and its future. But man, it looks good right now. Assuming the low-lvl center is co-located with what looks like the circulation center on MW, this ought to be a strong TS right now. Fairly quick degeneration into an open wave is the best chance Florence has of ever being an ECUSA threat. A developed system already near 15ºN won't come 40 degrees across the Atlantic without finding an escape route, a tropical wave in low level Easterlies that tries to develop as it gets North of the Lesser Antilles might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 looks impressive for a 40 mph storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Get out of here! That's the first mention of a Kelvin wave in the Atlantic basin ever!! MY WORK IS DONE! I'm glad my talk with Chris at the AMS trop conf finally persuaded him! That and all of my recent posts to the t-storms list about this Kelvin wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Fairly quick degeneration into an open wave is the best chance Florence has of ever being an ECUSA threat. A developed system already near 15ºN won't come 40 degrees across the Atlantic without finding an escape route, a tropical wave in low level Easterlies that tries to develop as it gets North of the Lesser Antilles might. Exactly! If these things develop too fast and too far East, they recurve rapidly. We need it to fall apart, and then regenerate much further West to be a threat, although there have been a few exceptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Get out of here! That's the first mention of a Kelvin wave in the Atlantic basin ever!! MY WORK IS DONE! I'm glad my talk with Chris at the AMS trop conf finally persuaded him! That and all of my recent posts to the t-storms list about this Kelvin wave. Congratulations! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Florence 50 mph at 5 pm, may reach as high as 60 mph tomorrow before weakening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Florence 50 mph at 5 pm, may reach as high as 60 mph tomorrow before weakening The GFS is much more agressive in the medium range, making Florence a formidable hurricane. I'm starting to think that's the more likely solution the stronger Florence gets, the more it will be able to fend off the marginal SSTs and SAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 http://www.atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin/latest.cgi?ir-e florence looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 New GFS at resolution chop has Florence approacing 70ºW. I predict a massive surge in volume in certain regional subforums if this comes close to verifying.. The 500 mb forecast suggests heartbreak, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 New GFS at resolution chop has Florence approacing 70ºW. I predict a massive surge in volume in certain regional subforums if this comes close to verifying.. The 500 mb forecast suggests heartbreak, however. Least it will be interesting to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Least it will be interesting to track Intensity also magically keeps increasing and NHC still believes it will die out by 120 hours, up to 60 mph now. Completely different system from Ernesto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 On mobile..any changes to flo's demise as forecast by nhc yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 On mobile..any changes to flo's demise as forecast by nhc yesterday. Still expected to diminish but could restrengthen once past 60W, currently too far out to be forecasted by the NHC. SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 35.6W ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Least it will be interesting to track not really unless you like to watch dry air and shear kill storms. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/salmain.php?∏=splitE&time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Any chance this survives? Going to be in Ocracoke August 11-18... would be fun to have a tropical storm while down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Florence is dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Vis loops- Florence probably doesn't quite have West winds on the South side of the center, but except for not having a closed circulation, it looks like a tropical cyclone with convection over the center. Still gaining some latitude, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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