andyhb Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Decided to start an individual thread for you guys for this one given the last one got enveloped within the general discussion... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO OH/TN VALLEYS... ...MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OH/TN VALLEYS... THE PRIMARY DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE TIED TO THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A POTENT UPPER TROUGH...FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY TO QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MONDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A MODERATELY STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY THE UPPER OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT EARLY DAY TSTMS AND REMNANT OUTFLOWS COULD BE FACTORS...AN INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION OF TSTMS OTHERWISE SEEMS PROBABLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NY/PA AND OTHER PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MODERATE BUOYANCY /1000-3000 J PER KG SBCAPE/ WILL ACCOUNT FOR STRONG/SUSTAINED STORMS WITHIN A WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS ARE LIKELY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY OVERALL HAZARD...BUT SOME SUPERCELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY/PA. SEVERAL ORGANIZED SYSTEMS/CLUSTERS MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...WITHIN A WEAKER SHEAR BUT MORE UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL REGIME...SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/MID-SOUTH AND PERHAPS OTHER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 This should brings severe weather here in Qc-On sunday afternoon-evening. Very good LLJ.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 The LLJ is much more impressive then last weeks moderate risk event, and it appears that supercells could fire on the cold front from NY to W PA to E OH, could pose a fairly significant severe threat and tornado threat also, i think we could see a day 2 moderate risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 The LLJ is much more impressive then last weeks moderate risk event, and it appears that supercells could fire on the cold front from NY to W PA to E OH, could pose a fairly significant severe threat and tornado threat also, i think we could see a day 2 moderate risk Doubt it. It's harder than you think to get a D2 moderate anywhere, let alone the Northeast. I'd like to see better deep layer shear, steeper mid level lapse rates and morning convection could also screw this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Doubt it. It's harder than you think to get a D2 moderate anywhere, let alone the Northeast. I'd like to see better deep layer shear, steeper mid level lapse rates and morning convection could also screw this up. Well, it happened last week, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Well, it happened last week, lol It wont this time... SPC talking about weak vertical shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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