wxsmwhrms Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Pretty much always. I'd rather have the Euro and the GFS as intensity guidance than anything else. I agree with that for the most part, although having said that certainly the likelihood of the globals struggling with the intensity goes up the smaller the system gets. To me, the dry air and fast motion are the things that put a red flag up for me in the near term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 I agree with that for the most part, although having said that certainly the likelihood of the globals struggling with the intensity goes up the smaller the system gets. Yeah, totally. But if I could only have one piece of guidance for intensity as a one-size-fits-all, it'd be the Euro op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Yeah, totally. But if I could only have one piece of guidance for intensity as a one-size-fits-all, it'd be the Euro op. Absolutely. I do find it interesting that the 00Z EC does keep a hold of a well defined low level vortmax with a closed isobar which would seem to imply it at least wants to keep some sort of a (small?) system all the way across - but certainly the fact that it doesn't get more robust is not a positive, given the negative factors being discussed. Conversely, FWIW, the new 12Z HWRF is quite a bit deeper than the previous run. It shows a 978 mb center in the Yucatan channel 12Z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 WHEN? You must be confused. Although global models won't pinpoint the exact lowest pressure of a tropical cyclone in terms of forecasting, they do the most excellent job at giving a gauge for intensification. As far as true, pure intensity, that certainly requires some embellishment on the part of the forecaster when interpreting the global models' output... but to say that these models are useless for tropical cyclone intensity is the complete opposite of sane judgment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 12Z Euro output even more hostile than the 12Z GFS across the Atlantic... weakens Ernesto in the central Caribbean and slams it into central America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 How can a model predict the intensity correctly when it can't initialize it anywhere near correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Does anyone think 91l could cause more of a weakness for Ernesto and send it towards the northern gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 How can a model predict the intensity correctly when it can't initialize it anywhere near correctly? I mean, seriously, do you even look at the global model output? It's obvious to anyone who regularly looks at them that both the GFS and Euro have skill at forecasting intensity trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 How can a model predict the intensity correctly when it can't initialize it anywhere near correctly? Have you ever been involved in the observation and forecasting of tropical cyclones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 How can a model predict the intensity correctly when it can't initialize it anywhere near correctly? I don't think anyone is saying that it will project the absolute intensity accurately, what we are saying is that you can gauge the trends from the global models. If the model starts off with a well defined low and then completely craps the system out in three days, that is not typically a sign that solid strengthening is going to occur. Having said that, for small systems I certainly think the global models can and do miss the boat, e.g., as I remember they blew chunks on Dean (although that was 5 years ago and certainly the models have improved since then). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Have you ever been involved in the observation and forecasting of tropical cyclones? I follow it myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 I mean, seriously, do you even look at the global model output? It's obvious to anyone who regularly looks at them that both the GFS and Euro have skill at forecasting intensity trends. All the time. The ECMWF is not too bad, but the GFS (as far as intensity goes) is the ABSOLUTE worst thing you can use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 All the time. The ECMWF is not too bad, but the GFS (as far as intensity goes) is the ABSOLUTE worst thing you can use. You are bad at forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 I don't think anyone is saying that it will project the absolute intensity accurately, what we are saying is that you can gauge the trends from the global models. If the model starts off with a well defined low and then completely craps the system out in three days, that is not typically a sign that solid strengthening is going to occur. Having said that, for small systems I certainly think the global models can and do miss the boat, e.g., as I remember they blew chunks on Dean (although that was 5 years ago and certainly the models have improved since then). You could probably gauge trends, but how many times do you see the a cat 2 hurricane out there and the GFS models it as a weak wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 You could probably gauge trends, but how many times do you see the a cat 2 hurricane out there and the GFS models it as a weak wave? Never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 You are bad at forecasting. I will outforecast you any day, time, and place. Name the event and I'll do it, it won't even be close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Never. ALMOST always is the correct answer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 I will outforecast you any day, time, and place. Name the event and I'll do it, it won't even be close! Done, I'll pick the time and place as a neutral party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 I will outforecast you any day, time, and place. Name the event and I'll do it, it won't even be close! ALMOST always is the correct answer! LOL. Ok dude. Whatever. Believe what you want, even if every other meteorologist here tells you you're wrong. Continue to be the laughingstock of the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Met fight!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 ALMOST always is the correct answer! Sorry, I have to agree with am19psu. If you had asked me this 25 years ago, maybe I would agree with you, but in the last 5-10 years? No way. Please show me all of these examples where the GFS has only a weak wave when there is a category 2 hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Besides the GFS itself, does anyone know how the upgrade would impact the SHIPS guidance? SHIPS is based on standard multiple regression techniques. The predictors for SHIPS include climatology and persistence, atmospheric environmental parameters (e.g., vertical wind shear, stability, etc.), and oceanic input such as sea surface temperature (SST) and upper-oceanic heat content. Many of the predictors are obtained from the GFS and are averaged over the entire forecast period. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 ~sigh~... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 I mean, seriously, do you even look at the global model output? It's obvious to anyone who regularly looks at them that both the GFS and Euro have skill at forecasting intensity trends. Yeah, 850mb vorticity (but other stuff can help) is a good indicator of strength if you know GFS' biases and limitations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Besides the GFS itself, does anyone know how the upgrade would impact the SHIPS guidance? SHIPS is based on standard multiple regression techniques. The predictors for SHIPS include climatology and persistence, atmospheric environmental parameters (e.g., vertical wind shear, stability, etc.), and oceanic input such as sea surface temperature (SST) and upper-oceanic heat content. Many of the predictors are obtained from the GFS and are averaged over the entire forecast period. http://www.nhc.noaa....elsummary.shtml Does the SHIPS guidance use mid-lvl shear as a predictor? I feel as if those situations are when globals most strongly outperform the statistical intensity guidance. Also, would be nice to see some larger-scale predictors like the CCKW stuff, though I acknowledge the science there is still young. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Does the SHIPS guidance use mid-lvl shear as a predictor? I feel as if those situations are when globals most strongly outperform the statistical intensity guidance. Also, would be nice to see some larger-scale predictors like the CCKW stuff, though I acknowledge the science there is still in a young phase. If Dtk checks in, I am sure that he will know the answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Does anyone think that the GFS upgrade may be impacting the intensity guidance? How so? If anything, we have some evidence that the DA upgrade in May of this year yielded (marginally) improved intensity forecasts. This is likely a secondary impact through the improved initialization of the storm environment (and not necessary the storm itself), which leads to improved track guidance, which then subsequently leads to improved intensity guidance (they are not independent, obviously). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 I don't think anyone is saying that it will project the absolute intensity accurately, what we are saying is that you can gauge the trends from the global models. If the model starts off with a well defined low and then completely craps the system out in three days, that is not typically a sign that solid strengthening is going to occur. Having said that, for small systems I certainly think the global models can and do miss the boat, e.g., as I remember they blew chunks on Dean (although that was 5 years ago and certainly the models have improved since then). You might be thinking of Felix which was relatively small and the global model did not have a great handle on the storm. Dean was excpetionally well modeled from inception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 You might be thinking of Felix which was relatively small and the global model did not have a great handle on the storm. Dean was excpetionally well modeled from inception. Agreed. The modeling for Dean more than a week out was spectacular. In Oz, Cyclone Yasi was similarly well-modeled by the Euro way, way in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 How so? If anything, we have some evidence that the DA upgrade in May of this year yielded (marginally) improved intensity forecasts. This is likely a secondary impact through the improved initialization of the storm environment (and not necessary the storm itself), which leads to improved track guidance, which then subsequently leads to improved intensity guidance (they are not independent, obviously). I think he was questioning how the forecasts of the empirical parameters in the new GFS have changed the SHIPS (if at all). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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