Superstorm93 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Recon should be heading in soon. Sent from my 4G 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Recon is live, they will reach the storm within the next hour. I think they will find 55-60 kt winds and a better defined LLC which corresponds with the improved IR and microwave imagery. The next 24 hours is crucial for Ernesto's survival. My call is that the LLC will get displaced from the convection for a while before another gradual strengthening. Either that, or he gets his acts together and becomes a hurricane earlier than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Recon is up and I've synced the Barbados radar with google earth so I get radar overlayed with satellite and Recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 It looks like the low-level circulation has accelerated somewhat. While it does have a decent thunderstorm cluster nearby, its certainly moving faster than it was most of yesterday, and this could be the result of the accelerating low level flow expected over the Eastern Caribbean. We'll see what recon finds in a moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 It looks like the low-level circulation has accelerated somewhat. While it does have a decent thunderstorm cluster nearby, its certainly moving faster than it was most of yesterday, and this could be the result of the accelerating low level flow expected over the Eastern Caribbean. We'll see what recon finds in a moment. Agreed, if you look at satellite it looks like the most likely place for a COC would be just E of Barbados but the Radar out of Barbados says its due north of the island. Waiting for recon to sort this out... Edit: Here is the link to the radar website, and if you play the loop this "center" is moving WSW with the mean flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 Agreed, if you look at satellite it looks like the most likely place for a COC would be just E of Barbados but the Radar out of Barbados says its due north of the island. Waiting for recon to sort this out... Edit: Here is the link to the radar website, and if you play the loop this "center" is moving WSW with the mean flow. Thanks for the link... if the radar loop is correct, Ernesto is rapidly becoming disorganized (even more so than earlier). Recon hasn't reported back for most than 30 minutes now, so we might be looking at some radio transmitter issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Barbados Radar long-term radar loop: http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animator.php?134 French Antilles long-term radar loop: http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animator.php?133 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Recon is back, missed a HDOB dump. From Radar and recon winds they missed the center to the south, but a nearly 180° wind shift means that the runaway spiral is the LLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 Looks like recon just went south of the center... it certainly matches the small size identified on radar. At this point, I think there is a very real possibility this is outrunning the mid-level circulation at this point, and there is a risk for degeneration tomorrow if it doesn't slow down soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 The "fix" dropsonde measured west winds of 20 mph at the surface with a pressure 1005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 05:54Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302) Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012 Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 2 Observation Number: 03 A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 5:40:30Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°40'N 59°40'W (13.6667N 59.6667W) B. Center Fix Location: 40 miles (64 km) to the N (355°) from Bridgetown, Barbados. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,464m (4,803ft) at 850mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 28kts (~ 32.2mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WNW (301°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 80° at 45kts (From the E at ~ 51.8mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 38 nautical miles (44 statute miles) to the NW/NNW (326°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,593m (5,226ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,544m (5,066ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 850mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph) in the northwest quadrant at 5:28:00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 The Barbados radar looks cool, but Lord, I hope it's not becoming vertically skewed. Grrrrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sugaree Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 ah just in time... convection blossoms closer to the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 If anyone is curious about the 00z EURO it doesn't show much. I see a broad area of low pressure hitting the northern Yucatan at day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 If anyone is curious about the 00z EURO it doesn't show much. I see a broad area of low pressure hitting the northern Yucatan at day 5. There is a very real possibility that Ernesto will degenerate over the next few days. The ECMWF has been showing this senario off and on. Given the very recent radar trends, that might not be a bad call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 0z GFS ensembles are sexy and provocative. That'll bring people back from the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 0z GFS ensembles are sexy and provocative. That'll bring people back from the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 Some of my early morning thoughts... most of these were made before looking at radar this morning, so they might be slightly more optimistic than my thinking is currently http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2012/08/03/tropical-storm-ernesto-forms-intensity-uncertain/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 0z GFS ensembles are sexy and provocative. That'll bring people back from the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Nice Gulf consensus there...assuming it does survive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 The 5 am EDT package is out. The cyclone's weakened a tad, but they forecast restrengthening, and they're still showing a 75-kt cyclone approaching the Yucatan Wednesday morning. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 ERNESTO HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. APART FROM A COUPLE OF BRIEF CONVECTIVE BURSTS...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND SHRUNK AROUND THE CENTER OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT WINDS ARE NOT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE VERY EFFECTIVELY...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LACKLUSTER CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT...AND THAT COULD BE SOMEWHAT GENEROUS GIVEN THAT THE HIGHEST 850-MB WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE AROUND 45 KT. THE RAPID WESTWARD MOTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS RESULTING IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KT AS ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL. GIVEN THIS...AND THE SOMEWHAT DRY AIR SEEN IN UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND THAT TIME...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS THE SHEAR DECREASES WHILE ERNESTO MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES OF THE CYCLONE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AND THE IV15 CONSENSUS THAT INCLUDES THE HFIP GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/21...AS ERNESTO IS BEING STEERED RAPIDLY WESTWARD BY THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE RIDGE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOWER WEST-NORTHWARD MOTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING WESTWARD AND THE STRONGER GFDL TURNING ERNESTO MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE TVCA/TV15 MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND THE DEPENDENCE OF THE TRACK ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE...CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD IS LOWER THAN USUAL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 13.5N 60.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 14.0N 63.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 14.4N 66.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 14.9N 69.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 15.6N 72.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 17.0N 78.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 18.5N 82.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 20.5N 86.0W 75 KT 85 MPH Nothing new.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 NHC holds serve with the track and forecast intensity. And once again states that around day 3 conditions will be more favorable for steady strengthening into a hurricane. Pretty interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 TLPL 31G46kts right now. Squall moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 TLPL 31G46kts right now. Squall moving through. Not bad for a weak TS. Cool-- the heart is beating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Pretty much everything you need to know about the next 48 hours is right here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Pretty much everything you need to know about the next 48 hours is right here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Not much to say that's not already said, so I will concentrate in the good...radar from Barbados and Guadaloupe are showing a little better structure now(time sensitive) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Ugh. satellite looks pretty bad. i have some doubts any of it will even survive to regenerate later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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