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Tropical Depression Ernesto - 35 mph - 1004 mb - W 14 mph


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Recon is live, they will reach the storm within the next hour. I think they will find 55-60 kt winds and a better defined LLC which corresponds with the improved IR and microwave imagery. The next 24 hours is crucial for Ernesto's survival. My call is that the LLC will get displaced from the convection for a while before another gradual strengthening. Either that, or he gets his acts together and becomes a hurricane earlier than expected.

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It looks like the low-level circulation has accelerated somewhat. While it does have a decent thunderstorm cluster nearby, its certainly moving faster than it was most of yesterday, and this could be the result of the accelerating low level flow expected over the Eastern Caribbean. We'll see what recon finds in a moment.

201208030515-Mosaique.gif

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It looks like the low-level circulation has accelerated somewhat. While it does have a decent thunderstorm cluster nearby, its certainly moving faster than it was most of yesterday, and this could be the result of the accelerating low level flow expected over the Eastern Caribbean. We'll see what recon finds in a moment.

Agreed, if you look at satellite it looks like the most likely place for a COC would be just E of Barbados but the Radar out of Barbados says its due north of the island. Waiting for recon to sort this out...

Edit: Here is the link to the radar website, and if you play the loop this "center" is moving WSW with the mean flow.

201208030519.png

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Agreed, if you look at satellite it looks like the most likely place for a COC would be just E of Barbados but the Radar out of Barbados says its due north of the island. Waiting for recon to sort this out...

Edit: Here is the link to the radar website, and if you play the loop this "center" is moving WSW with the mean flow.

Thanks for the link... if the radar loop is correct, Ernesto is rapidly becoming disorganized (even more so than earlier). Recon hasn't reported back for most than 30 minutes now, so we might be looking at some radio transmitter issues.

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Looks like recon just went south of the center... it certainly matches the small size identified on radar. At this point, I think there is a very real possibility this is outrunning the mid-level circulation at this point, and there is a risk for degeneration tomorrow if it doesn't slow down soon.

29w1vcw.png

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 05:54Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)

Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012

Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 2

Observation Number: 03

A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 5:40:30Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°40'N 59°40'W (13.6667N 59.6667W)

B. Center Fix Location: 40 miles (64 km) to the N (355°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,464m (4,803ft) at 850mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 28kts (~ 32.2mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WNW (301°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 80° at 45kts (From the E at ~ 51.8mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 38 nautical miles (44 statute miles) to the NW/NNW (326°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,593m (5,226ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,544m (5,066ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 850mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph) in the northwest quadrant at 5:28:00Z

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If anyone is curious about the 00z EURO it doesn't show much. I see a broad area of low pressure hitting the northern Yucatan at day 5.

There is a very real possibility that Ernesto will degenerate over the next few days. The ECMWF has been showing this senario off and on. Given the very recent radar trends, that might not be a bad call right now.

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ERNESTO HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.

APART FROM A COUPLE OF BRIEF CONVECTIVE BURSTS...CLOUD TOPS HAVE

WARMED AND SHRUNK AROUND THE CENTER OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...DATA

FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT

WINDS ARE NOT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE VERY EFFECTIVELY...WHICH

IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LACKLUSTER CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT...AND THAT COULD BE SOMEWHAT GENEROUS

GIVEN THAT THE HIGHEST 850-MB WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE AROUND

45 KT.

THE RAPID WESTWARD MOTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS RESULTING IN

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KT AS ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS AND THE

SHIPS MODEL. GIVEN THIS...AND THE SOMEWHAT DRY AIR SEEN IN UPSTREAM

SOUNDINGS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS

EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND THAT TIME...CONDITIONS

APPEAR TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS THE SHEAR

DECREASES WHILE ERNESTO MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. HOWEVER...GIVEN

THE CURRENT STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES OF THE CYCLONE AND THE POTENTIAL

FOR LAND INTERACTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN

CONSERVATIVE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS

ONE...AND IS BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AND

THE IV15 CONSENSUS THAT INCLUDES THE HFIP GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/21...AS ERNESTO IS BEING STEERED

RAPIDLY WESTWARD BY THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THIS

RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD FOR THE

NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED WESTWARD

MOTION OF THE CYCLONE. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE MODELS SHOW A

WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE RIDGE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES

INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOWER

WEST-NORTHWARD MOTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO

BE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...WITH

THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING WESTWARD AND THE STRONGER

GFDL TURNING ERNESTO MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. DUE TO THE INITIAL

MOTION...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE NHC FORECAST IS

LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF

THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE TVCA/TV15 MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND THE DEPENDENCE OF THE TRACK ON THE

FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE...CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST

LATE IN THE PERIOD IS LOWER THAN USUAL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 13.5N 60.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 03/1800Z 14.0N 63.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

24H 04/0600Z 14.4N 66.7W 50 KT 60 MPH

36H 04/1800Z 14.9N 69.7W 55 KT 65 MPH

48H 05/0600Z 15.6N 72.8W 60 KT 70 MPH

72H 06/0600Z 17.0N 78.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

96H 07/0600Z 18.5N 82.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

120H 08/0600Z 20.5N 86.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

Nothing new..

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