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Tropical Depression Ernesto - 35 mph - 1004 mb - W 14 mph


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Lets see what happens over the next 12-18 hours. This was Karl's track while it was in the same location. If Ernesto can hold together as well as Karl did (unlikely) more intensification is possible in the Gulf of Mexico.

Karl (2010)

Ernesto (2012)

A lot of things had to come together just perfectly for Karl to re-intensify like that post-landfall. After all, Karl was the only recorded major in the BoC ever! I have a feeling the slightly larger circulation associated with Ernesto may make it more difficult to re-intensify as rapidly. But given the incredibly favorable UL pattern that has developed right over Ernesto plus very warm SSTs in the BoC, I wouldn't rule anything out!

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A lot of things had to come together just perfectly for Karl to re-intensify like that post-landfall. After all, Karl was the only recorded major in the BoC ever! I have a feeling the slightly larger circulation associated with Ernesto may make it more difficult to re-intensify as rapidly. But given the incredibly favorable UL pattern that has developed right over Ernesto plus very warm SSTs in the BoC, I wouldn't rule anything out!

Well the first step is that Ernesto needs to maintain its inner core. If that collapses, then I wouldn't expect anything more than modest intensification (like back to minimal hurricane intensity per the NHC forecast).

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So far so good. The eye is still almost as pronounced as when it made landfall a few hours ago.

the IR has a much more defined eye now then during landfall. I think Ernesto will weaken to a 70 mph tropical storm before udergoing mild RI in the BOC up to a strong cat 2

rb0.jpg

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BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012

700 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

...ERNESTO WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER MEXICO...BUT HEAVY RAINS

CONTINUE...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.8N 89.8W

ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

post-32-0-40086700-1344428850_thumb.gif

post-32-0-58752500-1344428684_thumb.gif

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Good news and bad news.

The good news, even as cloud tops warm, I can still identify (what I am pretty sure is) the eye on IR imagery. The Yucatan has not badly dsrupted the circulation.

The bad news, it has started to slip latitude, and if it doesn't stop, it will spend little time over open water in the BoC. I have the lat-long lines turned on on the floater loop. It hasn't slipped much in latitude, but it is slipping.

post-138-0-87433600-1344429207_thumb.jpg

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Good day,

The bad news, it has started to slip latitude, and if it doesn't stop, it will spend little time over open water in the BoC. I have the lat-long lines turned on on the floater loop. It hasn't slipped much in latitude, but it is slipping.

It has DEFINITELY lost lattitude (not gained it). It's a south of due west motion. I touched that subject while sending congrats to Josh M on the the "chase thread" for Ernesto.

For another landfall "rivaling 2010's Karl" ... It's appearing less likely as long as the WSW (or S by West) motion continues.

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Good day,

It has DEFINITELY lost lattitude (not gained it). It's a south of due west motion. I touched that subject while sending congrats to Josh M on the the "chase thread" for Ernesto.

For another landfall "rivaling 2010's Karl" ... It's appearing less likely as long as the WSW (or S by West) motion continues.

I think it was pretty clear what I meant by slipping latitude.

But it is at the point now, I'm not sure the center will ever completely re-emerge in the BoC, and it will have a difficult time becoming a hurricane again.

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Looking less and less likely that Ernesto will pull a Karl. Ernesto will probably never get much if at all above 19N again, which gives the storm little time over water and keeps frictional convergence and land interaction in play for the southern rainbands (possibly even eyewall) even while the center is over water. So, unfortunately, the first landfall will very likely remain the strongest point in Ernesto's life.

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Looking less and less likely that Ernesto will pull a Karl. Ernesto will probably never get much if at all above 19N again, which gives the storm little time over water and keeps frictional convergence and land interaction in play for the southern rainbands (possibly even eyewall) even while the center is over water. So, unfortunately, the first landfall will very likely remain the strongest point in Ernesto's life.

Yep... there is still some question if Ernesto will ever emerge into the GOM. So far, not looking very promising based on the radar. With convection dominating the southern quadrant, the center will likely be pulled S of due west.

sb2bdw.gif

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994mb extra with 41 knots winds. This little vortex has maintained across the Yucatan.

Convection is redeveloping over the center in a curved band that is rotating northward around Leguna de Terminos. The center has responded by drifting a little further north. Given the continued outstanding outflow and improving radar presentation, a return to hurricane intensity is certainly possible *if* it can stay over water.

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86kt flight level winds, 59kt SFMR not in convection

033430 1902N 09202W 8429 01467 9975 +170 +170 137048 049 042 004 01
033500 1904N 09201W 8430 01468 9983 +170 +170 137051 051 050 008 01
033530 1905N 09200W 8431 01476 //// +147 //// 137059 067 055 014 01
033600 1907N 09159W 8426 01474 //// +141 //// 129074 083 056 022 01
033630 1908N 09158W 8433 01468 //// +136 //// 132084 086 055 012 01
033700 1910N 09157W 8440 01462 //// +147 //// 136079 083 058 009 01
033730 1911N 09157W 8429 01479 9998 +160 +160 139081 084 059 005 01
033800 1913N 09156W 8433 01481 0002 +160 +160 138080 081 059 006 01

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Huh...

86 knot flight-level winds with 59 knot surface winds.

It just means the FL winds are not quite reaching the same % they normally due since the circulation is in the process of reconsolidating.

With that said, there is no doubt Ernesto is wasting no time re-intensifying. Lets see if it can gain some latitude.

2vcjgox.gif

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Although it appears to be improving on Sat, the small core appears to have been absorbed into a larger core. Not enough room for a big storm this close to the coast so reintensification probably won't happen. The windspeed reduction reminds me of Irene. The flow of the outer radius is probably jammed by the mountains at the low levels.

8.gif

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70 mph in the NE Quad measured by sonde!

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1002mb (Surface) 100° (from the E) 61 knots (70 mph)
974mb 100° (from the E) 74 knots (85 mph)
962mb 105° (from the ESE) 72 knots (83 mph)
953mb 100° (from the E) 77 knots (89 mph)
939mb 105° (from the ESE) 76 knots (87 mph)
924mb 115° (from the ESE) 82 knots (94 mph)
854mb 130° (from the SE) 78 knots (90 mph)
843mb 130° (from the SE) 77 knots (89 mph)

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70 mph in the NE Quad measured by sonde!

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1002mb (Surface) 100° (from the E) 61 knots (70 mph)
974mb 100° (from the E) 74 knots (85 mph)
962mb 105° (from the ESE) 72 knots (83 mph)
953mb 100° (from the E) 77 knots (89 mph)
939mb 105° (from the ESE) 76 knots (87 mph)
924mb 115° (from the ESE) 82 knots (94 mph)
854mb 130° (from the SE) 78 knots (90 mph)
843mb 130° (from the SE) 77 knots (89 mph)

Wow.

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012

700 AM CDT THU AUG 09 2012

...ERNESTO ABOUT TO CROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR COATZACOALCOS...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.3N 94.0W

ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

post-32-0-41310000-1344517889_thumb.jpg

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