turtlehurricane Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 This makes no sense. Outflow is allowed to... and usually does... curve. It does not usually go in straight lines. Yes the ULL is curving the outflow to the north, but as long as the outflow is moving away from the cyclone, this is okay, especially if the outflow is accelerated as ULLs that are in this sort of position with respect to a tropical cyclone usually do. The ULL doesn't simply "curve" the outflow, huge amounts of energy are being lost as the outflow is forced to turn and slow down. It's not ok as long as outflow is moving outwards, it's all about the relative rates of outward flow. If outflow is initially unimpeded and then slows down/forced to turn, that energy will be deducted from the optimal energy the hurricane could attain. In reality this translates to less upward motion and relative subsidence to before. The upper low to the east is a great example of an ULL that is actually helping since the outflow is tying right into the jet associated with the upper low, so it gains energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 The point is what you said was virtually false on all fronts. It was?? Maybe you just misinterpreted it?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 It was?? Maybe you just misinterpreted it?? His first point, not the one I just replied to. I deleted that because of it. Regardless, this is pretty pointless at this juncture, as Srain kindly pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Good thing recon was cancelled. The NHC forecast was a landfall at 75-80 mph. I'm sure there was not much enthusiasm for seeing what recon might find. Now they can bump the winds up a token 5mph to 85 and call it day based on a sat estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Ernesto looks to be accelerating to the WSW. Should landfall at or before 03Z at this rate. Outflow is more than fine and the -west- ULL-cyclone-ULL -east- pattern is one I have observed with many intense hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 It's a shame recon can't get there. The eye on radar has contracted significantly over the past couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 It's a shame recon can't get there. The eye on radar has contracted significantly over the past couple hours. That's OK....Josh will be there!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 It's a shame recon can't get there. The eye on radar has contracted significantly over the past couple hours. Yeah, looking at the latest loop, this thing might be taking off a bit. The good news for Josh (if he can get there, and bad news for that part of the coast) is that this thing will likely be at about peak intensity at landfall, especially with the acceleration. Given what might be the presence of a very early secondary eyewall formation, I don't know if another 3h over water would do it all that much good. Right now, though, the eyewall/eye structure on radar is frankly very impressive, and it would be of no surprise to me if this thing is at least cat-2 intensity at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 That's OK....Josh will be there!! His pressure readings may actually prove somewhat vital in at least getting a ballpark estimate of landfall intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 That's OK....Josh will be there!! Yeah, I'm hoping he can get some nice wind measurements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Radar shows Ernesto is taking an Andrew-esque last minute dive south. Looks like it'll make landfall in a huge swamp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 That huge convective blast will bring the center south a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Good thing recon was cancelled. The NHC forecast was a landfall at 75-80 mph. I'm sure there was not much enthusiasm for seeing what recon might find. Now they can bump the winds up a token 5mph to 85 and call it day based on a sat estimates. right on que...there's your token 5mph bump from NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 right on que...there's your token 5mph bump from NHC. Pretty strong indications that this will be stronger than a Cat 1 at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Holy sh^t guys....all I was doing was pointing out what the NHC mentioned and you guys go all nuts on turtle! There was dry air at the mid levels and some of that certainly could have been due to the descension of air between the outflows of the core and of the monstrous band that existed in the NW quadrant YESTERDAY. Also a possible origin of any "relatively" dry air YESTERDAY may have been entrained days earlier....it's not like this system had been super organized to efficiently spit out parcels in an expediant fashion. Today looks much better wrt dry air. Good post. I think we can admit we all saw the same satellite loops yesterday. And we don't need to respond to Turtle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 right on que...there's your token 5mph bump from NHC. Without recon and wanting to try to get things as accurate as possible this close to land, they are really in a tough situation. Raw T number is up to 4.3 at 2245Z, which would be about 85 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Josh should be getting hammered soon. Eye is really trying to pop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Where the hell is recon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 8, 2012 Author Share Posted August 8, 2012 Costa Maya - wind/pressure http://www.windfinde...hual_costa_maya Nice find... keeping an eye on the obs... pressure down to 996 hPa.. winds not yet TS force. This is certainly a tightly wound system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 I think this southerly trend may be due to coastal interaction. Air north of the center is going from ocean to land so it's converging at the coast, air south of the center is going from land to ocean so it's diverging at the coast. So the more of its circulation that interacts with the coastline the more it's pushed south, since low pressure forms to the south and high pressure to the north. Or it could be something else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Picked up on a bunch of strokes on Banco Chinchorro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Nice find... keeping an eye on the obs... pressure down to 996 hPa.. winds not yet TS force. This is certainly a tightly wound system. This reminds me of hurricane Katrina when it hit Miami, we only got some 30-50 mph gusts until the actual eyewall hit, and then suddenly it was hurricane force. Had a similar radar presentation too, and was also a category 1 hurricane intensifying right at the coast. It hasn't had enough time for its wind field to spread out I'm guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 8, 2012 Author Share Posted August 8, 2012 I think this southerly trend may be due to coastal interaction. Air north of the center is going from ocean to land so it's converging at the coast, air south of the center is going from land to ocean so it's diverging at the coast. So the more of its circulation that interacts with the coastline the more it's pushed south, since low pressure forms to the south and high pressure to the north. Or it could be something else Turtle you might have it backwards. Surface convergence occurring to the north induces lift which can lower the pressure. Surface divergence occurring to the south will result in sinking air which higher pressure is produced. I don't think land is having a large impact on the motion of Ernesto since the terrain nearby is relatively flat. In cases where the steering flow is weak though, it would obviously have a larger impact (Isidore 2002). However, the steering flow has actually strengthened a bit today, so I don't think thats the culprit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Turtle you might have it backwards. Surface convergence occurring to the north induces lift which can lower the pressure. Surface divergence occurring to the south will result in sinking air which higher pressure is produced. I don't think land is having a large impact on the motion of Ernesto since the terrain nearby is relatively flat. In cases where the steering flow is weak though, it would obviously have a larger impact (Isidore 2002). However, the steering flow has actually strengthened a bit today, so I don't think thats the culprit. Yeah you're right. I'm done doing dynamics for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Costa Maya down to 991 hpa. Winds 24kt/G41. According to their weather station the wind is blowing offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 NHC holds... Cat 1 at 11 summary of 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...information ----------------------------------------------- location...18.7n 87.7w about 40 mi...65 km ENE of Chetumal Mexico about 200 mi...325 km ESE of Campeche Mexico maximum sustained winds...85 mph...140 km/h present movement...W or 270 degrees at 15 mph...24 km/h minimum central pressure...980 mb...28.94 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 NHC holds... Cat 1 at 11 summary of 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...information ----------------------------------------------- location...18.7n 87.7w about 40 mi...65 km ENE of Chetumal Mexico about 200 mi...325 km ESE of Campeche Mexico maximum sustained winds...85 mph...140 km/h present movement...W or 270 degrees at 15 mph...24 km/h minimum central pressure...980 mb...28.94 inches I could argue but wont say much, im happy with what i see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 HURRICANE ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012 TECHNICAL ISSUES PREVENTED A RECON FLIGHT FROM INVESTIGATING ERNESTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IMAGERY FROM THE BELIZE RADAR INDICATE THE HURRICANE HAD A WELL-DEFINED 15-NMI DIAMETER EYE EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KT BASED ON AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. RADAR FIXES OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATE ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD...OR 270/13 KT. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN BANCO CHINCHORRO ISLANDS OF MEXICO...AND WILL MOVING ONSHORE THE SOUTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN SHORTLY. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON ERNESTO MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN YUCATAN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS EXPECTED TO TURN ERNESTO TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY 48 HOURS AS IT NEARS MAINLAND MEXICO. AFTER THE SECOND LANDFALL OCCURS... ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF INTERIOR MEXICO BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS. LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. ERNESTO SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT PASSES OVER YUCATAN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO TIGHTEN UP THE CIRCULATION BEFORE IT EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 18-24 HOURS. THIS APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE DRIVING MECHANISMS IN THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS... WHICH MAKE ERNESTO A HURRICANE AGAIN BY 48 HOURS WHEN IT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER ERNESTO. RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE SECOND LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO DUE TO VERY HIGH TERRAIN. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE LGEM...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS. 34-KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON WIND REPORTS FROM THE LAST RECON FLIGHT AND NOAA BUOY 42056. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 18.7N 87.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER BANCO CHINCHORRO 12H 08/1200Z 19.1N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND YUCATAN 24H 09/0000Z 19.4N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 09/1200Z 19.4N 94.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 19.2N 95.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 18.7N 98.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND 96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Unless NHC reanalyzes Ernesto, looks like he will go down as a Cat 1 cane as landfall will happen within the next few hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Landfall occuring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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