phil882 Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 Is recon in the air? I see that there were a couple sets of High Density Observations at the airport about an hour ago, but nothing since then. If they aren't in the air by this point, they won't get to the center before landfall... We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 The outflow is dynamic. Had this been two days ago, Ernesto could've been an extreme hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Is recon in the air? I see that there were a couple sets of High Density Observations at the airport about an hour ago, but nothing since then. The center fix is set for 8pm. Not sure if they'll make it or not. Sent from my 4G 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 I think it's more likely dry air associated with the outflow itself sinking back into the storm, since it's been fairly restricted. Calling that dry air entrainment is fine in my opinion. There have and continue to be swaths of dry air apparent on water vapor systematically throughout Ernesto, and all the outflow to the west and north is being blocked. I really hope you aren't being serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Wow...not sure what to say... There is no point to one liners like this and the previous Phil882 post. I can help y'all understand my viewpoint if you're confused, and be proven wrong if I am, but a one liner that implies I must be stupid ruins the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 There is no point to one liners like this and the previous Phil882 post. I can help y'all understand my viewpoint if you're confused, and be proven wrong if I am, but a one liner that implies I must be stupid ruins the discussion. When all other mets posting disagree with you, you should know you're wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 I think it's more likely dry air associated with the outflow itself sinking back into the storm, since it's been fairly restricted. Calling that dry air entrainment is fine in my opinion. There have and continue to be swaths of dry air apparent on water vapor systematically throughout Ernesto, and all the outflow to the west and north is being blocked. Yeah I am not seeing any of this occurring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Is everyone misunderstanding my definition of outflow restriction? Yes it does flow outwards over the storm in all quadrants, but is being blocked near the storm edge to the west and north, good jet to the east and somewhat good to the south. Even though the outflow is only partially blocked it still converges in spots and sinks.... compressionally warming and drying as it descends. Subsidence is particularly enhanced where there is also a downward branch of a rainband circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 When all other mets posting disagree with you, you should know you're wrong. About freaking what? This thread is like a bad joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 There is no point to one liners like this and the previous Phil882 post. I can help y'all understand my viewpoint if you're confused, and be proven wrong if I am, but a one liner that implies I must be stupid ruins the discussion. I'm not trying to be mean, but I've already tried to ask you to explain your reasoning before (last night). Water vapor is not always a useful tool to depict mid-level dry air. Depending on what wavelength you are looking at, its primarily geared towards the upper tropsphere water vapor. In a case where you have deep expansive outflow from a TC, you won't be able to see the dry air occurring in a layer underneath because WV will only show the moister air associated with the expanding cirrus canopy of the TC. I prefer to look at total precipitable water because it is primarily updated by microwave imagers which do have the ability to investigate the water vapor content below this cirrus canopy. In many cases its easy to see dry air intrusion looking at microwave imagery. In my opinion there has not been any major dry air intrusion since Sunday (when the storm was completely exposed south of Jamaica). Some may argue that there was a dry air intrusion yesterday when the convection weakened over the center. However, as if often the case, developing TCs can't maintain their convective composure over long periods of time because its competing with other developing MCSs that are firing around the circulation. CUmet had perfectly reasonable explanations for why the convection weakened, citing the transport of lower Theta-E air into the boundary layer through downdrafts outside of the inner core, as well as Jason Dunion's work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 Is everyone misunderstanding my definition of outflow restriction? Yes it does flow outwards over the storm in all quadrants, but is being blocked near the storm edge to the west and north, good jet to the east and somewhat good to the south. Even though the outflow is only partially blocked it still converges in spots and sinks.... compressionally warming and drying as it descends. Subsidence is particularly enhanced where there is also a downward branch of a rainband circulation. Can you show me on this image where the outflow is being restricted. All I see are two outflow channels... one into the Gulf of Mexico, and another into the Caribbean Sea. This is a textbook outflow pattern of an intensifying tropical cyclone. Also the NHC has noted the expansive outflow on several occasions today: 5pm ERNESTO HAS NOW BECOME A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DISTINCT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE CIRCULATION...AND WELL-DEFINED CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW. 11am CIRRUS MOTIONS SHOW A FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Can you show me on this image where the outflow is being restricted. All I see are two outflow channels... one into the Gulf of Mexico, and another into the Caribbean Sea. This is a textbook outflow pattern of an intensifying tropical cyclone. Also the NHC has noted the expansive outflow on several occasions today: 5pm ERNESTO HAS NOW BECOME A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DISTINCT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE CIRCULATION...AND WELL-DEFINED CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW. 11am CIRRUS MOTIONS SHOW A FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE STORM. This is probably the best the outflow has been all storm, I see no restrictions at all in these images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 I'm not trying to be mean, but I've already tried to ask you to explain your reasoning before (last night). Water vapor is not always a useful tool to depict mid-level dry air. Depending on what wavelength you are looking at, its primarily geared towards the upper tropsphere water vapor. In a case where you have deep expansive outflow from a TC, you won't be able to see the dry air occurring in a layer underneath because WV will only show the moister air associated with the expanding cirrus canopy of the TC. I prefer to look at total precipitable water because it is primarily updated by microwave imagers which do have the ability to investigate the water vapor content below this cirrus canopy. In many cases its easy to see dry air intrusion looking at microwave imagery. In my opinion there has not been any major dry air intrusion since Sunday (when the storm was completely exposed south of Jamaica). Some may argue that there was a dry air intrusion yesterday when the convection weakened over the center. However, as if often the case, developing TCs can't maintain their convective composure over long periods of time because its competing with other developing MCSs that are firing around the circulation. CUmet had perfectly reasonable explanations for why the convection weakened, citing the transport of lower Theta-E air into the boundary layer through downdrafts outside of the inner core, as well as Jason Dunion's work. Your points about water vapor vs. TPW are certainly true in cases like this, since even if you think a patch is dry air on water vapor you could just be seeing a cloud free spot in the cirrus shield. TPW does show areas of relatively dry air in Ernesto though, with about 10 mm less TPW than the wettest spots (60 mm of TPW is about the max). Unfortunately there's no vertical data since it's an integration, so you cant definitely say its due to precip variations only or from very dry air at certain levels in an overall moist column. I think some of it is indeed dry air subsiding from the partially blocked outflow, since Ernesto has been behaving like a storm with dry air problems. woops almost forgot this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Can you show me on this image where the outflow is being restricted. All I see are two outflow channels... one into the Gulf of Mexico, and another into the Caribbean Sea. This is a textbook outflow pattern of an intensifying tropical cyclone. Also the NHC has noted the expansive outflow on several occasions today: 5pm ERNESTO HAS NOW BECOME A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DISTINCT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE CIRCULATION...AND WELL-DEFINED CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW. 11am CIRRUS MOTIONS SHOW A FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE STORM. The main obstruction is the westerly flow south of the upper low, it's ramming directly into Ernesto's western outflow. That upper low/trough near the Bahamas is blocking some of the outflow and enhancing part of it greatly, so that's a wild card as far as effects go but probably a good thing for outflow ventilation. A very strong east-west asymmetry overall, which might be why subsidence from the outflow is actually a problem since alot of the western outflow must flow back east across the storm. http://mapmaker.aos..../g8wvflash.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Your points about water vapor vs. TPW are certainly true in cases like this, since even if you think a patch is dry air on water vapor you could just be seeing a cloud free spot in the cirrus shield. TPW does show areas of relatively dry air in Ernesto though, with about 10 mm less TPW than the wettest spots (60 mm of TPW is about the max). Unfortunately there's no vertical data since it's an integration, so you cant definitely say its due to precip variations only or from very dry air at certain levels in an overall moist column. I think it is indeed dry air subsiding from the partially blocked outflow, since Ernesto has been behaving like a storm with dry air problems. How exactly is Ernesto behaving like a storm with dry air problems at this moment? Ernesto has been intensifying, and the inner core continues to expand and get better organised on both satellite and the Belize radar. That is not what a TC with dry air issues does. Are you still looking at images of Ernesto from yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 Your points about water vapor vs. TPW are certainly true in cases like this, since even if you think a patch is dry air on water vapor you could just be seeing a cloud free spot in the cirrus shield. TPW does show areas of relatively dry air in Ernesto though, with about 10 mm less TPW than the wettest spots (60 mm of TPW is about the max). Unfortunately there's no vertical data since it's an integration, so you cant definitely say its due to precip variations only or from very dry air at certain levels in an overall moist column. I think it is indeed dry air subsiding from the partially blocked outflow, since Ernesto has been behaving like a storm with dry air problems. The problem with this argument though is that there is little to no restricted outflow within 1000 km of the cyclone. The upper level wind vector plot I posted above shows this. If there is no subsiding air anywhere close to the cyclone, how can this get into the inner core? This is a trivial argument to have when the storm is intensifying at this time with deep convective towers firing over the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 The main obstruction is the westerly flow south of the upper low, it's ramming directly into Ernesto's western outflow. That upper low/trough near the Bahamas is blocking some of the outflow and enhancing part of it greatly, so that's a wild card as far as effects go but probably a good thing for outflow ventilation. A very strong east-west asymmetry overall, which might be why subsidence from the outflow is actually a problem since alot of the western outflow must flow back east across the storm. http://mapmaker.aos..../g8wvflash.html Uhhh.... no? If anything, the ULL is enhancing Ernesto's outflow as it moves to the west and assists with ventilating Ernesto on the ULL's right side. Even then, the upper level anticyclone is way more dominant in terms of upper level factors for Ernesto than the ULL which barely registers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 How exactly is Ernesto behaving like a storm with dry air problems at this moment? Ernesto has been intensifying, and the inner core continues to expand and get better organised on both satellite and the Belize radar. That is not what a TC with dry air issues does. Are you still looking at images of Ernesto from yesterday? I'm talking about Ernesto over the past 24 hours since that's what the original discussion was about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Uhhh.... no? If anything, the ULL is enhancing Ernesto's outflow as it moves to the west and assists with ventilating Ernesto on the ULL's right side. Even then, the upper level anticyclone is way more dominant in terms of upper level factors for Ernesto than the ULL which barely registers. There are two upper lows, so uhhhh, no. And I mentioned the eastern upper low and said it was ventilating Ernesto, so you shouldn't have gotten confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 There are two upper lows, so uhhhh, no. And I mentioned the eastern upper low and said it was ventilating Ernesto, so you shouldn't have gotten confused. Please show me on this http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html where there are two ULLs on the western side of the cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 I'm not sure rehashing yesterday’s issues have a darn thing to do with what is going on at this given moment. Moving on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 The main obstruction is the westerly flow south of the upper low, it's ramming directly into Ernesto's western outflow. That upper low/trough near the Bahamas is blocking some of the outflow and enhancing part of it greatly, so that's a wild card as far as effects go but probably a good thing for outflow ventilation. A very strong east-west asymmetry overall, which might be why subsidence from the outflow is actually a problem since alot of the western outflow must flow back east across the storm. http://mapmaker.aos..../g8wvflash.html I see what area you are citing, but thats too far away to have a direct impact on the tropical cyclone. The upper level low is acting as an outflow channel which is ventilating the system which is providing a net positive effect. If the upper level circulation were to retrograde westward into the Gulf of Mexico then we might be talking about some issues, but that seems very unlikely at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 The problem with this argument though is that there is little to no restricted outflow within 1000 km of the cyclone. The upper level wind vector plot I posted above shows this. If there is no subsiding air anywhere close to the cyclone, how can this get into the inner core? This is a trivial argument to have when the storm is intensifying at this time with deep convective towers firing over the center. I think of the outflow as all being connected, if any of it gets even partially blocked convergence will occur upstream (i.e. radially inwards). You can simultaneously have vigorous convective towers in the inner core and outflow sinking from convergence near the inner core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 Back to radar since it looks like recon will not be making it in time.. I'd say landfall is looking like somewhere around 4-5z at this point. There has also been a distinctive west turn in the last few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Please show me on this http://www.ssd.noaa....l/flash-wv.html where there are two ULLs on the western side of the cyclone. Sorry you were talking about the right one. There is no way that the western ULL is enhancing Ernesto's outflow. The outflow wants to flow west but instead it's being forced to stop and flow north and south, you can basically see the axis of dilatation in the cirrus clouds. Even though it's still flowing away from the center to the north that doesn't mean the upper low is ventilating it, more like the outflow is pushing around the upper low at the expense of the hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Is everyone misunderstanding my definition of outflow restriction? Yes it does flow outwards over the storm in all quadrants, but is being blocked near the storm edge to the west and north, good jet to the east and somewhat good to the south. Even though the outflow is only partially blocked it still converges in spots and sinks.... compressionally warming and drying as it descends. Subsidence is particularly enhanced where there is also a downward branch of a rainband circulation. Well I said the exact oposite. The outflow is to unrestricted the strong rainbands are flying a part. Now that the surface low is deeper it is pulling in the rainbands the issue is less pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 At the risk of changing the subject....given it looks like no go on the recon, and ADT seems to be underscoring the storm when comparing the day's T numbers to recon, any mets care to take a stab at current or landfall intensity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Sorry you were talking about the right one. There is no way that the western ULL is enhancing Ernesto's outflow. The outflow wants to flow west but instead it's being forced to stop and flow north and south, you can basically see the axis of dilatation in the cirrus clouds. Even though it's still flowing away from the center to the north that doesn't mean the upper low is ventilating it, more like the outflow is pushing around the upper low at the expense of the hurricane. This makes no sense. Outflow is allowed to... and usually does... curve. It does not usually go in straight lines. Yes the ULL is curving the outflow to the north, but as long as the outflow is moving away from the cyclone, this is okay, especially if the outflow is accelerated as ULLs that are in this sort of position with respect to a tropical cyclone usually do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Holy sh^t guys....all I was doing was pointing out what the NHC mentioned and you guys go all nuts on turtle! There was dry air at the mid levels and some of that certainly could have been due to the descension of air between the outflows of the core and of the monstrous band that existed in the NW quadrant YESTERDAY. Also a possible origin of any "relatively" dry air YESTERDAY may have been entrained days earlier....it's not like this system had been super organized to efficiently spit out parcels in an expediant fashion. Today looks much better wrt dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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