am19psu Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 It is new work so I dont believe a publication has been submitted just yet. I know there is one brewing though. And no, he hasn't made it public on the t-storms list. I guess that might be a reason why no one is talking about it! My apologizes. Here's the link of his talk at the past AMS trop conf: https://ams.confex.c...aper205840.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 It looks like some of the models are seeing the weakness in the Gulf in the form of a couple of upper level troughs and doing the NW bend by d5. Yup... I thought about this yesterday when I saw the weakness approaching the Gulf Coast in the models, but it is still too early to tell just how strong said weakness might be with respect to picking up 05L. One thing I am intrigued at is how the models have strengthened the ridge/pushed the track of 05L south in the more near term within the eastern and central Caribbean while allowing 05L to respond better to the trough in the NW Caribbean. It's not surprising, of course, but it is interesting to watch the models' evolution of features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Might be seeing arcus clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 The trough with current base near the coast of FL could be the key in the path days 4+, as models spin off an ULL and retrogrades it west. If it materializes and is deep enough to affect the mid levels, then yes, future Ernesto could curve to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Might be seeing arcus clouds. New convection is refiring near the center, and the inflow from the SW is quite abundant and moist. Very slow improvement is likely next 24 hours (minimal TS or TD next 3 days probably) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Might be seeing arcus clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 2, 2012 Author Share Posted August 2, 2012 Yup... I thought about this yesterday when I saw the weakness approaching the Gulf Coast in the models, but it is still too early to tell just how strong said weakness might be with respect to picking up 05L. One thing I am intrigued at is how the models have strengthened the ridge/pushed the track of 05L south in the more near term within the eastern and central Caribbean while allowing 05L to respond better to the trough in the NW Caribbean. It's not surprising, of course, but it is interesting to watch the models' evolution of features. If I remember correctly, the GFS was the first to catch the more southerly track. It has preformed quite a bit better than the ECMWF with the short term forecast (1-3 days) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 "AFTER LOOKING VERY DISORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A MARGINALLY BETTER STRUCTURE WITH EVIDENCE OF INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING." Tropical cyclones do have a diurnal cycle signature in convection. Jasaon Dunion's most recent work shows that you will often see convection weaken beginning right at sunset and remain in a "suppressed" state through night. Sometimes you get this radially propagating ring of cold cloud tops away from the center of the storm, which has preferable distances from the storm depending on the UTC time. As the sun comes back up- the convection reorganizes near the center of the storm. I'm surprised no one talks about this... How recent is that research? Do you have a link? It's not been publicized on the TS mailing list and I missed the 2012 conference at Sawgrass. Sorry if this is a dumb statement, but to me...I always thought the diurnal flare up occurred very late night, but before sunrise. Is this something recently looked at? In developing systems that remain disorganized, I always thought the flare up of convection seemed to occur..say after 06z in the Atlantic basin for instance. Sunrise seems a bit late, but I'll defer to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 recon on the way, I think they find it to maybe be the same strength as the advisory says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 In the short term it's going to transition from it's current relatively small anticyclone to a bigger one in the Caribbean, this bigger anticyclone will keep the TUTT and associated dry air a bit farther away... convection should increase, but it will still be sheared to the E due to the rather strong low level flow, but shouldn't be destructive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Sorry if this is a dumb statement, but to me...I always thought the diurnal flare up occurred very late night, but before sunrise. Is this something recently looked at? In developing systems that remain disorganized, I always thought the flare up of convection seemed to occur..say after 06z in the Atlantic basin for instance. Sunrise seems a bit late, but I'll defer to you. I think the coldest cloud tops occur between 0400 and 1600 LST. That certainly agrees with what I remember from looking at satellite imagery over the years. http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~kossin/articles/Kossin_2002_MWR.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Recon is on the runway. I could see them fiding a 35 knot cyclone at the most. I'm more interested in the RH and UL readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 The arc clouds + the center outrunning the convection makes me think this isn't TD 5's day. "AFTER LOOKING VERY DISORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A MARGINALLY BETTER STRUCTURE WITH EVIDENCE OF INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING." Tropical cyclones do have a diurnal cycle signature in convection. Jasaon Dunion's most recent work shows that you will often see convection weaken beginning right at sunset and remain in a "suppressed" state through night. Sometimes you get this radially propagating ring of cold cloud tops away from the center of the storm, which has preferable distances from the storm depending on the UTC time. As the sun comes back up- the convection reorganizes near the center of the storm. I'm surprised no one talks about this... I've read and seen quite a bit about this theory and you got it backwards I think. Convection begins to strengthen right after sunset, and this coincides with the development a ring of cold cloud tops that propagates outwards from the hurricane inner core. It can be tracked through the night and into the next day's afternoon. The best theory for it now (though I am not entirely convinced) is that the development of a cloud top inversion after sunset due to radiative imbalance leads to a favorable environment for an outwards propagating gravity wave, which wouldn't be possible during the day when there is no stable layer at cloud top. This gravity wave may significantly enhance divergence as it moves outwards, so the most rapid intensification would be when it's coupled with the inner core for that brief time and evacuating mass more rapidly. Fortunately they're doing a mission on this so we'll learn more. http://www.aoml.noaa..._TC_Dirunal.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 I may be just a humble amateur, but I wasn't mistaking outflow for narrow little low cloud bands racing away from 05L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 If I remember correctly, the GFS was the first to catch the more southerly track. It has preformed quite a bit better than the ECMWF with the short term forecast (1-3 days) Absolutely, although I'm curious about how the Euro saw a stronger weakness in the longer range than the GFS yesterday. It will be interesting to review the 12Z models today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 That's a pretty good consensus of a NW turn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 I may be just a humble amateur, but I wasn't mistaking outflow for narrow little low cloud bands racing away from 05L. The overall organization is looking better, that is all that I take from it; and probably more in the future when another Hurricane Carla comes crashing into your backyard. All kidding aside; it may struggle but will be dangerous down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 It is new work so I dont believe a publication has been submitted just yet. I know there is one brewing though. And no, he hasn't made it public on the t-storms list. I guess that might be a reason why no one is talking about it! My apologizes. Here's the link of his talk at the past AMS trop conf: https://ams.confex.c...aper205840.html This is absolutly amazing work. I've noticed this before from time to time in different storms but to see all this information all together is just mind-blowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Convection seems to be trying to fire in that OFB that was released not too long ago. It's really trying, but sinking air and shear are holding it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 I think the coldest cloud tops occur between 0400 and 1600 LST. That certainly agrees with what I remember from looking at satellite imagery over the years. http://www.ssec.wisc...in_2002_MWR.pdf Yeah makes sense. I always felt like it waned a few hours after sunrise, but I never documented it closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 That southern quadrant flowing into the COC is rather impressive. Honestly I've never seen an outflow boundary from tropical convection become a "spiral band" of sorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Well the 12Z GFS is certainly interesting. It pushes 05L southish just before it rounds the edge of the subtropical ridge, and now the GFS is much further north in the end with a landfall in southern Texas. Interesting. Very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 LOL Euro. I'm feeling shades of Debby with this Euro/GFS battle going on. Now the Euro has gone way to the left of the GFS, slamming a weak 05L into southern Belize after skimming the coast of Honduras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Since it's virtually dead in here, here's the 18z SHIPS output. Steady decrease in shear over the next 24 hours, then virtually no shear (at least in the 850-200mb range) * ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052012 08/02/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 39 45 51 56 58 62 70 74 80 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 39 45 51 56 58 62 70 74 80 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 36 41 47 53 59 68 79 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 11 5 2 5 3 10 4 4 0 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 0 -1 0 6 -2 0 0 2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 264 255 263 263 229 226 235 256 273 294 246 277 104 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 139 138 142 144 138 142 143 143 145 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 145 144 142 140 144 146 137 140 139 137 138 139 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.2 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 9 11 9 10 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 60 61 60 60 62 63 67 63 68 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 13 13 12 10 9 12 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 18 31 40 42 48 53 62 86 92 89 70 67 65 200 MB DIV 42 70 60 37 44 61 46 39 28 45 47 45 48 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -6 -7 -1 -3 -1 -4 -5 -5 -5 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 628 469 346 295 322 381 312 274 295 178 176 341 301 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.6 14.0 14.7 15.2 15.5 16.1 17.1 17.8 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 55.6 57.4 59.1 60.8 62.5 65.6 68.9 72.0 74.8 77.3 79.5 81.5 83.4 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 17 16 16 16 14 13 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 27 46 54 52 40 33 68 46 59 112 125 85 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 18z SHIPS FWIW Seems to be a steady uptick with each run. Not sure the shear will subside that much after hr 12....IMO it will be close to 10-15 kts for at least 2-3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 LOL Euro. I'm feeling shades of Debby with this Euro/GFS battle going on. Now the Euro has gone way to the left of the GFS, slamming a weak 05L into southern Belize after skimming the coast of Honduras. Ridging over the central CONUS is actually weaker, but more zonal, with no weaknesses...that and the weak nature of the cyclone makes it go west undisturbed. IMO TD 5 (or Ernesto or whatever) will be stronger...but the ULL being strong enough to be able to create a weakness, that's what will be the big question and headache the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Not sure the shear will subside that much after hr 12....IMO it will be close to 10-15 kts for at least 2-3 days. Yeah, recon is showing that this has multiple low-level centers now. While the traditional shear will lower in 24 hours, this will only be able to organize at a gradual pace until it reaches the region near Jamaica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Ridging over the central CONUS is actually weaker, but more zonal, with no weaknesses...that and the weak nature of the cyclone makes it go west undisturbed. IMO TD 5 (or Ernesto or whatever) will be stronger...but the ULL being strong enough to be able to create a weakness, that's what will be the big question and headache the next few days. The LOL is more how the Euro and GFS just refuse to get on the same page with each other... yesterday the situation was almost entirely reversed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 18z Dynamic shift even further south. Still feeling the weakness at the end of the cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 GFS ensembles, for what its worth, are weaker and further South than 6Z ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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