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Tropical Depression Ernesto - 35 mph - 1004 mb - W 14 mph


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It's about darn time..

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Hurricane ERNESTO Forecast Discussion

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000

WTNT45 KNHC 071800

TCDAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012

200 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE CURRENT AND SHORT-TERM INTENSITY

AND TRACK FORECAST. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY FOUND THAT THE

MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF

PEAK BIAS-ADJUSTED SFMR WINDS OF 75 KT AND SURFACE-ADJUSTED

FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 66 KT. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO FOUND THAT THE

CENTER IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THEREFORE THE

INITIAL...12 H...AND 24 H FORECAST POINTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED

SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.

THE HURRICANE WARNING NOW INCLUDES COZUMEL...AND THE TROPICAL STORM

WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE

NORTHEAST TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY REPLACES THE 1800 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1800Z 18.5N 85.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

12H 08/0000Z 19.0N 86.8W 80 KT 90 MPH

24H 08/1200Z 19.4N 89.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND

36H 09/0000Z 19.4N 91.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER

48H 09/1200Z 19.4N 93.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER

72H 10/1200Z 19.2N 96.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND

96H 11/1200Z 19.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

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Good day all,

This storm has had a tough road for a while. The scary thing is that nearly all the numerical models LAST WEEK were showing this storm remaining weak until less than a day before hitting the Yucatan, all the while the folks at NHC were doubting the models and going with their own assumptions on intensification that did not occur (as the models verified). Maybe the dry air over the area was sampled and well initialized into the models ahead of time.

I see the core convection of Ernesto still "pulsating" and not yet that steady-state we see in stronger / RI hurricanes. Not the proximity to land may be a factor, and more dry air can be noted feeding off the mountains of C America into Ernesto.

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Inner core is wrapping up nicely. I see no problem with dry air intrusion being a significant problem for that inner core. HiRes and MW imagery clearly suggest convection is building and a complete eye wall is taking shape, IMO. This thing will be inland during the night long before any 'dry air' becomes a problem.

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Inner core is wrapping up nicely. I see no problem with dry air intrusion being a significant problem for that inner core. HiRes and MW imagery clearly suggest convection is building and a complete eye wall is taking shape, IMO. This thing will be inland during the night long before any 'dry air' becomes a problem.

Dry air hasn't been a problem with the storm since it got into the W Caribbean... the burst that occured overnight indicated we were looking primarily at a diurnal cycle. Sure the storm didn't rapidly intensify (at least not yet) like many were looking for but you have to provide conclusive proof that dry air in wrapping into a circulation. Sometimes it just takes a little bit of time for systems to consolidate.

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Dry air hasn't been a problem with the storm since it got into the W Caribbean... the burst that occured overnight indicated we were looking primarily at a diurnal cycle. Sure the storm didn't rapidly intensify (at least not yet) like many were looking for but you have to provide conclusive proof that dry air in wrapping into a circulation. Sometimes it just takes a little bit of time for systems to consolidate.

Or an eternity. :lol:

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Based on the Belize radar... the system does appear to be getting better organized. Outside chance at Cat 2 before landfall?

I'd say more than an outside chance. The eyewall is becoming better organized and more closed off with each radar and hi-res visible satellite frame.

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Any idea when/if the next recon is? I'm only seeing tomorrow's plan on both the today and the tomorrow link on the NHC page. Or does that mean there isn't one until tomorrow at 2100z.

HURRICANE ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 26

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012

400 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

ERNESTO HAS NOW BECOME A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH

DISTINCT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE

CIRCULATION...AND WELL-DEFINED CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER AIR FORCE

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SCHEDULED FOR A 0000 UTC FIX. GIVEN

THE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS CERTAINLY

POSSIBLE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. RESTRENGTHENING IS

EXPECTED WHEN ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT RAPID

WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE SECOND LANDFALL IN

MEXICO DUE TO VERY HIGH TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS

SUGGEST THAT ERNESTO COULD REGENERATE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...

THAT UNUSUAL EVENT IS NOT BEING PREDICTED AT THIS TIME.

BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES...THE

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...300/13...CONTINUES. DYNAMICAL TRACK

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH ERNESTO

MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF

MEXICO. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CENTER HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER

NORTH THAN EXPECTED...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A BIT

NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL

CONSENSUS AND THE NEW ECMWF TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 18.8N 86.2W 70 KT 80 MPH

12H 08/0600Z 19.4N 88.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND

24H 08/1800Z 19.7N 90.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

36H 09/0600Z 19.8N 92.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER

48H 09/1800Z 19.8N 94.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER

72H 10/1800Z 19.5N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

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Dry air hasn't been a problem with the storm since it got into the W Caribbean... the burst that occured overnight indicated we were looking primarily at a diurnal cycle. Sure the storm didn't rapidly intensify (at least not yet) like many were looking for but you have to provide conclusive proof that dry air in wrapping into a circulation. Sometimes it just takes a little bit of time for systems to consolidate.

There were some dry air issues according to NHC last night:

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION OF ERNESTO

HAS TAKEN A BEATING DUE TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ONLY A

SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EXISTS OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHILE

THE REST OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING MORE THAN 100

NMI NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DESPITE THE

CONVECTIVE EROSION...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND

THAT THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD REMAINS RATHER TIGHT WITH A RADIUS

OF 12-15 NMI. THE STRONGEST 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVED THUS

FAR HAS BEEN 61 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND THE HIGHEST

RAIN-ADJUSTED SFMR SURFACE WIND MEASURED HAS BEEN 46 KT. GIVEN THAT

THE RECON FOUND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF ABOUT 994 MB...WHICH IS CLOSE

TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PRESSURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL

REMAIN AT 55 KT UNTIL THE AIRCRAFT COMPLETES ITS MISSION.

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There were some dry air issues according to NHC last night:

Yea I did notice they did mention that, and the satellite signature was similar to a storm that had entrained dry air. However, this is not an environment that is characterized by dry-mid level air. I showed some soundings last night that indicated the atmosphere near the storm was very moist. I don't think the mid-level dry air entrainment was anything out of the ordinary for a storm with a large envelope such as this and in the end the dry air entrainment was temporary.

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I wish there were more buoys over the western Caribbean.

Right now, this seems to be the best station to monitor:

Pressure

http://smn.conagua.gob.mx/emas/graf/QR09pbar.gif

Winds 1-velocity (km h-1) 2- direction (deg)

http://smn.conagua.gob.mx/emas/graf/QR09vel1.gif

http://smn.conagua.gob.mx/emas/graf/QR09dir1.gif

Wind Gusts:

http://smn.conagua.gob.mx/emas/graf/QR09vel2.gif

http://smn.conagua.gob.mx/emas/graf/QR09dir2.gif

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There were some dry air issues according to NHC last night:

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION OF ERNESTO

HAS TAKEN A BEATING DUE TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ONLY A

SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EXISTS OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHILE

THE REST OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING MORE THAN 100

NMI NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DESPITE THE

CONVECTIVE EROSION...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND

THAT THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD REMAINS RATHER TIGHT WITH A RADIUS

OF 12-15 NMI. THE STRONGEST 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVED THUS

FAR HAS BEEN 61 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND THE HIGHEST

RAIN-ADJUSTED SFMR SURFACE WIND MEASURED HAS BEEN 46 KT. GIVEN THAT

THE RECON FOUND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF ABOUT 994 MB...WHICH IS CLOSE

TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PRESSURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL

REMAIN AT 55 KT UNTIL THE AIRCRAFT COMPLETES ITS MISSION.

With all due respect to the NHC, I completely disagree. There wasn't any shear, in the deep-layer or the mid-levels, to advect the dry air into the inner core. The convective structure/symmetry last night was not indicative of a tilted vortex either. Additionally, the environment is actually quite moist.

This is not to say that mid level dry air entrainment never happens, but it seems that whenever any TC does anything unexpected, dry air is the default scapegoat. How do we know that it wasn't downdrafts associated the strong outer bands that transported low theta-e air into the boundary layer, which inflowed into the inner core and choked off convection? Or that this was one of Jason Dunion's diurnal pulses? IMO, these two explanations (particularly the latter) better explain Ernesto's behavior last night than the mid-level dry air intrusion hypothesis.

Again, mid-level dry air intrusion happens in real TCs, but I wish people were more careful about invoking that explanation.

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Yea I did notice they did mention that, and the satellite signature was similar to a storm that had entrained dry air. However, this is not an environment that is characterized by dry-mid level air. I showed some soundings last night that indicated the atmosphere near the storm was very moist. I don't think the mid-level dry air entrainment was anything out of the ordinary for a storm with a large envelope such as this and in the end the dry air entrainment was temporary.

I think it was probabl;y because of the Convective bands overshooting the cyclone to the NW instead of wrapping into the center. It might actually have helped to have some light westerly shear to prevent this. I've noticed most storms that undergo RI seemed to be more constrained on the west side.

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With all due respect to the NHC, I completely disagree. There wasn't any shear, in the deep-layer or the mid-levels, to advect the dry air into the inner core. The convective structure/symmetry last night was not indicative of a tilted vortex either. Additionally, the environment is actually quite moist.

This is not to say that mid level dry air entrainment never happens, but it seems that whenever any TC does anything unexpected, dry air is the default scapegoat. How do we know that it wasn't downdrafts associated the strong outer bands that transported low theta-e air into the boundary layer, which inflowed into the inner core and choked off convection? Or that this was one of Jason Dunion's diurnal pulses? IMO, these two explanations (particularly the latter) better explain Ernesto's behavior last night than the mid-level dry air intrusion hypothesis.

Again, mid-level dry air intrusion happens in real TCs, but I wish people were more careful about invoking that explanation.

Because it sounds a lot better to say that than to say we don't really understand the internal dynamics of tropical cyclones?

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With all due respect to the NHC, I completely disagree. There wasn't any shear, in the deep-layer or the mid-levels, to advect the dry air into the inner core. The convective structure/symmetry last night was not indicative of a tilted vortex either. Additionally, the environment is actually quite moist.

This is not to say that mid level dry air entrainment never happens, but it seems that whenever any TC does anything unexpected, dry air is the default scapegoat. How do we know that it wasn't downdrafts associated the strong outer bands that transported low theta-e air into the boundary layer, which inflowed into the inner core and choked off convection? Or that this was one of Jason Dunion's diurnal pulses? IMO, these two explanations (particularly the latter) better explain Ernesto's behavior last night than the mid-level dry air intrusion hypothesis.

Again, mid-level dry air intrusion happens in real TCs, but I wish people were more careful about invoking that explanation.

I think it's more likely dry air associated with the outflow itself sinking back into the storm, since it's been fairly restricted. Calling that dry air entrainment is fine in my opinion. There have and continue to be swaths of dry air apparent on water vapor systematically throughout Ernesto, and all the outflow to the west and north is being blocked.

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I think it's more likely dry air associated with the outflow itself sinking back into the storm, since it's been fairly restricted. Calling that dry air entrainment is fine in my opinion. There have and continue to be swaths of dry air apparent on water vapor systematically throughout Ernesto, and all the outflow to the west and north is being blocked.

This post makes no sense... have you even looked at satellite imagery today?

wv-animated.gif

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This post makes no sense... have you even looked at satellite imagery today?

How does inner core outflow being partially blocked and then sinking back into the storm not make sense? It's being restricted on the north and west side, therefore it piles up and may cause some areas of subsidence.

Are you still trying to say there's no dry air at all being entrained, cause in that case I completely disagree. There's clearly dry air throughout the circulation, like yesterday and the day before. I disagree that the NHC mentioned it just because they don't know what they're doing like some are asserting.

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I think it's more likely dry air associated with the outflow itself sinking back into the storm, since it's been fairly restricted. Calling that dry air entrainment is fine in my opinion. There have and continue to be swaths of dry air apparent on water vapor systematically throughout Ernesto, and all the outflow to the west and north is being blocked.

Wow...not sure what to say...

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