Hurriplane Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 It's about darn time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 It's about darn time.. Hurricane ERNESTO Forecast Discussion Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive 000 WTNT45 KNHC 071800 TCDAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 200 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE CURRENT AND SHORT-TERM INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECAST. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY FOUND THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF PEAK BIAS-ADJUSTED SFMR WINDS OF 75 KT AND SURFACE-ADJUSTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 66 KT. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO FOUND THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THEREFORE THE INITIAL...12 H...AND 24 H FORECAST POINTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. THE HURRICANE WARNING NOW INCLUDES COZUMEL...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE NORTHEAST TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY REPLACES THE 1800 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1800Z 18.5N 85.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 19.0N 86.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 19.4N 89.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0000Z 19.4N 91.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 09/1200Z 19.4N 93.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 10/1200Z 19.2N 96.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/1200Z 19.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Recon would be pretty handy right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Recon would be pretty handy right about now. Looks like its ingesting more dry air once again IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sky-Chaser Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Good day all, This storm has had a tough road for a while. The scary thing is that nearly all the numerical models LAST WEEK were showing this storm remaining weak until less than a day before hitting the Yucatan, all the while the folks at NHC were doubting the models and going with their own assumptions on intensification that did not occur (as the models verified). Maybe the dry air over the area was sampled and well initialized into the models ahead of time. I see the core convection of Ernesto still "pulsating" and not yet that steady-state we see in stronger / RI hurricanes. Not the proximity to land may be a factor, and more dry air can be noted feeding off the mountains of C America into Ernesto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 Based on the Belize radar... the system does appear to be getting better organized. Outside chance at Cat 2 before landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 I like the way it looks, but we really have no way to get an accurate gauge of intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 I like the way it looks, but we really have no way to get an accurate gauge of intensity. when in doubt guess upwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Inner core is wrapping up nicely. I see no problem with dry air intrusion being a significant problem for that inner core. HiRes and MW imagery clearly suggest convection is building and a complete eye wall is taking shape, IMO. This thing will be inland during the night long before any 'dry air' becomes a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 when in doubt guess upwards Yeah, that's a solid plan. Not seeing a huge DAI issue like yesterday. With landfall only a few hours away, I think we can scrape 80 knots out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 Inner core is wrapping up nicely. I see no problem with dry air intrusion being a significant problem for that inner core. HiRes and MW imagery clearly suggest convection is building and a complete eye wall is taking shape, IMO. This thing will be inland during the night long before any 'dry air' becomes a problem. Dry air hasn't been a problem with the storm since it got into the W Caribbean... the burst that occured overnight indicated we were looking primarily at a diurnal cycle. Sure the storm didn't rapidly intensify (at least not yet) like many were looking for but you have to provide conclusive proof that dry air in wrapping into a circulation. Sometimes it just takes a little bit of time for systems to consolidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Dry air hasn't been a problem with the storm since it got into the W Caribbean... the burst that occured overnight indicated we were looking primarily at a diurnal cycle. Sure the storm didn't rapidly intensify (at least not yet) like many were looking for but you have to provide conclusive proof that dry air in wrapping into a circulation. Sometimes it just takes a little bit of time for systems to consolidate. Or an eternity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Based on the Belize radar... the system does appear to be getting better organized. Outside chance at Cat 2 before landfall? I'd say more than an outside chance. The eyewall is becoming better organized and more closed off with each radar and hi-res visible satellite frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Any idea when/if the next recon is? I'm only seeing tomorrow's plan on both the today and the tomorrow link on the NHC page. Or does that mean there isn't one until tomorrow at 2100z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Any idea when/if the next recon is? I'm only seeing tomorrow's plan on both the today and the tomorrow link on the NHC page. Or does that mean there isn't one until tomorrow at 2100z. HURRICANE ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 400 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012 ERNESTO HAS NOW BECOME A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DISTINCT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE CIRCULATION...AND WELL-DEFINED CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SCHEDULED FOR A 0000 UTC FIX. GIVEN THE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE SECOND LANDFALL IN MEXICO DUE TO VERY HIGH TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ERNESTO COULD REGENERATE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... THAT UNUSUAL EVENT IS NOT BEING PREDICTED AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES...THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...300/13...CONTINUES. DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH ERNESTO MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CENTER HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A BIT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE NEW ECMWF TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 18.8N 86.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 19.4N 88.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/1800Z 19.7N 90.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0600Z 19.8N 92.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 09/1800Z 19.8N 94.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 10/1800Z 19.5N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Nothing else has been tasked for today. Edit: Fix is at 00z. Really liking what I see. Sent from my 4G 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Dry air hasn't been a problem with the storm since it got into the W Caribbean... the burst that occured overnight indicated we were looking primarily at a diurnal cycle. Sure the storm didn't rapidly intensify (at least not yet) like many were looking for but you have to provide conclusive proof that dry air in wrapping into a circulation. Sometimes it just takes a little bit of time for systems to consolidate. There were some dry air issues according to NHC last night: DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION OF ERNESTO HAS TAKEN A BEATING DUE TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ONLY A SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EXISTS OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHILE THE REST OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING MORE THAN 100 NMI NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DESPITE THE CONVECTIVE EROSION...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND THAT THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD REMAINS RATHER TIGHT WITH A RADIUS OF 12-15 NMI. THE STRONGEST 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVED THUS FAR HAS BEEN 61 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND THE HIGHEST RAIN-ADJUSTED SFMR SURFACE WIND MEASURED HAS BEEN 46 KT. GIVEN THAT THE RECON FOUND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF ABOUT 994 MB...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PRESSURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 55 KT UNTIL THE AIRCRAFT COMPLETES ITS MISSION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 There were some dry air issues according to NHC last night: Yea I did notice they did mention that, and the satellite signature was similar to a storm that had entrained dry air. However, this is not an environment that is characterized by dry-mid level air. I showed some soundings last night that indicated the atmosphere near the storm was very moist. I don't think the mid-level dry air entrainment was anything out of the ordinary for a storm with a large envelope such as this and in the end the dry air entrainment was temporary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 I wish there were more buoys over the western Caribbean. Right now, this seems to be the best station to monitor: Pressure http://smn.conagua.gob.mx/emas/graf/QR09pbar.gif Winds 1-velocity (km h-1) 2- direction (deg) http://smn.conagua.gob.mx/emas/graf/QR09vel1.gif http://smn.conagua.gob.mx/emas/graf/QR09dir1.gif Wind Gusts: http://smn.conagua.gob.mx/emas/graf/QR09vel2.gif http://smn.conagua.gob.mx/emas/graf/QR09dir2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 There were some dry air issues according to NHC last night: DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION OF ERNESTO HAS TAKEN A BEATING DUE TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ONLY A SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EXISTS OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHILE THE REST OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING MORE THAN 100 NMI NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DESPITE THE CONVECTIVE EROSION...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND THAT THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD REMAINS RATHER TIGHT WITH A RADIUS OF 12-15 NMI. THE STRONGEST 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVED THUS FAR HAS BEEN 61 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND THE HIGHEST RAIN-ADJUSTED SFMR SURFACE WIND MEASURED HAS BEEN 46 KT. GIVEN THAT THE RECON FOUND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF ABOUT 994 MB...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PRESSURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 55 KT UNTIL THE AIRCRAFT COMPLETES ITS MISSION. With all due respect to the NHC, I completely disagree. There wasn't any shear, in the deep-layer or the mid-levels, to advect the dry air into the inner core. The convective structure/symmetry last night was not indicative of a tilted vortex either. Additionally, the environment is actually quite moist. This is not to say that mid level dry air entrainment never happens, but it seems that whenever any TC does anything unexpected, dry air is the default scapegoat. How do we know that it wasn't downdrafts associated the strong outer bands that transported low theta-e air into the boundary layer, which inflowed into the inner core and choked off convection? Or that this was one of Jason Dunion's diurnal pulses? IMO, these two explanations (particularly the latter) better explain Ernesto's behavior last night than the mid-level dry air intrusion hypothesis. Again, mid-level dry air intrusion happens in real TCs, but I wish people were more careful about invoking that explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Yea I did notice they did mention that, and the satellite signature was similar to a storm that had entrained dry air. However, this is not an environment that is characterized by dry-mid level air. I showed some soundings last night that indicated the atmosphere near the storm was very moist. I don't think the mid-level dry air entrainment was anything out of the ordinary for a storm with a large envelope such as this and in the end the dry air entrainment was temporary. I think it was probabl;y because of the Convective bands overshooting the cyclone to the NW instead of wrapping into the center. It might actually have helped to have some light westerly shear to prevent this. I've noticed most storms that undergo RI seemed to be more constrained on the west side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 With all due respect to the NHC, I completely disagree. There wasn't any shear, in the deep-layer or the mid-levels, to advect the dry air into the inner core. The convective structure/symmetry last night was not indicative of a tilted vortex either. Additionally, the environment is actually quite moist. This is not to say that mid level dry air entrainment never happens, but it seems that whenever any TC does anything unexpected, dry air is the default scapegoat. How do we know that it wasn't downdrafts associated the strong outer bands that transported low theta-e air into the boundary layer, which inflowed into the inner core and choked off convection? Or that this was one of Jason Dunion's diurnal pulses? IMO, these two explanations (particularly the latter) better explain Ernesto's behavior last night than the mid-level dry air intrusion hypothesis. Again, mid-level dry air intrusion happens in real TCs, but I wish people were more careful about invoking that explanation. Because it sounds a lot better to say that than to say we don't really understand the internal dynamics of tropical cyclones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 With all due respect to the NHC, I completely disagree. There wasn't any shear, in the deep-layer or the mid-levels, to advect the dry air into the inner core. The convective structure/symmetry last night was not indicative of a tilted vortex either. Additionally, the environment is actually quite moist. This is not to say that mid level dry air entrainment never happens, but it seems that whenever any TC does anything unexpected, dry air is the default scapegoat. How do we know that it wasn't downdrafts associated the strong outer bands that transported low theta-e air into the boundary layer, which inflowed into the inner core and choked off convection? Or that this was one of Jason Dunion's diurnal pulses? IMO, these two explanations (particularly the latter) better explain Ernesto's behavior last night than the mid-level dry air intrusion hypothesis. Again, mid-level dry air intrusion happens in real TCs, but I wish people were more careful about invoking that explanation. I think it's more likely dry air associated with the outflow itself sinking back into the storm, since it's been fairly restricted. Calling that dry air entrainment is fine in my opinion. There have and continue to be swaths of dry air apparent on water vapor systematically throughout Ernesto, and all the outflow to the west and north is being blocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 I think it's more likely dry air associated with the outflow itself sinking back into the storm, since it's been fairly restricted. Calling that dry air entrainment is fine in my opinion. There have and continue to be swaths of dry air apparent on water vapor systematically throughout Ernesto, and all the outflow to the west and north is being blocked. This post makes no sense... have you even looked at satellite imagery today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 This post makes no sense... have you even looked at satellite imagery today? How does inner core outflow being partially blocked and then sinking back into the storm not make sense? It's being restricted on the north and west side, therefore it piles up and may cause some areas of subsidence. Are you still trying to say there's no dry air at all being entrained, cause in that case I completely disagree. There's clearly dry air throughout the circulation, like yesterday and the day before. I disagree that the NHC mentioned it just because they don't know what they're doing like some are asserting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 I think it's more likely dry air associated with the outflow itself sinking back into the storm, since it's been fairly restricted. Calling that dry air entrainment is fine in my opinion. There have and continue to be swaths of dry air apparent on water vapor systematically throughout Ernesto, and all the outflow to the west and north is being blocked. Wow...not sure what to say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Is recon in the air? I see that there were a couple sets of High Density Observations at the airport about an hour ago, but nothing since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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