Tropical Depression Ernesto - 35 mph - 1004 mb - W 14 mph

[yoda]

11 am still 65 mph, movement WNW at 14mph, and 989mb... NHC barely makes Ernsto a hurricane at all per disco (75mph)

[Srain]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 15:41Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)

Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012

Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 10

Observation Number: 20

A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 15:18:20Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°15'N 85°06'W (18.25N 85.1W)

B. Center Fix Location: 210 miles (338 km) to the E (95°) from Chetumal, Quintana Roo, México.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,321m (4,334ft) at 850mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the WSW (256°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 346° at 43kts (From the NNW at ~ 49.5mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the WSW (256°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 987mb (29.15 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,512m (4,961ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:02:00Z

Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) in the east quadrant at 15:24:40Z

[Superstorm93]

Flight level winds are less than impressive. They remain virtually static at around 70-71 mph...

Pressure is down to 987 mbs though.

[turtlehurricane]

Winds should be a little higher in the front right quadrant on the next recon pass if they're doing another one, not sure since they got 4 fixes already. Might be just enough to upgrade if they do indeed sample it.

[icebreaker5221]

Yesterday morning we did not have nearly as expansive a high cloud shield associated with Ernesto as we do today. That allowed considerable surface heating to occur over Honduras, generating competing convection with associated subsidence over the ocean as well as a sea breeze robbing Ernesto's inflow. The expansive cloud shield today should limit this effect, and I would expect much less diurnal weakening throughout the day - if not continued strengthening.

[Superstorm93]

Approaching the Yuc

Aside from the obvious dead zone to the NW of the center, there is still too much banding near the center fror my taste. This was taken a couple of hours ago, but the presentaion remains virtually the same.

[am19psu]

Not an RI signature yet.

[Sky-Chaser]

Good day all,

Storm is looking to be developing a central core on visible satellite ...

... I see Josh M is already heading out there. More power to him (and hopefully Ernesto too)!

I was so close to going too, just the intensity and night landfall discouraged me.

[dan88]

83kt flight winds at the end of the last update.

165500 1841N 08509W 8416 01504 //// +156 //// 129066 068 055 018 01
165530 1839N 08510W 8438 01468 //// +139 //// 127074 076 058 018 01
165600 1838N 08511W 8416 01482 9983 +150 +150 122075 076 060 018 01
165630 1837N 08513W 8433 01451 //// +150 //// 126078 079 066 028 01
165700 1836N 08514W 8448 01417 //// +151 //// 130082 083 071 040 01

[icebreaker5221]

Not an RI signature yet.

Yeah, I don't think we see a diurnal collapse as witnessed yesterday, but that core has a way to go before we see any appreciable strengthening.

[dan88]

83kt ended up being peaked, extrap 983.5mb.

[Srain]

983.5 extrap with winds near 75 kts. Not too shabby...

[Superstorm93]

Pressure is down to 983.5 on this pass.

I could see them pulling the trigger on a 75-80 mph cane.

[Analog96]

83kt ended up being peaked, extrap 983.5mb.

May be upgraded to minimal hurricane soon.

[Superstorm93]

Core sturcture is still an issue.

TMI pass:

[Sky-Chaser]

Pressure is down to 983.5 on this pass.

I could see them pulling the trigger on a 75-80 mph cane.

Sinch Josh M is on his way ... Let the RI commence.

Me being there should have killed it altogether ;-)

[Srain]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 17:16Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)

Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012

Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 10

Observation Number: 24

A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 17:01:10Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°27'N 85°24'W (18.45N 85.4W) (View map)

B. Center Fix Location: 190 miles (305 km) to the E (91°) from Chetumal, Quintana Roo, México.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,288m (4,226ft) at 850mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 130° at 83kts (From the SE at ~ 95.5mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 83kts (~ 95.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 16:57:00Z

[Superstorm93]

Not bad

000

URNT12 KNHC 071716

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012

A. 07/17:01:10Z

B. 18 deg 27 min N

085 deg 24 min W

C. 850 mb 1288 m

D. 71 kt

E. 047 deg 12 nm

F. 130 deg 83 kt

G. 047 deg 12 nm

H. 984 mb

I. 17 C / 1523 m

J. 22 C / 1521 m

K. 19 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345 / 08

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF300 1005A ERNESTO OB 24

MAX FL WIND 83 KT NE QUAD 16:57:00Z

[wxmeddler]

Sonde says 984 with 12 kts on the surface, so that's 982.5ish.

[am19psu]

Should be enough to upgrade at 2pm

[Superstorm93]

Sucks that this was probably the last pass. Oh well...

ADT has been great for this storm so far.

[Srain]

HURRICANE ERNESTO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012

1800 UTC TUE AUG 07 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS INCLUDED THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL IN THE

HURRICANE WARNING AND EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD

ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CABO CATOCHE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA

* COZUMEL

* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD

TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS

* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA

* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST

OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE

HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 85.5W AT 07/1800Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.

64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

34 KT.......120NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 85.5W AT 07/1800Z

AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 84.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.0N 86.8W

MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.

50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

34 KT...120NE 60SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.4N 89.1W...INLAND

MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

34 KT...120NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.4N 91.3W...OVER WATER

MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.4N 93.4W...OVER WATER

MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.2N 96.6W...INLAND

MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.

34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 19.0N 100.0W...INLAND

MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 85.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

[am19psu]

The latest IR is getting rather suggestive with the location of the coldest cloud tops.

[LakeEffectKing]

The latest IR is getting rather suggestive with the location of the coldest cloud tops.

With bands actually feeding into the center now (as opposed to encircling the core) we can advect moisture and vorticity into the core. Ernesto looks much more promising than last evening.

[Shawn]

For anyone who missed the links earlier in this thread, this site has some very high resolution aerial images of Ernesto (along with the other tropical systems in the world) the resolutions go as high as 250/500m which is amazing stuff.

http://lance-modis.e...ery/gallery.cgi

2KM Preview

[Mike.Ventrice]

According to Jason Dunion's diurnal tropical cyclone "pulse" product, it appears Ernesto is going through a dirunal pulse. The warm colors repsent cloud tops that have cooled since 6 hours ago, and vice versa for the cold colors. This would suggest warming may occur in the core of the TC- suggesting a collopse of the deepest convection during the day near the core of the TC...

[Superstorm93]

According to Jason Dunion's diurnal tropical cyclone "pulse" product, it appears Ernesto is going through a dirunal pulse. The warm colors repsent cloud tops that have cooled since 6 hours ago, and vice versa for the cold colors. This would suggest warming may occur in the core of the TC- suggesting a collopse of the deepest convection during the day near the core of the TC...

Very interesting. Is this product available anywhere to the public? I've been looking for that for a year about now, but haven't come close.

[Mike.Ventrice]

Very interesting. Is this product available anywhere to the public? I've been looking for that for a year about now, but haven't come close.

I don't believe it is public ready just yet... I will certaintly let everyone know when that happens though.

[thewxmann]

Regardless of diurnal influences, I think frictional convergence is going to assist in core consolidation in the hours preceding landfall, as the core still appears loose in MW imagery. As the internal structure consolidates I expect a rapid uptick in intensity at landfall, perhaps to Cat 2 status.

[Superstorm93]

Regardless of diurnal influences, I think frictional convergence is going to assist in core consolidation in the hours preceding landfall, as the core still appears loose in MW imagery. As the internal structure consolidates I expect a rapid uptick in intensity at landfall, perhaps to Cat 2 status.

If that does occur, we'll have to base intensity off of the ADT numbers. Unless we see a full-blown eye, not sure how much help they will actually be.