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Tropical Depression Ernesto - 35 mph - 1004 mb - W 14 mph


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200 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...ERNESTO HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.3N 83.3W

ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ENE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS

ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM E OF BELIZE CITY

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

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H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.32 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Open, open wnw-nw

M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)

Maximum Wind Outbound: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) in the north quadrant at 5:55:10Z

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H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.32 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Open, open wnw-nw

M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)

Maximum Wind Outbound: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) in the north quadrant at 5:55:10Z

Those aren't bad vitals.

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Hopefully this will quiet the "dry air" crowd for good. If anything, the worry should be whether the environment is too moist, allowing the outer bands to sprout up and become too dominant (e.g. Ike 2008), but I don't think that's the case here judging from the tight wind field developing in the inner core.

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Yeah, I hate to be such a weenie, but I feel like maybe it's really making its move now. Despite being so dry and skeletal all night, the structure and exhaust system were clearly in place all along-- and now we're finally seeing that central burst of energy, which has been expanding for at least the last 90 mins or so.

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Yeah, I hate to be such a weenie, but I feel like maybe it's really making its move now. Despite being so dry and skeletal all night, the structure and exhaust system were clearly in place all along-- and now we're finally seeing that central burst of energy, which has been expanding for at least the last 90 mins or so.

Well I agree with you. This burst is the real deal and a budding CDO is developing. Considering we already know it had a partial eyewall before the burst occurred, I'd say chances are pretty good Ernesto is now intensifying. Of course it will be hard to know for sure until we get recon or a good microwave pass.

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Again the inner core is pretty small so this could ramp up in a big way momentarily.

For Josh's and the sake of the sanity of some of the posters here (and so we can stop talking about 300+ hr GFS fantasies in the general discussion thread and focus on something realistic), I hope so...

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 13:33Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)

Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012

Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 10 seeall.png

Observation Number: 12

A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 13:12:00Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°56'N 84°35'W (17.9333N 84.5833W) viewmap.png

B. Center Fix Location: 239 miles (385 km) to the E (83°) from Belize City, Belize.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,336m (4,383ft) at 850mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 138° at 63kts (From the SE at ~ 72.5mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 988mb (29.18 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 850mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:02:00Z

Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NE (44°) from the flight level center

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

BANDING HAS DIMINISHED ON CENTRAL FEATURE, BCMNG MORE CIRCULAR. RUNS N THRU SSE.

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Very well behaved since my last post yesterday...RI chances are very high, and it will be strengthening up until landfall. No doubt this will be a hurricane, probably a cat 2.

I don't doubt a hurricane, but I don't think it reaches Cat 2 status being 300 miles from the coast. Doubt there will be much time for significant RI... if it had happened earlier I would agree with your post

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I don't doubt a hurricane, but I don't think it reaches Cat 2 status being 300 miles from the coast. Doubt there will be much time for significant RI... if it had happened earlier I would agree with your post

SHIPS has a 40% chance of 80 knots. That is almost Cat 2. Of course, it doesn't quite have a full day to do that, unless it slows down even more. But I say it has at least a chance of minimal Cat 2 intensity. 987 to 988mb last pass, looks like.

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 14:44Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)

Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012

Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 10 seeall.png

Observation Number: 16

A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 14:15:10Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°05'N 84°47'W (18.0833N 84.7833W) viewmap.png

B. Center Fix Location: 228 miles (367 km) to the E (80°) from Belize City, Belize.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,327m (4,354ft) at 850mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SE (143°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 207° at 57kts (From the SSW at ~ 65.6mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the SE (141°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 989mb (29.21 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,518m (4,980ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,512m (4,961ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 850mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:02:00Z

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