Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 It's a start. Should be the last fix and heading home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 Should be the last fix and heading home. Dropsonde has 993 and the strongest flight level winds of this mission in the N quadrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Dropsonde has 993 and the strongest flight level winds of this mission in the N quadrant. Yay!1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Anyone else having Ike flashbacks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Thought they might go ahead with 993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 200 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012 ...ERNESTO HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 83.3W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ENE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Thought they might go ahead with 993. It's really gaining latitude-- will definitely be a MX landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 So... It seems to be on a modest strengthening trend, judging by the IR imagery and the new recon pressure. Three hours from now is the moment of truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Interestingly, that little microball of intense convection is exactly where the advisory puts the center. Kinda interestin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.32 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Open, open wnw-nw M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) Maximum Wind Outbound: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) in the north quadrant at 5:55:10Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.32 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Open, open wnw-nw M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) Maximum Wind Outbound: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) in the north quadrant at 5:55:10Z Those aren't bad vitals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 That central ball of convection is expanding with each frame. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 Those aren't bad vitals. And here is the burst of convection we have been waiting for... Its a shame recon is going home, right when things are getting more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Hopefully this will quiet the "dry air" crowd for good. If anything, the worry should be whether the environment is too moist, allowing the outer bands to sprout up and become too dominant (e.g. Ike 2008), but I don't think that's the case here judging from the tight wind field developing in the inner core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Yeah, I hate to be such a weenie, but I feel like maybe it's really making its move now. Despite being so dry and skeletal all night, the structure and exhaust system were clearly in place all along-- and now we're finally seeing that central burst of energy, which has been expanding for at least the last 90 mins or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 Yeah, I hate to be such a weenie, but I feel like maybe it's really making its move now. Despite being so dry and skeletal all night, the structure and exhaust system were clearly in place all along-- and now we're finally seeing that central burst of energy, which has been expanding for at least the last 90 mins or so. Well I agree with you. This burst is the real deal and a budding CDO is developing. Considering we already know it had a partial eyewall before the burst occurred, I'd say chances are pretty good Ernesto is now intensifying. Of course it will be hard to know for sure until we get recon or a good microwave pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Anyone else having Ike flashbacks? Naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 Again the inner core is pretty small so this could ramp up in a big way momentarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Again the inner core is pretty small so this could ramp up in a big way momentarily. For Josh's and the sake of the sanity of some of the posters here (and so we can stop talking about 300+ hr GFS fantasies in the general discussion thread and focus on something realistic), I hope so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Starting to see better circulation too http://www.daculaweather.com/4_carb_ft_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 989mb still 62 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Very well behaved since my last post yesterday...RI chances are very high, and it will be strengthening up until landfall. No doubt this will be a hurricane, probably a cat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 A touch of convergence with that blob I see that the pressure finally lowered sub-990 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 13:33Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300) Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012 Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 10 Observation Number: 12 A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 13:12:00Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°56'N 84°35'W (17.9333N 84.5833W) B. Center Fix Location: 239 miles (385 km) to the E (83°) from Belize City, Belize. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,336m (4,383ft) at 850mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 138° at 63kts (From the SE at ~ 72.5mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 988mb (29.18 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 850mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:02:00Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NE (44°) from the flight level center Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... BANDING HAS DIMINISHED ON CENTRAL FEATURE, BCMNG MORE CIRCULAR. RUNS N THRU SSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... BANDING HAS DIMINISHED ON CENTRAL FEATURE, BCMNG MORE CIRCULAR. RUNS N THRU SSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 My Isidore memories are fading rapidly. Ernesto not a hollow shell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Very well behaved since my last post yesterday...RI chances are very high, and it will be strengthening up until landfall. No doubt this will be a hurricane, probably a cat 2. I don't doubt a hurricane, but I don't think it reaches Cat 2 status being 300 miles from the coast. Doubt there will be much time for significant RI... if it had happened earlier I would agree with your post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 141630 1809N 08450W 8429 01400 9876 +214 +192 044022 031 026 005 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 I don't doubt a hurricane, but I don't think it reaches Cat 2 status being 300 miles from the coast. Doubt there will be much time for significant RI... if it had happened earlier I would agree with your post SHIPS has a 40% chance of 80 knots. That is almost Cat 2. Of course, it doesn't quite have a full day to do that, unless it slows down even more. But I say it has at least a chance of minimal Cat 2 intensity. 987 to 988mb last pass, looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 14:44Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300) Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012 Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 10 Observation Number: 16 A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 14:15:10Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°05'N 84°47'W (18.0833N 84.7833W) B. Center Fix Location: 228 miles (367 km) to the E (80°) from Belize City, Belize. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,327m (4,354ft) at 850mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SE (143°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 207° at 57kts (From the SSW at ~ 65.6mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the SE (141°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 989mb (29.21 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,518m (4,980ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,512m (4,961ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 850mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:02:00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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