Ed Lizard Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 ^^ Same process in an inland decaying TC having nocturnal core rain events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Back to Ernesto, maybe its because there is only one good bit of convection near the center, but several HBOBs, close to a 50% reduction between flight level winds and SFMR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 The new advisory indicates it hasn't strengthened (obviously). They bring it ashore near Majahual (where Dean 2007 came ashore) around 06Z with winds of 70 kt or higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sky-Chaser Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Good day all... Yep: ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ERNESTO HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 82.7W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES A whopping whole mb lower than 11 am ... Meh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 A whopping whole mb lower than 11 am ... Meh... Not the most rapid intensification you'll see in the area. the inner core convection of Ernesto has taken a beating due to mid-level dry air entrainment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 So frustrating. Everything's in place-- even a tight wind core-- and a little dry air ruins it all: CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...EXCEPT FOR THE LACK OF INNER-CORE DEEP CONVECTION. EVEN THOUGH RECON DATA INDICATE ERNESTO STILL HAS A TIGHT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD...DRY AIR THAT HAS WRAPPED WELL INTO THE CENTER WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY STRONG CENTRAL CONVECTION FROM BEING ABLE TO PERSIST NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Just wasting OHC at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Last pass indicates motion is 296° and some uncontaminated 60 mph SFMR obs. in the NE Quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 I am reminded of something a decade ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Last pass indicates motion is 296° and some uncontaminated 60 mph SFMR obs. in the NE Quad. Lame but holding its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 I am reminded of something a decade ago. Isidor Nooo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1115 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONFIRMS ADVISORY INTENSITY... AT 1045 PM EDT...AND AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED AN ADJUSTED SURFACE WIND OF 63 MPH...97 KM/H...IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS RECENT WIND DATA SUPPORTS THE 11 PM EDT ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 65 MPH...100 KM/H. $$ FORECASTER STEWART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1115 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONFIRMS ADVISORY INTENSITY... AT 1045 PM EDT...AND AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED AN ADJUSTED SURFACE WIND OF 63 MPH...97 KM/H...IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS RECENT WIND DATA SUPPORTS THE 11 PM EDT ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 65 MPH...100 KM/H. $$ FORECASTER STEWART Actually not bad-- because I was sort of assuming the advisory intensity was charitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 Lame but holding its own. The inner core is established, the shear is low, and the SSTs and OHC are more than sufficient. It shouldn't take long for convection to refire over the center. Mid-level dry air typically quickly mixes out in a moist environment such as this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Lame but holding its own. Looks like Ernesto needs a gatorade. Nice upper anticyclone though, could easily resume rapid intensification. There are definitely going to be a few papers on why this storm weakened and strengthened so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 The inner core is established, the shear is low, and the SSTs and OHC are more than sufficient. It shouldn't take long for convection to refire over the center. Mid-level dry air typically quickly mixes out in a moist environment such as this. Looks like Ernesto needs a gatorade. lolz Nice upper anticyclone though, could easily resume rapid intensification. There are definitely going to be a few papers on why this storm weakened and strengthened so quickly. If only it can work out that dry air. It seems to be the one flaw in this otherwise perfect setup. Grrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Based on the latest sounding in the region there is quite a bit of dry air unfortunately, those darn Hadley Cells, wish they would get off our lawn. http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=naconf&TYPE=GIF%3ASKEWT&YEAR=2012&MONTH=08&FROM=0700&TO=0700&STNM=78988 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 Based on the latest sounding in the region there is quite a bit of dry air unfortunately, those darn Hadley Cells, wish they would get off our lawn. http://weather.uwyo....0700&STNM=78988 That sounding is the East Caribbean, where there is a lot of mid-level dry air. Two soundings that are closer and more representative of Ernesto's environment show little to no evidence of any dry air in the environment. For example, this is from the Cayman Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 That sounding is the East Caribbean, where there is a lot of mid-level dry air. Two soundings that are closer and more representative of Ernesto's environment show little to no evidence of any dry air in the environment. Water vapor imagery suggests Ernesto is entraining dry air from the region of subsidence in the eastern Caribbean. TPW does not capture such subtleties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 Water vapor imagery suggests Ernesto is entraining dry air from the region of subsidence in the eastern Caribbean. TPW does not capture such subtleties. Are you sure? I see no evidence on water vapor that the inner core of Ernesto is entraining dry air from a location 1000+ miles to its east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Outflow to the S is decreasing. Now the southern blob could be gone by morning and there could be some structure back. Still a big imbalance with much stronger winds on the NE side of the storm than the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 u really can't see mid and lower level dry air well on that specific WV imagery...it's weighting is such that upper levels are much more visible. Most of that dry air appears to caused by upper level subsidence, some of which is courtesy of Ernesto itself. How can you ingest dry from such a distance in a low shear environment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 995 L. Eye Character: Open, open nw M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 The cyclone seems to be trying to close off that big, hollow center with convection this evening. Scott pointed it out to me via eMail, and at first I thought he was talking nonsense-- but now I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 The cyclone seems to be trying to close off that big, hollow center with convection this evening. Scott pointed it out to me via eMail, and at first I thought he was talking nonsense-- but now I see it. we can only hope for something Alex-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Well checking a few 00z's out and some ensembles.. this is most likely going to be a Mexico type deal regardless of strength. I got so excited earlier when it may have had even a small chance to giving some beneficial rain to Texas at least (maybe too much as dry as it is lately). Reference models/messages: http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2012/al052012/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 A band does form on the Northwest side and wrap around the center it will drop 44mb in 3 hrs before landfall because the outflow channel is insane and so is everything else. Of course I don't think that will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 A band does form on the Northwest side and wrap around the center it will drop 44mb in 3 hrs before landfall because the outflow channel is insane and so is everything else. Of course I don't think that will happen. On the realistic side we have about 24 hours before landfall and the environment is moistening up. While we haven't had a huge burst of convection near the center yet, that might be just around the corner given the environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 994 It's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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