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Tropical Depression Ernesto - 35 mph - 1004 mb - W 14 mph


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Good day all...

Yep: ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ERNESTO HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.0N 82.7W

ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS

ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF BELIZE CITY

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

A whopping whole mb lower than 11 am ... Meh...

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A whopping whole mb lower than 11 am ... Meh...

Not the most rapid intensification you'll see in the area. ;)

the inner core convection of Ernesto

has taken a beating due to mid-level dry air entrainment

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So frustrating. Everything's in place-- even a tight wind core-- and a little dry air ruins it all:

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...EXCEPT FOR THE LACK OF INNER-CORE DEEP CONVECTION. EVEN THOUGH RECON DATA INDICATE ERNESTO STILL HAS A TIGHT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD...DRY AIR THAT HAS WRAPPED WELL INTO THE CENTER WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY STRONG CENTRAL CONVECTION FROM BEING ABLE TO PERSIST NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012

1115 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONFIRMS ADVISORY INTENSITY...

AT 1045 PM EDT...AND AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT

MEASURED AN ADJUSTED SURFACE WIND OF 63 MPH...97 KM/H...IN THE

NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS RECENT WIND DATA SUPPORTS THE 11 PM EDT

ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 65 MPH...100 KM/H.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012

1115 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONFIRMS ADVISORY INTENSITY...

AT 1045 PM EDT...AND AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT

MEASURED AN ADJUSTED SURFACE WIND OF 63 MPH...97 KM/H...IN THE

NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS RECENT WIND DATA SUPPORTS THE 11 PM EDT

ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 65 MPH...100 KM/H.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

Actually not bad-- because I was sort of assuming the advisory intensity was charitable.

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The inner core is established, the shear is low, and the SSTs and OHC are more than sufficient. It shouldn't take long for convection to refire over the center. Mid-level dry air typically quickly mixes out in a moist environment such as this.

:wub:

Looks like Ernesto needs a gatorade.

lolz

Nice upper anticyclone though, could easily resume rapid intensification. There are definitely going to be a few papers on why this storm weakened and strengthened so quickly.

If only it can work out that dry air. It seems to be the one flaw in this otherwise perfect setup. Grrr.

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Based on the latest sounding in the region there is quite a bit of dry air unfortunately, those darn Hadley Cells, wish they would get off our lawn.

http://weather.uwyo....0700&STNM=78988

That sounding is the East Caribbean, where there is a lot of mid-level dry air. Two soundings that are closer and more representative of Ernesto's environment show little to no evidence of any dry air in the environment.

206hfur.png

For example, this is from the Cayman Islands.

2012080700.78384.skewt.gif

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That sounding is the East Caribbean, where there is a lot of mid-level dry air. Two soundings that are closer and more representative of Ernesto's environment show little to no evidence of any dry air in the environment.

206hfur.png

Water vapor imagery suggests Ernesto is entraining dry air from the region of subsidence in the eastern Caribbean. TPW does not capture such subtleties.

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Water vapor imagery suggests Ernesto is entraining dry air from the region of subsidence in the eastern Caribbean. TPW does not capture such subtleties.

Are you sure? I see no evidence on water vapor that the inner core of Ernesto is entraining dry air from a location 1000+ miles to its east.

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u really can't see mid and lower level dry air well on that specific WV imagery...it's weighting is such that upper levels are much more visible. Most of that dry air appears to caused by upper level subsidence, some of which is courtesy of Ernesto itself. How can you ingest dry from such a distance in a low shear environment?

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Well checking a few 00z's out and some ensembles.. this is most likely going to be a Mexico type deal regardless of strength. I got so excited earlier when it may have had even a small chance to giving some beneficial rain to Texas at least (maybe too much as dry as it is lately).

Reference models/messages: http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2012/al052012/

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A band does form on the Northwest side and wrap around the center it will drop 44mb in 3 hrs before landfall because the outflow channel is insane and so is everything else. Of course I don't think that will happen.

On the realistic side we have about 24 hours before landfall and the environment is moistening up. While we haven't had a huge burst of convection near the center yet, that might be just around the corner given the environment.

r1iwkm.jpg

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