Sky-Chaser Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 I'm just ready to move on. It seems like this thing has been annoying everyone for weeks now. Yup ... Like any Cape Verde system. You watch it for so long, thinking you'll see it, and in the end, you don't. Like making a date 2-3 weeks in the future instead of "tonight" ... LOTS can happen in that time - And you know what the end result will be (disappointment). I love those storms that suddenly form close to home, like in the Gulf of Mexico, of just off the US SE Coast within a day or two's notice. That "go" or "no go" decision's easy, no "games", no "teasing", no "divided" forums from the confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Central convection has completely collapsed for now. Very interesting to see. Sent from my 4G 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 It's diurnal cycles. It'll come back tonight. The new NHC forecast has nudged N a tad, bringing the center ashore on the MX side now-- just a hair N of Chetumal. The slowing suggests the landfall might occur later-- by the light of day-- which would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 finally it committed suicide... good riddance. If the storm makes you unhappy, you don't need to track it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Looks somewhat similar to Haikui in the western Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 finally it committed suicide... good riddance. You're right. There is totally no tropical storm in the western Caribbean anymore. Sunny and filled with high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sugaree Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 If the storm makes you unhappy, you don't need to track it. Hey! I'm kidding! I want the same thing you do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Ernesto is the biggest troll I've ever seen in my limited time of watching TC's. Can anybody else remember a storm (besides the previous ernesto) with such a bad temper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Hey! I'm kidding! I want the same thing you do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sugaree Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 I just wish it would have done it back when it was under Jamaica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 While I agree that the system is not rapidly intensifying at this time, the system is obviously under the most favorable conditions of its lifetime. There is little shear impinging on the storm with deep layer easterlies overhead, and the warming of cloud top temperatures today is more of a diurnal cycle rather than true dry air entrainment. In fact, there is copious precipitable water surrounding the circulation at this time. I fully expect convection to return with vengeance tonight. It's diurnal cycles. It'll come back tonight. This. Everyone needs to calm down. The LLC remains vigorous and well-defined on visible imagery, and we'll get that classic sunset burst before long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Ernesto is the biggest troll I've ever seen in my limited time of watching TC's. Can anybody else remember a storm (besides the previous ernesto) with such a bad temper? The greatest Atlantic Fail of all time Was Debby (2000). Never have tropical weenies been so crushed. I know there were multiple GooFDLe runs annihilating Miami - I think there were at least a couple of aggressive NHC advisories prior to it committing Hari-Kiri; will have to look that up.... Yep.. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2000/dis/NAL0700.015.html NEVERTHELESS...DEBBY COULD BE A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 19.7N 68.7W 65 KTS 12HR VT 23/1800Z 20.3N 70.7W 65 KTS 24HR VT 24/0600Z 21.0N 72.9W 65 KTS 36HR VT 24/1800Z 22.0N 75.1W 75 KTS 48HR VT 25/0600Z 23.0N 77.0W 80 KTS 72HR VT 26/0600Z 25.5N 80.0W 90 KTS And 12 hours later...... RECON AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE SEPARATED FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION DURING THE DAY. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 20.0N 72.3W 45 KTS 12HR VT 24/0600Z 20.5N 74.9W 40 KTS 24HR VT 24/1800Z 21.4N 77.6W 35 KTS 36HR VT 25/0600Z 22.6N 79.5W 35 KTS 48HR VT 25/1800Z 24.0N 81.0W 40 KTS 72HR VT 26/1800Z 26.5N 82.5W 55 KTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Ernesto is the biggest troll I've ever seen in my limited time of watching TC's. Can anybody else remember a storm (besides the previous ernesto) with such a bad temper? Cmon. Fay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sky-Chaser Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 It's diurnal cycles. It'll come back tonight. The new NHC forecast has nudged N a tad, bringing the center ashore on the MX side now-- just a hair N of Chetumal. The slowing suggests the landfall might occur later-- by the light of day-- which would be awesome. Hey Josh, Chris here... I've been staring at this thing for days now myself ... Holding that trigger all that time for the $400 to $500 R/T airfare into Cancun from Miami. I can get out tomorrow morning (latest) and be in Cancun by 11 AM, then head south for nearly 150 to 175 Miles (not km, lol). I'm getting a bit discouraged by the intensity as well as the track bending more SW (left) later, I'll bet more on a right "tendancy". If this was gonna be a Cancun-Tulum strike, and daytime, and Cat-3 or more, I'd already be there (well, who knows, it may still be). Unfortunately, I leaned more towards a "no" go for this one, as my final decision to not take off this week was before 2 PM today ;-) Anyway, there is still 2 NIGHTS of strengthening left, tonight (important), and tomorrow (if land don't affect it much). I see the storm coming in by Chetemul during the night (darn) on very early Wednesday morning. Right now, if it does intensity at night, I'll put it in as a category 2 at landfall. The issue (besides nightime landfall) is the area it's coming in at. There is a road that branches off Mexico 307 (on Google it's unlabeled) that heads 15-20 miles to the coast near Costa Maya. The turn is about 5 miles NE of highway 293, just before 307 "jogs" SW. I am not sure of the condition of this road, it appears to go through a terrain similar to mainland Monroe county in the N FL Keys but not too near the bay. There seems to be resorts and a cruise terminal in the Costa Maya village. The night landfall and evacuations will concern me, but I've done that before. I know you (Josh) were in Chetemul for Dean back in 2007, I think this town (Costa Maya) was scored by that storm as it was cat-5. Chetemul appears to be tucked into a bay, but the bay appear large enough for a good surge / wave battering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 This. Everyone needs to calm down. The LLC remains vigorous and well-defined on visible imagery, and we'll get that classic sunset burst before long. Thank you. Hey Josh, Chris here... I've been staring at this thing for days now myself ... Holding that trigger all that time for the $400 to $500 R/T airfare into Cancun from Miami. I can get out tomorrow morning (latest) and be in Cancun by 11 AM, then head south for nearly 150 to 175 Miles (not km, lol). I'm getting a bit discouraged by the intensity as well as the track bending more SW (left) later, I'll bet more on a right "tendancy". If this was gonna be a Cancun-Tulum strike, and daytime, and Cat-3 or more, I'd already be there (well, who knows, it may still be). Unfortunately, I leaned more towards a "no" go for this one, as my final decision to not take off this week was before 2 PM today ;-) Anyway, there is still 2 NIGHTS of strengthening left, tonight (important), and tomorrow (if land don't affect it much). I see the storm coming in by Chetemul during the night (darn) on very early Wednesday morning. Right now, if it does intensity at night, I'll put it in as a category 2 at landfall. The issue (besides nightime landfall) is the area it's coming in at. There is a road that branches off Mexico 307 (on Google it's unlabeled) that heads 15-20 miles to the coast near Costa Maya. The turn is about 5 miles NE of highway 293, just before 307 "jogs" SW. I am not sure of the condition of this road, it appears to go through a terrain similar to mainland Monroe county in the N FL Keys but not too near the bay. There seems to be resorts and a cruise terminal in the Costa Maya village. The night landfall and evacuations will concern me, but I've done that before. I know you (Josh) were in Chetemul for Dean back in 2007, I think this town (Costa Maya) was scored by that storm as it was cat-5. Chetemul appears to be tucked into a bay, but the bay appear large enough for a good surge / wave battering. Hey, Chris! Yeah, this one is a tough call. I keep "making up my mind" about it and then changing my mind. The area is quite rural and it's tough going-- yes. It's definitely not chase turf for everyone. Chetumal is a very small city, and while it's tucked in a bay, that doesn't really protect it. The city was obliterated by Hurricane Janet in 1955 and hit really hard by Carmen in 1974. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Cmon. Fay? Exactly what I was thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 The outer band is robbing the inner core, and it is not about to contract or dissipate anytime soon. Lesson Of the day: Southward outflow channels are not good for west moving storms!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Cmon. Fay? Thought of that, but the amount of rain dropped was amazing in of itself. Can't forget that Eye forming after landfall in S FL! Just trying to spark some conversation while Ernie is taking a nap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 This. Everyone needs to calm down. The LLC remains vigorous and well-defined on visible imagery, and we'll get that classic sunset burst before long. Yes. They do. MW still looks looks impressive and we are nearing what seems to be the cycle for Ernesto to put on a show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Yes. They do. MW still looks looks impressive and we are nearing what seems to be the cycle for Ernesto to put on a show. Another interesting note is that the convection is still asymmetric to the NE of the circulation center, so if anything, the track is likely to remain slower and further north than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Also... While the core convection has slackened off today, even on the IR loop you can see the outflow expanding in all directions, including the W. This storm is not being sheared. The cyclone's "architecture" is there, it seems to me. Like CUmet said, I expect it to flare up again after sundown. It's one of these cyclones that seems to pulse and wane, pulse and wane... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Another interesting note is that the convection is still asymmetric to the NE of the circulation center, so if anything, the track is likely to remain slower and further north than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 With how good MW is looking and the well developed outflow setting up. The limited shear it is in right now could take Ernesto to a hurricane if not a strong cat 1 weak cat 2 before all set and done. Very interested to see what tonight's convective show does for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Size has grown considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Large "eye" was present at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 I'm having a bit of trouble interpreting the IR trends. I'm seeing big, sweeping arcs of convective energy-- but gyrating around what appears to be a very large center-- which is strange given the extremely tight core this morning. Or perhaps I'm misinterpreting the imagery... I believe I see the center around 16.5N 81.7W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 The latest SSMI looks much better. Rain bands are wrapped about 2/3 of the way around the center now and appear to be trying to fill in the western side. I still do not think it will RI tonight since usually the rain has to be wrapped all the way around before RI can begin. Maybe the high OHC can speed the process up and it can get going tomorrow morning. Watching the visible/IR isn't much use. In weak storms the diurnal cycle will do its thing. As far as I know, there isn't any research indicating that RI is more likely to begin at a certain time of day. I have been curious to use TRMM data to track the diurnal cycle of TC precipitation but it is currently buried on the "to do" list. What is more interesting to me if the convection helps the rain bands get organized? Which comes first, the organization or the convection? Or both at once? It seems like the convection is only marginally related to the organization of the storm--and is often detrimental to development if it occurs away from the center or if it is triggered by dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 I'm having a bit of trouble interpreting the IR trends. I'm seeing big, sweeping arcs of convective energy-- but gyrating around what appears to be a very large center-- which is strange given the extremely tight core this morning. Or perhaps I'm misinterpreting the imagery... I believe I see the center around 16.5N 81.7W. That's what I see Josh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Ernesto The Skeleton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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