am19psu Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 It shows up somewhat better on the color composite. I'd still like to see a better signature before I forecasted RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 I'd still like to see a better signature before I forecasted RI. Agreed... The good news (for Josh's sake) is that we have at least another 36-48 hours at this current heading and speed before landfall. That is plenty of time for development in the West Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Agreed... The good news (for Josh's sake) is that we have at least another 36-48 hours at this current heading and speed before landfall. That is plenty of time for development in the West Caribbean. Yeah, I went for RI [Edit:] potential tomorrow afternoon in my forecast this morning based on the KW moving through. That would be a worst case for BZ/MX, though, since it wouldn't give a lot of time for warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 What's more interesting is that the center looks a good bit north of even the 11AM forecast track and the 4 VDMs indicate movement at about 305 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 No real change in the 12Z GFS... still WNW across southern Yucatan and extreme southern BOC before landfall while moving SW into Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 000 URNT12 KNHC 061612 CCA VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012 A. 06/16:00:30Z B. 16 deg 01 min N 080 deg 41 min W C. 850 mb 1409 m D. 55 kt E. 059 deg 25 nm F. 156 deg 62 kt G. 073 deg 10 nm H. 997 mb I. 15 C / 1557 m J. 22 C / 1471 m K. 16 C / NA L. CLOSED WALL M. C15 N. 12345 / 8 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 18 CCA MAX FL WIND 77 KT NW QUAD 13:19:00Z MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 31 KT SW QUAD 16:02:00Z GOOD RADAR SIGNATURE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 There's your eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Yeah, I went for RI [Edit:] potential tomorrow afternoon in my forecast this morning based on the KW moving through. That would be a worst case for BZ/MX, though, since it wouldn't give a lot of time for warning. I'm thinking RI is more likely than not at this point. In addition to the CCKW, we also have duel outflow channels developing. One to its northeast (over the Bahamas), another to its northwest (Gulf of Mexico) that should enhance poleward outflow. The CCKW will enhance equator-ward outflow. The storm is also smaller than average currently, which also bodes well for rapid intensity changes. Its amazing how far this system has come in 24 hours. It sorta reminds me of Gustav (2008) which looked very poorly organized after its interaction with Haiti, and then one very nice diurnal max reestablished the inner core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 For anyone feeling a bit bored, check out the NCAR WRF-ARW forecast for Ernesto. It will not dissapoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 For anyone feeling a bit bored, check out the NCAR WRF-ARW forecast for Ernesto. It will not dissapoint. Has it making landfall in the N Yucatan, intresting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 For anyone feeling a bit bored, check out the NCAR WRF-ARW forecast for Ernesto. It will not dissapoint. FWIW, that is WAY north of the NHC precast track, and is almost into the Yucatan channel. Probably because the pressure with Ernesto is sub-980 mb when it Is making landfall as a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Gaining latitude in a hurry, 996.6mb extrap with the latest past, but center around 16.20N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Direction between last two passes is like 307 degrees. Almost NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Still a 305 heading. SW section of the CDO seems to be warming quite a bit on IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Agree 100%. In fact, I would argue that there are three outflow channels, one enhanced by the upper low in the southern Gulf, one enhanced by the upper low just east of the Bahamas, and the third on the south side possibly being enhanced by the passage of the Kelvin wave. Ernesto has great dynamical support aloft. The ocean heat content is quite high as well, although not quite as high as further north. The inner core structure looks good too in microwave, with a eye confirmed on visible and by recon. RI doesn't tend to happen in a straight line, it's usually more like a staircase. Thus, we may not actually see much intensification during the day today, but I would watch the overnight period tonight for the next major step down in pressure based on some of Jason Dunion's preliminary work on diurnal processes. I think a major hurricane landfall is a distinct possibility. This has a lot of time left... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 For anyone feeling a bit bored, check out the NCAR WRF-ARW forecast for Ernesto. If I (sort of) didn't know better I'd say it's actually representing trochoidal wobble in the run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Agree 100%. In fact, I would argue that there are three outflow channels, one enhanced by the upper low in the southern Gulf, one enhanced by the upper low just east of the Bahamas, and the third on the south side possibly being enhanced by the passage of the Kelvin wave. Ernesto has great dynamical support aloft. The ocean heat content is quite high as well, although not quite as high as further north. The inner core structure looks good too in microwave, with a eye confirmed on visible and by recon. RI doesn't tend to happen in a straight line, it's usually more like a staircase. Thus, we may not actually see much intensification during the day today, but I would watch the overnight period tonight for the next major step down in pressure based on some of Jason Dunion's preliminary work on diurnal processes. I think a major hurricane landfall is a distinct possibility. This has a lot of time left... Ominious post coming from one of the best tropical minds on the board, imho. Thanks for the update, been busy and haven't been up to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Still a 305 heading. SW section of the CDO seems to be warming quite a bit on IR. It's been 305-306 since the first fix of this recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 For anyone feeling a bit bored, check out the NCAR WRF-ARW forecast for Ernesto. It will not dissapoint. That is certainly an extreme solution: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Agree 100%. In fact, I would argue that there are three outflow channels, one enhanced by the upper low in the southern Gulf, one enhanced by the upper low just east of the Bahamas, and the third on the south side possibly being enhanced by the passage of the Kelvin wave. Ernesto has great dynamical support aloft. The ocean heat content is quite high as well, although not quite as high as further north. The inner core structure looks good too in microwave, with a eye confirmed on visible and by recon. RI doesn't tend to happen in a straight line, it's usually more like a staircase. Thus, we may not actually see much intensification during the day today, but I would watch the overnight period tonight for the next major step down in pressure based on some of Jason Dunion's preliminary work on diurnal processes. I think a major hurricane landfall is a distinct possibility. This has a lot of time left... Where do you think landfall will occur-- N or S of the BZ/MX border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Black line is the forecasted track from the NHC, the red line is the path of the center over the last few hours. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 That is certainly an extreme solution: Ya for sure a cat 3 chugging towards brownsville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 That is certainly an extreme solution: Indeed. The extremely interesting thing is that this model picked up on Ernesto loosing all of its convection and having to completely rebuild. I've been using it since about 2009 or so and it gets about a "meh" from me. If you are really bored, take a look at the archived runs. Showed a C5 in the central GOM not too long ago (I'd reccomend the simulated OLR for that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Agree 100%. In fact, I would argue that there are three outflow channels, one enhanced by the upper low in the southern Gulf, one enhanced by the upper low just east of the Bahamas, and the third on the south side possibly being enhanced by the passage of the Kelvin wave. Ernesto has great dynamical support aloft. The ocean heat content is quite high as well, although not quite as high as further north. The inner core structure looks good too in microwave, with a eye confirmed on visible and by recon. RI doesn't tend to happen in a straight line, it's usually more like a staircase. Thus, we may not actually see much intensification during the day today, but I would watch the overnight period tonight for the next major step down in pressure based on some of Jason Dunion's preliminary work on diurnal processes. I think a major hurricane landfall is a distinct possibility. This has a lot of time left... I just was looking at the water vapor loops and noticed the multiple outflow channels as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 URNT12 KNHC 061736 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012 A. 06/17:05:30Z B. 16 deg 12 min N 080 deg 56 min W C. 850 mb 1405 m D. 39 kt E. 135 deg 11 nm F. 200 deg 41 kt G. 134 deg 60 nm H. 996 mb I. 14 C / 1567 m J. 21 C / 1467 m K. 17 C / NA L. OPEN NW M. C15 N. 12345 / 8 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 22 MAX FL WIND 66 KT E QUAD 14:47:30Z MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 52 KT NW QUAD 17:15:00Z GOOD RADAR SIGNATURE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Agree 100%. In fact, I would argue that there are three outflow channels, one enhanced by the upper low in the southern Gulf, one enhanced by the upper low just east of the Bahamas, and the third on the south side possibly being enhanced by the passage of the Kelvin wave. Ernesto has great dynamical support aloft. The ocean heat content is quite high as well, although not quite as high as further north. The inner core structure looks good too in microwave, with a eye confirmed on visible and by recon. RI doesn't tend to happen in a straight line, it's usually more like a staircase. Thus, we may not actually see much intensification during the day today, but I would watch the overnight period tonight for the next major step down in pressure based on some of Jason Dunion's preliminary work on diurnal processes. I think a major hurricane landfall is a distinct possibility. This has a lot of time left... I agree, there is a distinct chance it can make it to major hurricane status. I am also curious to see how far north this storm gets. The stronger convection has been in the NE quadrant of the storm which might have been influencing its storm motion over the past 6 hours. At the storms current heading, it will strike well north of Belize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 URNT12 KNHC 061736 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012 A. 06/17:05:30Z B. 16 deg 12 min N 080 deg 56 min W C. 850 mb 1405 m D. 39 kt E. 135 deg 11 nm F. 200 deg 41 kt G. 134 deg 60 nm H. 996 mb I. 14 C / 1567 m J. 21 C / 1467 m K. 17 C / NA L. OPEN NW M. C15 N. 12345 / 8 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 22 MAX FL WIND 66 KT E QUAD 14:47:30Z MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 52 KT NW QUAD 17:15:00Z GOOD RADAR SIGNATURE You think its going through an ERC or just dry air intrusion with diurnal min? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Ernesto moving into ideal shear tendancies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Where do you think landfall will occur-- N or S of the BZ/MX border? Leaning towards north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Leaning towards north. Cool, thanks. I'm trying to figure out whether to head into BZE or CUN. I'm tending toward CUN and then driving S from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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