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Tropical Depression Ernesto - 35 mph - 1004 mb - W 14 mph


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Agreed... The good news (for Josh's sake) is that we have at least another 36-48 hours at this current heading and speed before landfall. That is plenty of time for development in the West Caribbean.

Yeah, I went for RI [Edit:] potential tomorrow afternoon in my forecast this morning based on the KW moving through. That would be a worst case for BZ/MX, though, since it wouldn't give a lot of time for warning.

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000

URNT12 KNHC 061612 CCA

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012

A. 06/16:00:30Z

B. 16 deg 01 min N

080 deg 41 min W

C. 850 mb 1409 m

D. 55 kt

E. 059 deg 25 nm

F. 156 deg 62 kt

G. 073 deg 10 nm

H. 997 mb

I. 15 C / 1557 m

J. 22 C / 1471 m

K. 16 C / NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. C15

N. 12345 / 8

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 18 CCA

MAX FL WIND 77 KT NW QUAD 13:19:00Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 31 KT SW QUAD 16:02:00Z

GOOD RADAR SIGNATURE

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Yeah, I went for RI [Edit:] potential tomorrow afternoon in my forecast this morning based on the KW moving through. That would be a worst case for BZ/MX, though, since it wouldn't give a lot of time for warning.

I'm thinking RI is more likely than not at this point. In addition to the CCKW, we also have duel outflow channels developing. One to its northeast (over the Bahamas), another to its northwest (Gulf of Mexico) that should enhance poleward outflow. The CCKW will enhance equator-ward outflow. The storm is also smaller than average currently, which also bodes well for rapid intensity changes. Its amazing how far this system has come in 24 hours. It sorta reminds me of Gustav (2008) which looked very poorly organized after its interaction with Haiti, and then one very nice diurnal max reestablished the inner core.

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Agree 100%. In fact, I would argue that there are three outflow channels, one enhanced by the upper low in the southern Gulf, one enhanced by the upper low just east of the Bahamas, and the third on the south side possibly being enhanced by the passage of the Kelvin wave. Ernesto has great dynamical support aloft. The ocean heat content is quite high as well, although not quite as high as further north. The inner core structure looks good too in microwave, with a eye confirmed on visible and by recon.

RI doesn't tend to happen in a straight line, it's usually more like a staircase. Thus, we may not actually see much intensification during the day today, but I would watch the overnight period tonight for the next major step down in pressure based on some of Jason Dunion's preliminary work on diurnal processes.

I think a major hurricane landfall is a distinct possibility. This has a lot of time left...

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Agree 100%. In fact, I would argue that there are three outflow channels, one enhanced by the upper low in the southern Gulf, one enhanced by the upper low just east of the Bahamas, and the third on the south side possibly being enhanced by the passage of the Kelvin wave. Ernesto has great dynamical support aloft. The ocean heat content is quite high as well, although not quite as high as further north. The inner core structure looks good too in microwave, with a eye confirmed on visible and by recon.

RI doesn't tend to happen in a straight line, it's usually more like a staircase. Thus, we may not actually see much intensification during the day today, but I would watch the overnight period tonight for the next major step down in pressure based on some of Jason Dunion's preliminary work on diurnal processes.

I think a major hurricane landfall is a distinct possibility. This has a lot of time left...

Ominious post coming from one of the best tropical minds on the board, imho.

Thanks for the update, been busy and haven't been up to date.

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Agree 100%. In fact, I would argue that there are three outflow channels, one enhanced by the upper low in the southern Gulf, one enhanced by the upper low just east of the Bahamas, and the third on the south side possibly being enhanced by the passage of the Kelvin wave. Ernesto has great dynamical support aloft. The ocean heat content is quite high as well, although not quite as high as further north. The inner core structure looks good too in microwave, with a eye confirmed on visible and by recon.

RI doesn't tend to happen in a straight line, it's usually more like a staircase. Thus, we may not actually see much intensification during the day today, but I would watch the overnight period tonight for the next major step down in pressure based on some of Jason Dunion's preliminary work on diurnal processes.

I think a major hurricane landfall is a distinct possibility. This has a lot of time left...

Where do you think landfall will occur-- N or S of the BZ/MX border?

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That is certainly an extreme solution:

Indeed.

The extremely interesting thing is that this model picked up on Ernesto loosing all of its convection and having to completely rebuild. I've been using it since about 2009 or so and it gets about a "meh" from me.

If you are really bored, take a look at the archived runs. Showed a C5 in the central GOM not too long ago (I'd reccomend the simulated OLR for that)

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Agree 100%. In fact, I would argue that there are three outflow channels, one enhanced by the upper low in the southern Gulf, one enhanced by the upper low just east of the Bahamas, and the third on the south side possibly being enhanced by the passage of the Kelvin wave. Ernesto has great dynamical support aloft. The ocean heat content is quite high as well, although not quite as high as further north. The inner core structure looks good too in microwave, with a eye confirmed on visible and by recon.

RI doesn't tend to happen in a straight line, it's usually more like a staircase. Thus, we may not actually see much intensification during the day today, but I would watch the overnight period tonight for the next major step down in pressure based on some of Jason Dunion's preliminary work on diurnal processes.

I think a major hurricane landfall is a distinct possibility. This has a lot of time left...

I just was looking at the water vapor loops and noticed the multiple outflow channels as well.

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URNT12 KNHC 061736

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012

A. 06/17:05:30Z

B. 16 deg 12 min N

080 deg 56 min W

C. 850 mb 1405 m

D. 39 kt

E. 135 deg 11 nm

F. 200 deg 41 kt

G. 134 deg 60 nm

H. 996 mb

I. 14 C / 1567 m

J. 21 C / 1467 m

K. 17 C / NA

L. OPEN NW

M. C15

N. 12345 / 8

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 22

MAX FL WIND 66 KT E QUAD 14:47:30Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 52 KT NW QUAD 17:15:00Z

GOOD RADAR SIGNATURE

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Agree 100%. In fact, I would argue that there are three outflow channels, one enhanced by the upper low in the southern Gulf, one enhanced by the upper low just east of the Bahamas, and the third on the south side possibly being enhanced by the passage of the Kelvin wave. Ernesto has great dynamical support aloft. The ocean heat content is quite high as well, although not quite as high as further north. The inner core structure looks good too in microwave, with a eye confirmed on visible and by recon.

RI doesn't tend to happen in a straight line, it's usually more like a staircase. Thus, we may not actually see much intensification during the day today, but I would watch the overnight period tonight for the next major step down in pressure based on some of Jason Dunion's preliminary work on diurnal processes.

I think a major hurricane landfall is a distinct possibility. This has a lot of time left...

I agree, there is a distinct chance it can make it to major hurricane status. I am also curious to see how far north this storm gets. The stronger convection has been in the NE quadrant of the storm which might have been influencing its storm motion over the past 6 hours. At the storms current heading, it will strike well north of Belize.

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URNT12 KNHC 061736

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012

A. 06/17:05:30Z

B. 16 deg 12 min N

080 deg 56 min W

C. 850 mb 1405 m

D. 39 kt

E. 135 deg 11 nm

F. 200 deg 41 kt

G. 134 deg 60 nm

H. 996 mb

I. 14 C / 1567 m

J. 21 C / 1467 m

K. 17 C / NA

L. OPEN NW

M. C15

N. 12345 / 8

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 22

MAX FL WIND 66 KT E QUAD 14:47:30Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 52 KT NW QUAD 17:15:00Z

GOOD RADAR SIGNATURE

You think its going through an ERC or just dry air intrusion with diurnal min?
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