Srain Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 It actually seems to be gaining some. At least the last VDM had it much further N, at 15.5 or 15.6N. Splash Location: 15.74N 80.18W 994mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 It actually seems to be gaining some. At least the last VDM had it much further N, at 15.5 or 15.6N. Can you get a flight today to Belize City? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 The Euro taketh away and the Euro giveth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 I really dislike this system. Recon finds a rapidly organizing 6 mile wide eye and 77 knot FL winds right under the convection. Should be a nice MX storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Can you get a flight today to Belize City? Discussions are happening. Remember, this is the main thread-- don't want to bore folks that don't care about my chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 This is a game changer... None of the models had the system becoming vertically aligned last night. Instead the system is developing a strong inner core and rapid intensification is ongoing. We could have a hurricane later today. Ernesto has some fight left in him after all! Also this is WAY of the forecast track currently. Its moving way slower than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Looking through some recon obs, and that core is impressive. Such a tight pressure/wind gradient. This isn't the same storm that I was watching 48 hours ago. TBH, I accidently saw a sat picture this morning and just logged on here to check what was up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 13:44Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302) Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012 Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 8 Observation Number: 10 A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 13:17:00Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°43'N 80°10'W (15.7167N 80.1667W) B. Center Fix Location: 261 miles (420 km) to the SSE (162°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR). C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,381m (4,531ft) at 850mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 235° at 54kts (From the SW at ~ 62.1mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,538m (5,046ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,400m (4,593ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Closed Wall M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 850mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the east quadrant at 12:05:30Z Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 13:19:00Z Radar Signature: Good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conclue Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Really alligned nicely overnight didn't it? Looks far healthier than yesterday. However I was on vacation and haven't really followed him since generation which is usually what I do with every storm during the season. I guess the question is now what is forecasted in the upper levels for Ernesto? I read yesterday there was a trough moving through; since ernesto is stacked now his he being re-steered? I should just go look it up, being lazy this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 This is pretty crazy. People were calling it an open wave yesterday and calling it a fail, and 12 hours later it's nearly a cat 1 hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 We are seeing the transition from the convectively suppressed state of an eastward propagating Kelvin wave to the convectively active phase of a subsequent Kelvin wave. These are the types of transitions that throw models off, and you occassionally see RI during these transitions. *Edit: Further, note that Florence is under the superposition with the convectively suppressed Kelvin wave.* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Recon may have missed the center on the last set of obs. Lowest pressure was 996.5 along with 29 knots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Recon may have missed the center on the last set of obs. Lowest pressure was 996.5 along with 29 knots A general rule of thumb is to subtract 1 mb for every 10 kt, so we can do a rough extrapolation and get 993.5 mb, which would round to 994. That having been said, this system has a very small core, so the gradient in that center could be tighter than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 A general rule of thumb is to subtract 1 mb for every 10 kt, so we can do a rough extrapolation and get 993.5 mb, which would round to 994. That having been said, this system has a very small core, so the gradient in that center could be tighter than normal. There were multiple +65 knot SFMR obs in about 0.5-0.6" per hour rain rates. That could be enough for the upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ALLEN...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL. THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 It's clearly healthier, but I'd hold off on RI forecasts for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Wow, talk about unexpected rapid intensification. In addition to items mentioned above by Phil, et al., I'm encouraged that Ernesto has lost nearly half of its forward speed since yesterday. I think we can start to see a turn to the WNW soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 14:50Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302) Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012 Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 8 Observation Number: 14 A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 14:36:30Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°51'N 80°26'W (15.85N 80.4333W) B. Center Fix Location: 247 miles (397 km) to the SSE (165°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR). C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,402m (4,600ft) at 850mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the WNW (293°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 29° at 51kts (From the NNE at ~ 58.7mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the WNW (286°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,556m (5,105ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,510m (4,954ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Closed Wall M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped) M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 90° to 270° (E to W) M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 10 nautical miles M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 5 nautical miles N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 850mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 13:19:00Z Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 66kts (~ 76.0mph) in the east quadrant at 14:47:30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Any thoughts on whether that ridge can weaken enough to pull this farther north? Seems like the guidance is a little thin right now considering the storm is stronger than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Now we wait for the 12z Globals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Any thoughts on whether that ridge can weaken enough to pull this farther north? Seems like the guidance is a little thin right now considering the storm is stronger than modeled. Looking at CIMSS steering at different levels, and 6Z GFS 500 mb forecasts next few days, even stronger, it won't be a big change off of WNW, in my amateur opinion. Or, unless GFS 500 mb forecasts completely whack, BRO is still safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Based on the newest recon pass ending at 1601Z and the satellite... it looks like Ernesto has stabilized a bit and halted strengthening for the moment... possibly has even pulled back a bit from where it was a few passes ago. This could be a case of the diurnal minimum coming in place. It will be interesting to see what Ernesto does later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Based on the newest recon pass ending at 1601Z and the satellite... it looks like Ernesto has stabilized a bit and halted strengthening for the moment... possibly has even pulled back a bit from where it was a few passes ago. This could be a case of the diurnal minimum coming in place. It will be interesting to see what Ernesto does later. The tiny core it spun up earlier is probably broadening a bit. You can see a double wind maxima structure to its NE on the last recon pass. That said, the structure of Ernesto is light years better than yesterday at this time, and the current organization and intensity argue that we could see a robust hurricane out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 000 URNT12 KNHC 061612 CCA VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012 A. 06/16:00:30Z B. 16 deg 01 min N 080 deg 41 min W C. 850 mb 1409 m D. 55 kt E. 059 deg 25 nm F. 156 deg 62 kt G. 073 deg 10 nm H. 997 mb I. 15 C / 1557 m J. 22 C / 1471 m K. 16 C / NA L. CLOSED WALL M. C15 N. 12345 / 8 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 18 CCA MAX FL WIND 77 KT NW QUAD 13:19:00Z MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 31 KT SW QUAD 16:02:00Z GOOD RADAR SIGNATURE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Hmmm, pressure might be back up a few mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 New AMSU. Still not a robust closed eyewall. I'll be interested to see what the SATCON analysis shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Glad the nasa page is back operational... its been out for the last 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 The tiny core it spun up earlier is probably broadening a bit. You can see a double wind maxima structure to its NE on the last recon pass. That said, the structure of Ernesto is light years better than yesterday at this time, and the current organization and intensity argue that we could see a robust hurricane out of this. Yeah, looks like that's a part of it too. Definitely some diurnal minimum influence, but also some more internal structure reorganisation. The good news is that Ernesto is maintaining a good radar signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 New AMSU. Still not a robust closed eyewall. I'll be interested to see what the SATCON analysis shows. It shows up somewhat better on the color composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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