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Tropical Depression Ernesto - 35 mph - 1004 mb - W 14 mph


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This is a game changer... None of the models had the system becoming vertically aligned last night. Instead the system is developing a strong inner core and rapid intensification is ongoing. We could have a hurricane later today. Ernesto has some fight left in him after all!

Also this is WAY of the forecast track currently. Its moving way slower than expected.

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 13:44Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)

Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012

Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 8 seeall.png

Observation Number: 10

A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 13:17:00Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°43'N 80°10'W (15.7167N 80.1667W) viewmap.png

B. Center Fix Location: 261 miles (420 km) to the SSE (162°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,381m (4,531ft) at 850mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 235° at 54kts (From the SW at ~ 62.1mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,538m (5,046ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,400m (4,593ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Closed Wall

M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 850mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the east quadrant at 12:05:30Z

Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 13:19:00Z

Radar Signature: Good

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Really alligned nicely overnight didn't it? Looks far healthier than yesterday. However I was on vacation and haven't really followed him since generation which is usually what I do with every storm during the season. I guess the question is now what is forecasted in the upper levels for Ernesto? I read yesterday there was a trough moving through; since ernesto is stacked now his he being re-steered? I should just go look it up, being lazy this morning.

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We are seeing the transition from the convectively suppressed state of an eastward propagating Kelvin wave to the convectively active phase of a subsequent Kelvin wave. These are the types of transitions that throw models off, and you occassionally see RI during these transitions. *Edit: Further, note that Florence is under the superposition with the convectively suppressed Kelvin wave.*

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Recon may have missed the center on the last set of obs.

Lowest pressure was 996.5 along with 29 knots

A general rule of thumb is to subtract 1 mb for every 10 kt, so we can do a rough extrapolation and get 993.5 mb, which would round to 994.

That having been said, this system has a very small core, so the gradient in that center could be tighter than normal.

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A general rule of thumb is to subtract 1 mb for every 10 kt, so we can do a rough extrapolation and get 993.5 mb, which would round to 994.

That having been said, this system has a very small core, so the gradient in that center could be tighter than normal.

There were multiple +65 knot SFMR obs in about 0.5-0.6" per hour rain rates. That could be enough for the upgrade.

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CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST

COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA

ALLEN...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF PUNTA

ALLEN TO TULUM. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE

COAST OF BELIZE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL

STORM WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN.

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 14:50Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)

Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012

Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 8 seeall.png

Observation Number: 14

A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 14:36:30Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°51'N 80°26'W (15.85N 80.4333W) viewmap.png

B. Center Fix Location: 247 miles (397 km) to the SSE (165°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,402m (4,600ft) at 850mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the WNW (293°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 29° at 51kts (From the NNE at ~ 58.7mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the WNW (286°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,556m (5,105ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,510m (4,954ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Closed Wall

M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)

M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 90° to 270° (E to W)

M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 10 nautical miles

M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 5 nautical miles

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 850mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 13:19:00Z

Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 66kts (~ 76.0mph) in the east quadrant at 14:47:30Z

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Any thoughts on whether that ridge can weaken enough to pull this farther north? Seems like the guidance is a little thin right now considering the storm is stronger than modeled.

Looking at CIMSS steering at different levels, and 6Z GFS 500 mb forecasts next few days, even stronger, it won't be a big change off of WNW, in my amateur opinion. Or, unless GFS 500 mb forecasts completely whack, BRO is still safe.

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Based on the newest recon pass ending at 1601Z and the satellite... it looks like Ernesto has stabilized a bit and halted strengthening for the moment... possibly has even pulled back a bit from where it was a few passes ago. This could be a case of the diurnal minimum coming in place. It will be interesting to see what Ernesto does later.

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Based on the newest recon pass ending at 1601Z and the satellite... it looks like Ernesto has stabilized a bit and halted strengthening for the moment... possibly has even pulled back a bit from where it was a few passes ago. This could be a case of the diurnal minimum coming in place. It will be interesting to see what Ernesto does later.

The tiny core it spun up earlier is probably broadening a bit. You can see a double wind maxima structure to its NE on the last recon pass. That said, the structure of Ernesto is light years better than yesterday at this time, and the current organization and intensity argue that we could see a robust hurricane out of this.

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000

URNT12 KNHC 061612 CCA

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012

A. 06/16:00:30Z

B. 16 deg 01 min N

080 deg 41 min W

C. 850 mb 1409 m

D. 55 kt

E. 059 deg 25 nm

F. 156 deg 62 kt

G. 073 deg 10 nm

H. 997 mb

I. 15 C / 1557 m

J. 22 C / 1471 m

K. 16 C / NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. C15

N. 12345 / 8

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 18 CCA

MAX FL WIND 77 KT NW QUAD 13:19:00Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 31 KT SW QUAD 16:02:00Z

GOOD RADAR SIGNATURE

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The tiny core it spun up earlier is probably broadening a bit. You can see a double wind maxima structure to its NE on the last recon pass. That said, the structure of Ernesto is light years better than yesterday at this time, and the current organization and intensity argue that we could see a robust hurricane out of this.

Yeah, looks like that's a part of it too. Definitely some diurnal minimum influence, but also some more internal structure reorganisation. The good news is that Ernesto is maintaining a good radar signature.

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