Ginx snewx Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Wow globals nailed this as most expected they would. Another storm for the OT NTSC thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Yea I'm not quite ready to write this off yet. Bot the GFS and ECMWF show the storm reorganizing before landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. Things are pretty dire though. Yeah, it's ironic that now the Euro shows it coming together somewhat before the Yucatan-- just when it looks like it's dead. I also noticed the 12Z Euro backed off of the BoC scenario-- there's nothing much happening after the Yucatan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Yea I'm not quite ready to write this off yet. Bot the GFS and ECMWF show the storm reorganizing before landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. Things are pretty dire though. Yes, it is kind of amusing that many of the same people who were poo pooing the global trends of weakening when it was looking so good on satellite are the same ones poo pooing any chance of reorganization when the globals show quite a bit better organized system by the time it gets to the Yucatan. The EC implies the low level circ will slow down quite a bit over the next couple of days and gets a chance to intensify. Looks like it gets down close to 1000 mb in the model, which is way deeper than it showed at any point over the last few days. I am certainly not arguing that it looks pretty feeble in satellite right now, but if it could avoid the northern coast of Honduras, that NW Caribbean has helped a lot of system over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Yeah, it's ironic that now the Euro shows it coming together somewhat before the Yucatan-- just when it looks like it's dead. I also noticed the 12Z Euro backed off of the BoC scenario-- there's nothing much happening after the Yucatan. Euro bombs it in the Epac. Cabo has a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Yes, it is kind of amusing that many of the same people who were poo pooing the global trends of weakening when it was looking so good on satellite are the same ones poo pooing any chance of reorganization when the globals show quite a bit better organized system by the time it gets to the Yucatan. The EC implies the low level circ will slow down quite a bit over the next couple of days and gets a chance to intensify. Looks like it gets down close to 1000 mb in the model, which is way deeper than it showed at any point over the last few days. I am certainly not arguing that it looks pretty feeble in satellite right now, but if it could avoid the northern coast of Honduras, that NW Caribbean has helped a lot of system over the years. I think the land interaction on the GFS is extremely unrealistic, I doubt it's just going to keep chugging along north of Honduras. Frictional convergence will probably pull it in and that'll be the end. http://moe.met.fsu.e...&hour=Animation The fact that the GFS has the vortex crossing Mexico into the East Pacific shows that it's being ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Starting to make a comeback with convection re-firing closer to the center of circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 It better get some north movement soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Finally, as Ernesto has slowed down today its circulation is now well established with low-level westerly flow. Winds are not terribly strong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsouth Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Finally, as Ernesto has slowed down today its circulation is now well established with low-level westerly flow. Winds are not terribly strong though. The low-level background flow has finally subsided enough for the vortex to appear in the earth-relative sense. Interesting part is that the winds will likely weaken (note no 50 knots winds on the way in) until (and if) the inner core gets established, since there is no 20-25 knot background flow to boost the winds on the north side anymore. So we're probably dealing with a 35 knot (if that) tropical storm now versus last night's 50 knot tropical wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Failnesto™ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Failnesto™ Nope. Just a sacrificial wave. Something needed to sweep out all that dust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Failnesto™ ©The Bane of Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 FWIW the latest recon/sondes say that the LLC and MLC are still disconnected. Nope. Just a sacrificial wave. Something needed to sweep out all that dust... Go big or go home* *Central America Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 FWIW the latest recon/sondes say that the LLC and MLC are still disconnected. I'd say by tomorrow's flight they find much better vertical alignment. Shear has relaxed quite a bit, and there's still a chance at Ernesto obtaining hurricane status before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Ernesto is trying to make a final push toward organization. The biggest thing is at the 11 pm advisory the speed was down to 15 mph, down almost 10 mph from yesterday. Secondly, the pressure is down to 1003 mb according to the lastest recon flight with winds still at 50 mph. The lastest IR images are more than promising, showing a convective burst near the center which is not naked anymore. the low and mid level centers are not yet aligned but its a start! DAMN I LOVE THAT IR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Omg, is that convective banding I see? Is it trying to spin up now? What a criminal c*cktease this one has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Omg, is that convective banding I see? Is it trying to spin up now? What a criminal c*cktease this one has been. Not sure if I want to buy the trend just yet. If the center is under the convection, then the circulation has essentially stalled over the last 6 hours. A TRMM pass did catch some convective banding, but it does not conclusively prove the center is underneath the deep convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 hard to tell w/o vis, but I think center is not exposed, and -80ºC temps just East of center, if it doesn't get pulled into CA passing so close to the North, I think it can still become a hurricane before Belize. Glass 8/16th half full optimistic. Recon inbound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Heh...997 extrapolated and under the deep convective ball... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 No inner core yet, but much better convective signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 12:33Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302) Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012 Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 8 Observation Number: 06 A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 12:13:30Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°34'N 79°59'W (15.5667N 79.9833W) B. Center Fix Location: 270 miles (434 km) to the SW (232°) from Kingston, Jamaica. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,412m (4,633ft) at 850mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 170° at 55kts (From the S at ~ 63.3mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the E (100°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,469m (4,820ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Closed Wall M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 850mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the east quadrant at 12:05:30Z Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the east quadrant at 12:14:30Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 0 nautical miles to the SSW (211°) from the flight level center Radar Signature: Good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Probably the best VDM yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Nice, closed wall. We might have something after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Now the pressure decides to drop. I guess it was waiting for everyone to write it off. Oh and cangrats HWRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Next MW image is going to be telling given that VDM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Sweet... I love the NW Caribbean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 994.5 extrap now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Sweet... I love the NW Caribbean except for SlopgyresTM... fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Get some latitude, please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Get some latitude, please... It actually seems to be gaining some. At least the last VDM had it much further N, at 15.5 or 15.6N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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