HurricaneJosh Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 The 5 am EDT forecast is a slight buzzkill. OK, off to bed with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 meh...probably gonna wait and see how it's doing when it gets past the graveyard and into the Western Carib. Wouldn't shock me if 5 fizzled into a wave later on today or tomorrow. At this point, I really don't think the US looks like a threat from this if it gets its act together...this is Central America or the Yucatan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 meh...probably gonna wait and see how it's doing when it gets past the graveyard and into the Western Carib. Wouldn't shock me if 5 fizzled into a wave later on today or tomorrow. At this point, I really don't think the US looks like a threat from this if it gets its act together...this is Central America or the Yucatan. Agreed, this looks like a solid Caribbean Cruiser, trackwise, if it survives. I'm hoping for a Yucatan path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 2, 2012 Author Share Posted August 2, 2012 It's hanging on this morning. Microwave imagery still suggests it has a robust circulation with convection on its southern flank. It's also not accelerating out of the convective plume that has developed over it. Well see if it can hang on the next 24-36 hour which will probably be the most hostile conditions of its lifetime. Finally the center thus far is staying south of 13N. This is also a good sign for its short term survival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Well see if it can hang on the next 24-36 hour which will probably be the most hostile conditions of its lifetime. This weekend looks pretty rough too. I wouldn't be surprised to see a naked swirl running out ahead of the convective canopy this weekend in the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 2, 2012 Author Share Posted August 2, 2012 This weekend looks pretty rough too. I wouldn't be surprised to see a naked swirl running out ahead of the convective canopy this weekend in the Caribbean. I'm seeing much more favorable 250 hPa flow over the western Carribean by then Compared to right now with the upper level trough overhead. It's actually doing remarkably well considering the shear it's facing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 I'm seeing much more favorable 250 hPa flow over the western Carribean by then Yeah, but check out the 925mb flow. It's ripping at 20-25 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 2, 2012 Author Share Posted August 2, 2012 Yeah, but check out the 925mb flow. It's ripping at 20-25 kts. But the 250 hPa flow is 15-25 knots... So the net shear should be low. Perhaps the 300-350 hPa level is undercutting this? Actually the strangest thing right now is the GFS forecasting binary interaction with the disturbance to its SW. The low level vorticity fields look very messy in the W Carribean as the features merge. That to me seems like the most limiting feature right now when the storm enters the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 But the 250 hPa flow is 15-25 knots... So the net shear should be low. Perhaps the 300-350 hPa level is undercutting this? Actually the strangest thing right now is the GFS forecasting binary interaction with the disturbance to its SW. The low level vorticity fields look very messy in the W Carribean as the features merge. That to me seems like the most limiting feature right now when the storm enters the Caribbean. Soundings out of Guadeloupe and San Juan this morning argue that there is shear somewhere in the profile. It's really hard to sustain a 20-25 kt wind throughout the column and have no "integrated" shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 2, 2012 Author Share Posted August 2, 2012 You can actually see the system I'm alluding too on microwave to the SW. It does have some broad turning and could play a role in keeping TD#5 on a more westward path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Yup, that SFC to 700 hPa shear is the killer here, not the typical 850 to 250 hPa shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 2, 2012 Author Share Posted August 2, 2012 Soundings out of Guadeloupe and San Juan this morning argue that there is shear somewhere in the profile. It's really hard to sustain a 20-25 kt wind throughout the column and have no "integrated" shear. Of course. Both of those soundings are from 00z though. I wonder how these profiles will change in the next 24/36 hours as the CCKW continues to propagate further east. Those easterly winds should start to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 For the laymen, will this survive the next 3 days? SHIPs holds out hope, if only it can survive Edit for bonus question, is Guadeloupe really that dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Im pretty impressed that this still has a low level circulation. With the way it was getting blasted last night in addition to the complete lack of convection...I thought that I was going to wake up to a remnant low. With the way that some are describing the the low level easterlies, it seems that this system is destined to struggle most of its life, if not all of it. The NHC will likely scrub at least one recon mission today. Sent from my 4G 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 2, 2012 Author Share Posted August 2, 2012 Yup, that SFC to 700 hPa shear is the killer here, not the typical 850 to 250 hPa shear. Both of those soundings show deep easterlies through 600 hPa. Not sure what you mean by SFC to 700 hPa shear. Im pretty impressed that this still has a low level circulation. With the way it was getting blasted last night in addition to the complete lack of convection...I thought that I was going to wake up to a remnant low. With the way that some are describing the the low level easterlies, it seems that this system is destined to struggle most of its life, if not all of it. The NHC will likely scrub at least one recon mission today. Sent from my 4G 2 They probably won't cancel a recon mission if they are trying to confirm that the TD has a closed circulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Both of those soundings show deep easterlies through 600 hPa. Not sure what you mean by SFC to 700 hPa shear. They probably won't cancel a recon mission if they are trying to confirm that the TD has a closed circulation The SFC to 700 hPa shear roughly equals the SFC to 600 hPa shear, but I prefer measuring from the low levels to the bottom of a jet stream (not the top) when calculating things like that. But is that what you were asking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Convection has recently flared with 05L. It may be temporary, as there is still 10-20 kt. Shear over the tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Shear is a little less than what was yesterday, and convection has responded, covering most of the CoC. Upper levels are weakly easterly now, with the low levels nearing 20kts, in the same direction...so net shear is closer to 15 kts, which is slightly conducive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 I really don't have any way of saying this with certainty, but by the way the 12z SHIPS depicts the future enviorment ahead of 05L, I'd hazard a guess that it's roughest times will be in the next 24-36 hours. LGEM takes this up to 88 knots at the end of the run, with the SHIPS at 75 knots. It still worries me that Phil is speaking very strongly about the easterlies, but we'll see what happens. The semi-accurate CIMSS shear analysis looks much improved from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 It looks like some of the models are seeing the weakness in the Gulf in the form of a couple of upper level troughs and doing the NW bend by d5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 There are some pretty impressive 600-800mb winds to the north of the circulation. (Those "dots" are Tropical Overshooting Tops) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Buoy reporting 36 mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Given the MW presentation, I wouldn't be shocked if the plane finds TS Ernesto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 "AFTER LOOKING VERY DISORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A MARGINALLY BETTER STRUCTURE WITH EVIDENCE OF INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING." Tropical cyclones do have a diurnal cycle signature in convection. Jasaon Dunion's most recent work shows that you will often see convection weaken beginning right at sunset and remain in a "suppressed" state through night. Sometimes you get this radially propagating ring of cold cloud tops away from the center of the storm, which has preferable distances from the storm depending on the UTC time. As the sun comes back up- the convection reorganizes near the center of the storm. I'm surprised no one talks about this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Seems to be slowly organizing (Although you really couldn't get a worse looking presentation than last night) Recon is tasked to have 'wheels up' at 11:30am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 "AFTER LOOKING VERY DISORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A MARGINALLY BETTER STRUCTURE WITH EVIDENCE OF INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING." Tropical cyclones do have a diurnal cycle signature in convection. Jasaon Dunion's most recent work shows that you will often see convection weaken beginning right at sunset and remain in a "suppressed" state through night. Sometimes you get this radially propagating ring of cold cloud tops away from the center of the storm, which has preferable distances from the storm depending on the UTC time. As the sun comes back up- the convection reorganizes near the center of the storm. I'm surprised no one talks about this... How recent is that research? Do you have a link? It's not been publicized on the TS mailing list and I missed the 2012 conference at Sawgrass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 The SFC to 700 hPa shear roughly equals the SFC to 600 hPa shear, but I prefer measuring from the low levels to the bottom of a jet stream (not the top) when calculating things like that. But is that what you were asking? Good morning turtle. I'm confused (scientifically) by your post. Perhaps you or another might clear things up for me. You mention "SFC to 600 hPa" then refer to "the bottom of the jet stream." As I understand things, the jet stream is around 300 hPa in winter and 200 hPa in summer. Of course we have Low Level Jets too but I'll ignore them for this case. Would one typically (or ever) find the bottom of the jet stream anywhere near 600 hPa? From my amateur understanding the bottom of the jet should be around 400 hPa. Additionally, when looking at the soundings posted earlier, I don't a jet stream, unless 10-15 kts qualifies as a "jet stream." Is it in meteorology that the jet stream is defined by hPa regardless of wind speeds or is it defined by an area of unusually high winds? I've always thought of the jet stream as an area of actual wind but perhaps in science it's technically a height regardless of wind speed? Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Visiteur Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 How recent is that research? Do you have a link? It's not been publicized on the TS mailing list and I missed the 2012 conference at Sawgrass. Speaking as another Albany person, I have seen this myself, it's Jason's current work. I don't believe this work has been published yet, but there may be a paper in review. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 How recent is that research? Do you have a link? It's not been publicized on the TS mailing list and I missed the 2012 conference at Sawgrass. It is new work so I dont believe a publication has been submitted just yet. I know there is one brewing though. And no, he hasn't made it public on the t-storms list. I guess that might be a reason why no one is talking about it! My apologizes. Here's the link of his talk at the past AMS trop conf: https://ams.confex.com/ams/30Hurricane/webprogram/Paper205840.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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