sugaree Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 looks like a few new bursts are popping closer to the "center" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 500 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012 DATA FROM THE LATEST HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION INTO ERNESTO SHOWED THAT THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE RATHER DISORGANIZED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ROSE TO 1009 MB ON THE LAST FIX AND THE AIRCRAFT FOUND ONLY VERY WEAK WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN 5 KT NEAR THE CENTER. THE PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND WAS 52 KT AND THE HIGHEST SFMR WINDS WERE 40 TO 45 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT. WHILE THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED...THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS DEGRADED OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. RAOB DATA FROM CURACAO...MODEL ANALYSES AND AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW A TONGUE OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERE IMPINGING ON ERNESTO FROM THE SOUTH. THIS DRY AIR IN COMBINATION WITH SOME MID-LEVEL SHEAR ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS MAY BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST DAY OR SO. DESPITE OTHERWISE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...THE GFDL AND HWRF NOW BOTH SHOW THE CYCLONE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SHIPS AND LGEM STILL SHOW INTENSIFICATION...BUT AT A SLOWER RATE COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS. GIVEN THESE TRENDS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT IS STILL ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER THAT TIME THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING LAND...WITH SOME RESTRENGTHENING POSSIBLE AFTER THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY 5. THE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT PASSES THROUGH THE CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS... SHOWED THAT ERNESTO HAS ACCELERATED BACK TOWARD THE WEST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 275/19. THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION RESULTS IN A SHIFT IN THE NHC TRACK OF ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE TO THE LEFT... OR SOUTH...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. APART FROM THIS ADJUSTMENT... THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN SLOW DOWN AND TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY 48 HOURS AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE WEAKNESS PERSISTS OVER THE GULF. THE GFS...ECMWF... AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LIE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...SHOWING LESS OF A NORTHWARD TURN AND A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE GFDL...UKMET AND SOME OF THE HFIP MODELS...ARE FARTHER NORTH AND TAKE THE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THROUGH 72 HOURS THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HEDGES TOWARD THE USUALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 15.1N 74.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 15.3N 77.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 15.6N 80.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 16.0N 82.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 16.6N 83.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 18.5N 87.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 20.5N 91.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 21.6N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 If it takes the path indicated by NHC, Ernesto would be considerably weaker than the 70 mph indicated at 09/0600Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 5, 2012 Author Share Posted August 5, 2012 Its rather ironic that in this weak state that Ernesto presents itself, the 00z ECMWF all of a sudden has become more bullish. For the first time since the development of Ernesto it does not completely dissipate the surface circulation, and has it returning with a vengeance in the Gulf of Mexico after a respectable first landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. If Ernesto doesn't completely fall apart in the next 6-12 hours, as the low-level easterly flow relaxes we should see a return to form for the tropical cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 5, 2012 Author Share Posted August 5, 2012 While the system is obviously still disorganized... it appears the surface circulation is largely intact. With some renewed support from the ECMWF, lets see what Ernesto decides to do today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 While the system is obviously still disorganized... it appears the surface circulation is largely intact. With some renewed support from the ECMWF, lets see what Ernesto decides to do today. Extrapolating a 20 knot forward motion in the 2 hours since that M/I image was taken, the center of the latest convective blowup (centered around 15.5N 74W) is displaced about 1.5 degrees to the east.of Ernesto's center. That would put the LLC near the western edge of the CI canopy on IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 It doesn't help that Ernesto is going over 20 mph (again). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 5, 2012 Author Share Posted August 5, 2012 Good Morning Ernesto, you might want to put some clothes on before you start your day. The llc is certainly there though so it hasn't dissipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 The 00Z ensembles (GFS/Euro) certainly show some interesting solutions and raise an eyebrow. While Ernesto has struggled and the low level circulation has 'out ran' the mid level vort and dry air at the lower levels have helped to keep Ernesto in check, there are strong suggestions that a slowing down is ahead in the NW Caribbean as a mid latitude trough dives SE into the Great Lakes and Tennessee Valley. After Ernesto make land fall in the Yucatan and emerges into the Bay of Campeche is where things take a turn that could allow for improved conditions and a strengthening system that becomes vertically stacked and ramp up rather quickly. The HPC mentions the morning a feature in the NW flow dropping SE that may tug Ernesto further N. This may well be what the ensembles are 'sniffing' and cannot be discounted. The HPC even mentions a situation ala TS Debby with that U/L and should it occur, a major fly in the ointment may well be in the offing for a further NW to NNW track in the Western Gulf. We here in Texas know some strange things can happen with systems crossing the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche and one can never discount a tropical system until it is inland and dead for good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 http://www.atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin/latest.cgi?ir-e looks like ernesto's convective ball is breaking up as the center races west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 The 00Z ensembles (GFS/Euro) certainly show some interesting solutions and raise an eyebrow. While Ernesto has struggled and the low level circulation has 'out ran' the mid level vort and dry air at the lower levels have helped to keep Ernesto in check, there are strong suggestions that a slowing down is ahead in the NW Caribbean as a mid latitude trough dives SE into the Great Lakes and Tennessee Valley. After Ernesto make land fall in the Yucatan and emerges into the Bay of Campeche is where things take a turn that could allow for improved conditions and a strengthening system that becomes vertically stacked and ramp up rather quickly. The HPC mentions the morning a feature in the NW flow dropping SE that may tug Ernesto further N. This may well be what the ensembles are 'sniffing' and cannot be discounted. The HPC even mentions a situation ala TS Debby with that U/L and should it occur, a major fly in the ointment may well be in the offing for a further NW to NNW track in the Western Gulf. We here in Texas know some strange things can happen with systems crossing the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche and one can never discount a tropical system until it is inland and dead for good... my concern would be will it get into the NW caribbean? if it keeps slamming west with a naked center it wont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 5, 2012 Author Share Posted August 5, 2012 my concern would be will it get into the NW caribbean? if it keeps slamming west with a naked center it wont. Well its interesting because the center on visible is a good half degree or more north than the center they fixed on recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 First couple visible images showing Ernesto looking putrid this morning...I'm guessing the National Hurricane Center will downgrade Ernesto at 11 am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Reminds me a bit of Tropical Storm Chantal in August 2001. I remember Chantal was forecast to zoom west towards the Western Caribbean and strengthen, but never could organize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 First couple visible images showing Ernesto looking putrid this morning...I'm guessing the National Hurricane Center will downgrade Ernesto at 11 am... With 40 knot winds and a decent chance it'll start to strengthen somewhat, I doubt they'll drop advisories just to re-start possibly in 12 hours, just because West winds aren't well established, First few vis frames show an mostly exposed LLC, which is closed, at least storm relative. May be popping a new cell on the East side of the mostly exposed swirl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 12Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 My eyeball exposed LLC is about a degree North of the VDM LLC from less than 2 hours ago. I think it may be down to 1008 mb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1000 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012 VALID 12Z THU AUG 09 2012 - 12Z SUN AUG 12 2012 ...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS PERIOD... LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ERNESTO IS STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES AT A RAPID CLIP TO THE WEST. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS IT SLOWS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA IN 2-3 DAYS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ERNESTO WAVERING NEAR MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE PRESSURE MAPS BEYOND THEN MAINTAIN THAT IDEA UNTIL ITS FINAL LANDFALL IN NORTHEAST MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAD NARROWED SINCE FRIDAY...SHOWING A LANDFALL ACROSS MEXICO NORTH OF VERA CRUZ STATE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK IS NEAR AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE. IT IS WORTH NOTING...HOWEVER...THAT A MINORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE...STEER ERNESTO FARTHER NORTH. UNCERTAINTY DOES INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AND A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK IS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE IF ERNESTO BECOMES INFLUENCED BY A MID LEVEL HEIGHT WEAKNESS/TROUGH THAT TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE U.S. THEREFORE... PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTH TEXAS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 As I recently found out in teletraining for initializing TC guidance, very little of the dropsonde information ends up being used by the operational GFS/NAM/GFDL/HWRF, unless it is close to the first guess from their previous run. This applies moreso to the core upper air obs than the peripheral obs, as the NCEP guidance (including the GFDL) makes cold-core assumptions regarding various aspects of the TC, so they simply can't use the information. That is supposed to change in 2014. This isn't entirely accurate (at least in terms of the GFS and GFDL models): 1. The GFDL uses a bogus vortexing scheme (which is not a cold core assumption) 2. The GFS/GDAS uses a hybrid ensemble-var scheme now, so the increments in the tropics are primarily driven by model derived ensemble perturbations (which in the tropics, are also not cold core). Near storm observations cannot be (properly) used for a variety of reasons, notably issues of representativeness (for the GFS at least, which is currently on ~27km in horizontal resolution). I think if/when we have higher resolution, we can succussfully use such observations (even inner core observations) within the hybrid var/ens schemes (as is being explored for the 2014 HWRF implementation, and TBD for the GFS/GDAS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 It's clear that there is still some shear over Ernesto looking at the storm-relative visible loop. Notice the mid-high level cloud debris moving from left to right across the LLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Shear + decoupling. Congrats Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 I have one thing more to say about this POS storm......next! The NHC forecasts have been way to aggressive and they are still likely overdoing the intensity, this is going to stay weak and plow into the Belize/southern Yucatan area. 12Z GFS has the right idea. Booooring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 I have one thing more to say about this POS storm......next! The NHC forecasts have been way to aggressive and they are still likely overdoing the intensity, this is going to stay weak and plow into the Belize/southern Yucatan area. 12Z GFS has the right idea. Booooring! i agree. its slamming west and most likely will never see the BOC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Vis sat loop: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Epic collapse, looks like an upper level jet stream is slicing through where the anticyclone should be. It'll probably go due west into Central America since it has no vertical depth, but I'd wait a little bit before saying this is totally dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 5, 2012 Author Share Posted August 5, 2012 Epic collapse, looks like an upper level jet stream is slicing through where the anticyclone should be. It'll probably go due west into Central America since it has no vertical depth, but I'd wait a little bit before saying this is totally dead. Yea I'm not quite ready to write this off yet. Bot the GFS and ECMWF show the storm reorganizing before landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. Things are pretty dire though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 I'm not waiting.... he's dead.... hey NHC, if you want an interesting E storm every 4-5 years, just get rid of Ernesto and let it die a perm. death! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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