lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 RAMMB 1km Floater You da man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Nice reflectivity signature from Curacao with the coldest cloudtops. And at 300 km (180 mi), that's hitting at 30,000ft (I did the math). 50 dbz at 30k ain't bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Dry air trying to wrap into the core. Ironically western half of the CDO looks okay. Outflow has improved. All depends what the recon finds 1005MB 995MB? I'm betting 1005mb because the GFS and Euro told us so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Dry air trying to wrap into the core. Ironically western half of the CDO looks okay. Outflow has improved. All depends what the recon finds 1005MB 995MB? I'm betting 1005mb because the GFS and Euro told us so. I'd go probably halfway in between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 I'd go probably halfway in between the two. I'll say 998....how long til fix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 I'd go probably halfway in between the two. ADT says 987.6. But it was almost 15mb too high at 12z and has only dropped 2mb since, so I'd estimate 1002mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 I'll say 998....how long til fix? Plane descending now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Plane descending now... Thanks...I've got the GE recon graphics dusted off and fired up!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Plane descending now... Seems like there may be some issues tonight, as shortly after decent, the High Density Obs lost 15 datapoints (7.5 minutes worth of data). Seems to be corrected in the most recent set of observations though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Whoever said 1031mph was correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Pressure is 1009mb on that last barb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sugaree Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 wow he is looking really nice right now. Look at how far the outflow has spread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 What is it with this storm and the LLC outrunning the main convection/MLC? Ugh. Please, just stack already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsouth Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Recon still indicates Ernesto is not vertically stacked and is not intensifying. Sfc center is west of flight level center, which is likely west of the 500mb center. Until it becomes vertically aligned, it'll remain weak. However, once its able to align, watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 And 1007mb it is. Congrats models. Sorry weenies, forecasters and ADT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Yeah I wasn't feeling good about the bursting pattern all day today, whereas yesterday I was feeling more optimistic because of the lack of bursting. The reason the burst is there in the first place is the tilt of the vortex, because when the vortex tilts, it focuses all the vertical motion all in one spot, away from the low level center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 I'm never a fan of 5 or 6ºC spread between T and Td either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Models are convinced that the tilting will only increase in the next 24 hr. Can't see this getting vertically stacked anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 if Ernesto can stack up, he could get ramped up really quickly in that warm water... in fact I'm kinda surprised to find such a high pressure reading from recon, would have figured that he was vertically stacked from the satellite imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Looks like the various weather models were correct with the system not stacking up. Until that happens, I'm inclined to put more stock into the weaker solution of intensity guidance. This reminds me of the forecasting difficulties we had with Debby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 so much for my predictions. looks like a rainmaker for central america Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 so much for my predictions. looks like a rainmaker for central america your prediction wasn't going to pan out anyway.... NO way this thing was going to pull a "charley" like track... that's just wishcasting for a hurricane right there IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 at least its a nice looking 1007 mb TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Score it for the GFS, again. When GFS says weak and MX for days and days you can take to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 00Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 I'm never a fan of 5 or 6ºC spread between T and Td either. Yeah I bet there has been more of a dry air intrusion than satellite indicates. Evap cooling can help decouple the vortex and raise SLP. Now a CAT 2 can maintain it's intensity in this environment because it will produce a much stronger boundry layer flux, especially on the south side where Earnesto is only producing 20kt winds if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 This thing is like a crazy chick... It looks magnificent from far away, but you start looking under the hood and you find nothing but crazy. FWIW, WSI's RPM, 18z anyway, has Ernesto weakening some over the next 12 hours before becoming a bit more organized SE of Jamaica. It then makes a beeline for the YP. As others have mentioned, it's not vertically stacked, although it's trying, and is struggling to get through the "Graveyard" of the Caribbean. Looks like another "win" for the GFS, and other global models in the short-term, in picking this up. IMO, I wouldn't be surprised to see the convection die down over the next 12-18 hours before making a bit of a comeback late tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Recon still indicates Ernesto is not vertically stacked and is not intensifying. Sfc center is west of flight level center, which is likely west of the 500mb center. Until it becomes vertically aligned, it'll remain weak. However, once its able to align, watch out. It needs to slow down in order to strengthen, it's traveling too fast to strengthen too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Additionally, not only is the LLC out in front of the convection, but it's a very broad area of low pressure. Seems like the area of lowest pressure is about 40 miles in diameter with no clear center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Its almost funny how loose the LLC is. One could make an argument that its pretty open right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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