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Tropical Depression Ernesto - 35 mph - 1004 mb - W 14 mph


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Dry air trying to wrap into the core. Ironically western half of the CDO looks okay. Outflow has improved. All depends what the recon finds 1005MB 995MB? I'm betting 1005mb because the GFS and Euro told us so.

I'd go probably halfway in between the two.

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Recon still indicates Ernesto is not vertically stacked and is not intensifying. Sfc center is west of flight level center, which is likely west of the 500mb center. Until it becomes vertically aligned, it'll remain weak. However, once its able to align, watch out.

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Yeah I wasn't feeling good about the bursting pattern all day today, whereas yesterday I was feeling more optimistic because of the lack of bursting. The reason the burst is there in the first place is the tilt of the vortex, because when the vortex tilts, it focuses all the vertical motion all in one spot, away from the low level center.

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I'm never a fan of 5 or 6ºC spread between T and Td either.

Yeah I bet there has been more of a dry air intrusion than satellite indicates. Evap cooling can help decouple the vortex and raise SLP.

Now a CAT 2 can maintain it's intensity in this environment because it will produce a much stronger boundry layer flux, especially on the south side where Earnesto is only producing 20kt winds if that.

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This thing is like a crazy chick... It looks magnificent from far away, but you start looking under the hood and you find nothing but crazy.

FWIW, WSI's RPM, 18z anyway, has Ernesto weakening some over the next 12 hours before becoming a bit more organized SE of Jamaica. It then makes a beeline for the YP. As others have mentioned, it's not vertically stacked, although it's trying, and is struggling to get through the "Graveyard" of the Caribbean. Looks like another "win" for the GFS, and other global models in the short-term, in picking this up.

IMO, I wouldn't be surprised to see the convection die down over the next 12-18 hours before making a bit of a comeback late tomorrow.

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Recon still indicates Ernesto is not vertically stacked and is not intensifying. Sfc center is west of flight level center, which is likely west of the 500mb center. Until it becomes vertically aligned, it'll remain weak. However, once its able to align, watch out.

It needs to slow down in order to strengthen, it's traveling too fast to strengthen too much.

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