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Tropical Depression Ernesto - 35 mph - 1004 mb - W 14 mph


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ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE

ADT-Version 8.1.3

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----

Date : 04 AUG 2012 Time : 201500 UTC

Lat : 14:45:18 N Lon : 69:53:53 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax

4.1 / 987.6mb/ 67.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#

4.1 4.2 4.2

Center Temp : -65.8C Cloud Region Temp : -66.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC

Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT

Weakening Flag : OFF

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Suprised the NHC is still even mentioning the weaker models. Ernesto is strengthening and developing a really nice inner core now on satellite. It still has the warmest waters ahead of hit and will likely be a hurricane within a day and an honest chance at being a major in the western carribean.

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Meh...I wouldn't jump to conclusions yet.

There are still many things that are unwritten about this one.

The FIM represents the next generation in global dynamical models. Using an Icosahedral grid, it does a better job as capturing tight gradients in the model fields (like those typically observed with TCs and strong frontal boundaries). Its certainly a useful model to use in the tropics, although it might not be as finely tuned as the GFS.

http://fim.noaa.gov/internal/fimposter.apr21.jpg

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If the circulation center is directly under that recent burst of convection... yes Ernesto is probably intensifying at this time and is in good shape heading into the W Caribbean. However, its very difficult to tell if this is the case. Nearly all the global models suggest that its now when the llc will run out in front of the deeper convection. Until recon gets in, last light visible and microwave passes will reveal all. An earlier TRMM pass indicated the center was still on the edge of the deeper cirrus canopy so it wouldn't surprise me if thats still the case. I'm only expecting very slow developing if that's the case.

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As I recently found out in teletraining for initializing TC guidance, very little of the dropsonde information ends up being used by the operational GFS/NAM/GFDL/HWRF, unless it is close to the first guess from their previous run. This applies moreso to the core upper air obs than the peripheral obs, as the NCEP guidance (including the GFDL) makes cold-core assumptions regarding various aspects of the TC, so they simply can't use the information. That is supposed to change in 2014.

Does anyone know if there have been any dropsondes sampling the environment in the vicinity of Ernesto?

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