Floydbuster Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Meh...I wouldn't jump to conclusions yet. There are still many things that are unwritten about this one. LOL @ Florence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Ernesto looks like a healthy tropical cyclone, but it has YP written all over it. FIFY Uh, last I checked, the YP is Mexico... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 If this isn't a hurricane in 6 hours, Ill be extremely surprised. Outflow has managed to expand to the point where it's becoming absurd for a tropical storm. Buoy 5 degrees west of Ernesto is reporting a 1008mb pressure EDIT: Metric to English still is faulty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 04 AUG 2012 Time : 201500 UTC Lat : 14:45:18 N Lon : 69:53:53 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.1 / 987.6mb/ 67.4kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 4.1 4.2 4.2 Center Temp : -65.8C Cloud Region Temp : -66.0C Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT Weakening Flag : OFF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Suprised the NHC is still even mentioning the weaker models. Ernesto is strengthening and developing a really nice inner core now on satellite. It still has the warmest waters ahead of hit and will likely be a hurricane within a day and an honest chance at being a major in the western carribean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Ernesto does on satellite appear to be cycling into something that should be strengthening. Recon to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 Meh...I wouldn't jump to conclusions yet. There are still many things that are unwritten about this one. The FIM represents the next generation in global dynamical models. Using an Icosahedral grid, it does a better job as capturing tight gradients in the model fields (like those typically observed with TCs and strong frontal boundaries). Its certainly a useful model to use in the tropics, although it might not be as finely tuned as the GFS. http://fim.noaa.gov/internal/fimposter.apr21.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Buoy 5 degrees west of Ernesto is reporting a 1001mb pressure. Could be in the 993-999mb range. I just noticed that, that's insane figuring the last fix was 1005mb in of itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 I can only assume that the developing upper-level high has continued to expand right over the center since 18z. Crossing my fingers for an interesting six hour recon mission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Does anyone know if there have been any dropsondes sampling the environment in the vicinity of Ernesto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Does anyone know if there have been any dropsondes sampling the environment in the vicinity of Ernesto? Not today, next best option is the 12z soundings from this morning. http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/buildmap/reg_raob_build.php?map=mex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 I can only assume that the developing upper-level high has continued to expand right over the center since 18z. Crossing my fingers for an interesting six hour recon mission. Just came in. Beautiful anticyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsouth Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Buoy 5 degrees west of Ernesto is reporting a 1001mb pressure. Could be in the 993-999mb range. That's 1008mb, not 1001mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 That's 1008mb, not 1001mb. Was just going to post that. Apologies. 2012AUG04 211500 4.1 985.4/ +0.0 / 67.4 4.0 4.1 4.1 NO LIMIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 If the circulation center is directly under that recent burst of convection... yes Ernesto is probably intensifying at this time and is in good shape heading into the W Caribbean. However, its very difficult to tell if this is the case. Nearly all the global models suggest that its now when the llc will run out in front of the deeper convection. Until recon gets in, last light visible and microwave passes will reveal all. An earlier TRMM pass indicated the center was still on the edge of the deeper cirrus canopy so it wouldn't surprise me if thats still the case. I'm only expecting very slow developing if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Ernesto's getting that look! Yep! Ernesto has gone on a 6 year diet and promised to beef up. Soon to be a lean mean fighting machine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 As I recently found out in teletraining for initializing TC guidance, very little of the dropsonde information ends up being used by the operational GFS/NAM/GFDL/HWRF, unless it is close to the first guess from their previous run. This applies moreso to the core upper air obs than the peripheral obs, as the NCEP guidance (including the GFDL) makes cold-core assumptions regarding various aspects of the TC, so they simply can't use the information. That is supposed to change in 2014. Does anyone know if there have been any dropsondes sampling the environment in the vicinity of Ernesto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Ernesto does on satellite appear to be cycling into something that should be strengthening. Recon to come. Beautiful image, what is the link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 In the air 220430 1742N 06447W 9766 00337 0150 +248 +234 113020 021 /// /// 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Beautiful image, what is the link? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SAT_ATL/sat_24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Nightfall for Ernesto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Uh, last I checked, the YP is Mexico... Just being more specific, considering the difference in terrain between the Yucatan and the other parts of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Nightfall for Ernesto Awesome pic-- I'm going to use this on my afternoon blog entry. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Awesome pic-- I'm going to use this on my afternoon blog entry. Thank you! I can be useful every once and a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Last light of day showing hot towers going up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Awesome pic. Link please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Awesome pic. Link please? RAMMB 1km Floater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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