QVectorman Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 I'm not sure why this hasn't stregnthend. I trust that the GFS and Euro are smarter than me though. I would assume it has something to do with Ernesto being under the suppressive portion of the CCKW per the 0z analysis last night. Phil...your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 I see an area of rotation in front of the circulation, is that an eddy or is this less organized than it looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 I see an area of rotation in front of the circulation, is that an eddy or is this less organized than it looks That mid level eddy is strong enough to be any competition to the main center. It will soon be gobbled up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Lets all lean to the side of caution and not hype this storm too much. NHC only has this becoming a cat 1 hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 I've been looking at the water vapor recently and I noticed Ernesto seems to be virtually pushing what dry air is west of it out of it's way. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 I've been looking at the water vapor recently and I noticed Ernesto seems to be virtually pushing what dry air is west of it out of it's way. http://www.ssd.noaa....l/flash-wv.html yes take a look at the vid i posted a few pages back of Rita in the GOM strengthening with a ton of dry air all around. If there is no shear to push the dry air into the circulation then its not a big factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 The 12Z GFDL and HWRF quite weak, the 12Z Euro weak and well south into CA, the UKMET weak and south, GFS weak and south. The SHIP and LGEM are only models that get excited about this at all, frankly the preponderance of the evidence is against this thing being all that interesting and/or threatening the US. In other words a yawner probably. I hope I am wrong but that is the way it looks to me currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 I would assume it has something to do with Ernesto being under the suppressive portion of the CCKW per the 0z analysis last night. Phil...your thoughts? Keep in mind that was 00z last night and the suppressive portion of the CCKW is tilted as well, so the max divergence in the low-levels was ahead of the 200 hPa velocity potential portion (probably sometime yesterday ~12-24 hours before). While there is of course some risk of enhancement in the low-level flow (which is what both the GFS/ECMWF show), it should have already been occurring for 12+ hours. Considering this and the fact the storm has gotten better organized in that time, I don't think the suppressive portion of the CCKW is having a large impact on the system right now. There is another CCKW that is in the East Pacific currently that should interact with Ernesto in 48-72 hours, while the system is in the Western Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Lets all lean to the side of caution and not hype this storm too much. NHC only has this becoming a cat 1 hurricane. Who's been hyping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Keep in mind that was 00z last night and the suppressive portion of the CCKW is tilted as well, so the max divergence in the low-levels was ahead of the 200 hPa velocity potential portion (probably sometime yesterday ~12-24 hours before). While there is of course some risk of enhancement in the low-level flow (which is what both the GFS/ECMWF show), it should have already been occurring for 12+ hours. Considering this and the fact the storm has gotten better organized in that time, I don't think the suppressive portion of the CCKW is having a large impact on the system right now. There is another CCKW that is in the East Pacific currently that should interact with Ernesto in 48-72 hours, while the system is in the Western Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico. Good info. didn't know it was tilted that much. I was assuming the supressive part of the wave in this case does not hinder development but just "canceled" out other factors that would have strengthen it. So there isn't a net strengthening nor weakening, it just remains in a steady state as observed by Amped. And thanks for bringing up that next one in the Pacific I was going to ask you about that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Still puzzled why this system cannot up it's winds. Per ATCF, the pressure is down to 1001mbs. There are near ideal conditions for strengthening present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 LEK, good to see you posting. Any chance you'll be providing a forecast on Ernesto? I just got back from vacation...so I'm unpacking, spot checking some guidance.....probably tonight or tomorrow morning I'll throw out some entertainment for some.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 The intensity guidance is just bizarre. The different models don't always agree, but usually they trend in roughly the same direction, to varying degrees. With this one, some models are almost inverses of other ones. It's also weird to see the GFDL and HWRF so unenthused. Just... weird. What is up with this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 Good info. didn't know it was tilted that much. I was assuming the supressive part of the wave in this case does not hinder development but just "canceled" out other factors that would have strengthen it. So there isn't a net strengthening nor weakening, it just remains in a steady state as observed by Amped. And thanks for bringing up that next one in the Pacific I was going to ask you about that one. Yea thats one way you can look at it too. In all honesty, while the suppressed phase is showing up somewhat in the Velocity Potential kelvin filtered anomalies, its not quite as obvious in the TRMM kelvin filtered rainfall anomalies. Were it to be paired with the CCKW though, its already probably out in the Atlantic beyond the Lesser Antilles. You can see how the Kelvin wave nicely enhanced the rainfall with both Ernesto and Florence over the past few days. Note that we are looking at 10-15N so the signal doesn't show up as well since we are looking at the top portion of the kelvin wave. Still the most recent CCKW was strong enough to be picked up by this latitudinal band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 The intensity guidance is just bizarre. The different models don't always agree, but usually they trend in roughly the same direction, to varying degrees. With this one, some models are almost inverses of other ones. It's also weird to see the GFDL and HWRF so unenthused. Just... weird. What is up with this system? Weirdest storm I have seen in a while. HPC likes Mexico for it's final destination. 12z ECMWF re-develops Ernie in the EPAC after a MX landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 18Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 with the lack of shear ahead and super warm sst's ill go out on a limb and say ernesto will be a major cane before landfall on the yucatan. looks like the 18z models nudged north a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 The intensity guidance is just bizarre. The different models don't always agree, but usually they trend in roughly the same direction, to varying degrees. With this one, some models are almost inverses of other ones. It's also weird to see the GFDL and HWRF so unenthused. Just... weird. What is up with this system? Maybe the conditions are not as optimal as they could be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Maybe the conditions are not as optimal as they could be? What's puzzling to me is the contradictory nature of the different models; they're just all over the place. We have the "squashed spider" problem with Ernesto's intensity modeling that we had with Debby's track modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 What's puzzling to me is the contradictory nature of the different models; they're just all over the place. We have the "squashed spider" problem with Ernesto's intensity modeling that we had with Debby's track modeling. Note the consistency of which models are trending in which direction. It's the stat guidance all saying intensify and the dynamical guidance all saying weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 Note the consistency of which models are trending in which direction. It's the stat guidance all saying intensify and the dynamical guidance all saying weaker. It is worth noting that the ECMWF is the strongest its been with Ernesto since the TC developed. It does weaken it in the short term, but its actually now somewhat similar to the GFS developing taking a Ernesto into the YP and then into the Bay of Campeche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 @ 5pm Ernesto is back up to 60 mph and the NHC remains very uncertain about intensity. Recon at 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Got this off twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Ernesto looks like a healthy tropical cyclone, but it has Mexico written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 For the record: TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 500 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012 A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EARLIER THIS MORNING FOUND A WEAKER CYCLONE...BUT DURING THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER AROUND NOON...THE PLANE REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 1004 MB FROM 1008 MB...AND FOUND A BETTER DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. SINCE THAT TIME...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED WHICH IS NOT COMMON FOR A CYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. T-NUMBERS WERE 3.5 AND 3.0 AT 1800 UTC...AND OBJECTIVE NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 4.3 ON THE DVORAK SCALE DURING THE PAST HOUR. ON THIS BASIS...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN CONSERVATIVELY BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION... THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE PLANE COULD FIND STRONGER WINDS. AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...I DO NOT HAVE ANY REASONS TO FORECAST WEAKENING AS SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT... INCLUDING THE HWRF AND THE GFDL. THE SHEAR IS LOW AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND ERNESTO WILL MOVE OVER AN OCEAN WITH HIGHER HEAT CONTENT. GIVEN SUCH CONDITIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. ERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS...EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...RESULTING IN ERNESTO TURNING MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SOLUTION OF MOST THE GLOBAL MODELS...BRINGING ERNESTO OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT THIS TIME...THE NHC FORECAST DISREGARDS THE NORTHWARD TURN INDICATED BY THE GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 14.8N 70.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 15.2N 72.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 15.7N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 16.0N 79.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 16.5N 81.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 18.0N 84.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 19.5N 87.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 21.5N 90.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Ernesto looks like a healthy tropical cyclone, but it has Mexico written all over it. Ernesto looks like a healthy tropical cyclone, but it has YP written all over it. FIFY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Ernesto looks like a healthy tropical cyclone, but it has Mexico written all over it. Meh...I wouldn't jump to conclusions yet. There are still many things that are unwritten about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 so NHC says it will be a hurricane in 36 hours, admits it could even be one much sooner, and yet they track it west or wnw in line with the models that keep it an open wave or tropical storm? I can promise you that if the GFS or ECMWF were depicting a hurricane those models would send it into the weakness created by that huge digging trough in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 500 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012 ...ERNESTO RACING WESTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 70.1W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL MOVE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH OF JAMAICA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TODAY. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE POSSIBLE IN ARUBA...CURACAO...AND BONAIRE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.