gulfcane Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 5AM advisory in, 14.1N, 67.2W Speed 60MPH, track looks a bit south, not surprising with the model shift overnight, taking it to 90MPH at Landfall on the Yucatan yeh the NHC shifts it south a tad which is surprising because if they believe their own intensity forecast then ernesto would take a more northerly track. It would take a bold move to go against the models though so they decided to go with their own intensity guidance but use the models for the track. A stronger system will take a track similar to the 0z GFDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 yeh the NHC shifts it south a tad which is surprising because if they believe their own intensity forecast then ernesto would take a more northerly track. It would take a bold move to go against the models though so they decided to go with their own intensity guidance but use the models for the track. A stronger system will take a track similar to the 0z GFDL. not a surprise at all, most of the model guidence that they had has shifted south/west some. I have the opinion that the models overnight for the most part is pure garbage as most of them have Ernesto going into an open wave, and from what I see I wouldn't be shocked if the hurricane hunters on their second flight this evening finds it as a hurricane tonight... I'm leaning on the right side of the models right now, although not a meteorologist nor is this an actual forecast. Just my guess that the models are too far south/west and will likely shift some especially as it didn't have a lot of RECON data to work from last night, this morning/afternoon runs SHOULD have some better data in them and hopefully we'll get a better picture either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 HPC Morning Update: A MAJOR WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD IS THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME HURRICANE ERNESTO. THE 00Z GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE MOVES THE SYSTEM INTO CENTRAL AMERICA/BELIZE THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO BY NEXT WEEKEND /WELL SOUTH OF THE NHC FORECAST/ WHILE THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF MEMBERS MORE NORTHWARD...THREATENING AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. ENERGY MOVING DOWN FROM THE WESTERLIES THROUGH THE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND FRACTURING AS IT RETROGRADES UNDER THE BASE OF THE WARM CORE RIDGE /THE USUAL WAY UPPER LOWS IN THE SUBTROPICS AND TROPICS DEVELOP/ COULD EASILY LURE ERNESTO FARTHER NORTHWARD...SO KEPT WITH CONTINUITY FROM THE 17Z COORDINATION CALL BETWEEN NHC/HPC AND MOVED ERNESTO TOWARDS NORTHEAST MEXICO TO STAY WELL WITHIN THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SPREAD BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND VERA CRUZ STATE AS POSSIBLE LANDFALL POINTS ALONG THE GULF COAST BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK...ALL OF WHICH ARE POSSIBLE IF AN UPPER LOW DROPS OUT OF THE WESTERLIES INTO/THROUGH THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND INTERACTS WITH ERNESTO LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...THE STORM CLEARLY HAS OPTIONS REGARDING ITS ULTIMATE PATH THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 not a surprise at all, most of the model guidence that they had has shifted south/west some. I have the opinion that the models overnight for the most part is pure garbage as most of them have Ernesto going into an open wave, and from what I see I wouldn't be shocked if the hurricane hunters on their second flight this evening finds it as a hurricane tonight... I'm leaning on the right side of the models right now, although not a meteorologist nor is this an actual forecast. Just my guess that the models are too far south/west and will likely shift some especially as it didn't have a lot of RECON data to work from last night, this morning/afternoon runs SHOULD have some better data in them and hopefully we'll get a better picture either way. It's not going to be a hurricane tonight. The microwave shows the structure much better than the AVN does, and it doesn't look quite up to par. I am quite baffled as to why the globals almost unanimously decouple the system and slam it into Belize. I don't see obvious signs why it would, but obviously the next 24-48 hours are key, especially as this passes between Hispaniola and S. America. As a side note, the location of Ernesto relative to the ULL's to its northeast and northwest are favorable for outflow channel development in the coming days. This has the potential to become a significant hurricane down the road if all goes right, but I can't go against the globals. Something's gotta give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 Here are my extensive morning thoughts. You might be surprised by my first forecast. I'm going bearish the first 48 hours than extremely bullish thereafter. My major concern is that I'm too conservative in the first 48 hours. http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2012/08/04/ernesto-getting-better-organized-td-6-develops-invest-91l-along-the-florida-coastline/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Here are my extensive morning thoughts. You might be surprised by my first forecast. I'm going bearish the first 48 hours than extremely bullish thereafter. My major concern is that I'm too conservative in the first 48 hours. http://philstropical...rida-coastline/ Very nice graphic-- looks very professional. I'm freaked out by that angle of approach when it nears the Yucatan. It screams "nail-biter". Can you adjust it to a more WNW heading, please? Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Will this one finally break the curse of Ernestos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Here are my extensive morning thoughts. You might be surprised by my first forecast. I'm going bearish the first 48 hours than extremely bullish thereafter. My major concern is that I'm too conservative in the first 48 hours. http://philstropical...rida-coastline/ Yeah I guess it depends on how strong this gets. I could see your track given the slight weakness in the Gulf, especially if it gets strong. That's high octane fuel as it gets past Jamaica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Nice cold tops this morning http://www.daculaweather.com/4_natl_avn_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 am impressed Ernesto has survived and is doing as well as it is given the environment wasn't the greatest yesterday morning. It did not look that good yesterday at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Here are my extensive morning thoughts. You might be surprised by my first forecast. I'm going bearish the first 48 hours than extremely bullish thereafter. My major concern is that I'm too conservative in the first 48 hours. http://philstropical...rida-coastline/ I don't think this is a bad forecast...I'd probably bump it 10 mph at 48 and 72 hrs, 5 mph at 96, down 10 at 120 (land) but track is pretty close to what I could see it do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Here are my extensive morning thoughts. You might be surprised by my first forecast. I'm going bearish the first 48 hours than extremely bullish thereafter. My major concern is that I'm too conservative in the first 48 hours. http://philstropical...rida-coastline/ I could certainly see something like this happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Wind/Wave map shows 23 foot seas in 72 hours http://www.daculaweather.com/4_tropical_graphical.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 Radar out of the Netherlands Antilles in the ABC islands. http://www.meteo.an/SatRadarImages/Img_Radar_ABC_Cappi_Loop.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 FWIW, the 06Z GFS likes a Cozumel/Cancun strike crossing the Yucatan on WNW into Tampico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 FWIW, the 06Z GFS likes a Cozumel/Cancun strike crossing the Yucatan on WNW into Tampico. Interesting. So that would be a bit of a bump N for the GFS, wouldn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 I would say that Ernesto will be headed for the Yucatan, as the trough in the East won't be deep enough to turn him through the Yucatan Channel. A piece of the STR will still extend westward through the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 So the Phil Phorecast says the GFDL scores the coup and extended beyond the end of the forecast period this would be a Northern Gulf thread? It seems an outlier, but Phil has documented the apparent issues of the globals. I, of course, as an amateur, can't do better. I will say, for the sake of gas prices, I think most people would prefer the Yucatan/Tampico Mexico two step. Nothing personal, just hope that forecast busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Aircraft just North of Ernesto now, will soon have a better handle on actual intensity. I hope. I wonder why there is no NOAA WP-3D missions tasked, with an Ernesto mission scrubbed for 91L, which looks in no hurry to develop this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Just as an illustration, I want to show you all how the ECMWF decoupled the low/mid level circulations. It appears the surface circulation just slips out to the north while the 500 hPa lags behind. Give the recent Satellite trends, I think this is an unlikely solution now. That's a great graphic, Phil....thanks for the time to compose and share it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 HPC Morning Update: A MAJOR WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD IS THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME HURRICANE ERNESTO. THE 00Z GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE MOVES THE SYSTEM INTO CENTRAL AMERICA/BELIZE THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO BY NEXT WEEKEND /WELL SOUTH OF THE NHC FORECAST/ WHILE THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF MEMBERS MORE NORTHWARD...THREATENING AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. ENERGY MOVING DOWN FROM THE WESTERLIES THROUGH THE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND FRACTURING AS IT RETROGRADES UNDER THE BASE OF THE WARM CORE RIDGE /THE USUAL WAY UPPER LOWS IN THE SUBTROPICS AND TROPICS DEVELOP/ COULD EASILY LURE ERNESTO FARTHER NORTHWARD...SO KEPT WITH CONTINUITY FROM THE 17Z COORDINATION CALL BETWEEN NHC/HPC AND MOVED ERNESTO TOWARDS NORTHEAST MEXICO TO STAY WELL WITHIN THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SPREAD BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND VERA CRUZ STATE AS POSSIBLE LANDFALL POINTS ALONG THE GULF COAST BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK...ALL OF WHICH ARE POSSIBLE IF AN UPPER LOW DROPS OUT OF THE WESTERLIES INTO/THROUGH THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND INTERACTS WITH ERNESTO LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...THE STORM CLEARLY HAS OPTIONS REGARDING ITS ULTIMATE PATH THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 800 AM ADT SAT AUG 04 2012 AT 8 AM ADT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA. $$ FORECASTER AVILA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 If the aircraft was doing a center fix, the 850 mb center is farther West than the big blob, West of 68º, and fairly weak, about 1008mb. But I could be seriously wrong. Edit- not quite as weak as I thought, but indeed a little West of where I would have assumed from satellite. 000 URNT12 KNHC 041147 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012 A. 04/11:34:40Z B. 14 deg 22 min N 067 deg 53 min W C. 850 mb 1475 m D. 36 kt E. 005 deg 43 nm F. 107 deg 41 kt G. 011 deg 65 nm H. 1006 mb I. 18 C / 1524 m J. 22 C / 1525 m K. 10 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 134 / 08 O. 0.02 / 3 nm P. AF309 0405A ERNESTO OB 03 MAX FL WIND 41 KT N QUAD 11:13:30Z MAX FL TEMP 22 C 322 / 13 NM FROM FL CNTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsouth Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Despite the impressive satellite presentation, system is not quite vertically stacked, so no intensification yet. Time will tell if the low/mid level centers can get lined up today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 P001 seems to always provide porn to those looking for the hype-ist storms....or at least it seems that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Here are my extensive morning thoughts. You might be surprised by my first forecast. I'm going bearish the first 48 hours than extremely bullish thereafter. My major concern is that I'm too conservative in the first 48 hours. http://philstropical...rida-coastline/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 ATCF reduced Ernesto's wind by 5 knots, pressure went up 5 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Recon is finding that Ernesto is weaker than what it's satellite presentation may depict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 The 37 GHz overpass shows a cyan ring... While the storm has filled by 5mb, this is an indicator that the storm should RI within 24 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 13:02Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309) Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012 Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 4 Observation Number: 07 A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 12:29:20Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°19'N 68°05'W (14.3167N 68.0833W) B. Center Fix Location: 312 miles (502 km) to the SSE (157°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,477m (4,846ft) at 850mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 200° at 29kts (From the SSW at ~ 33.4mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 51 nautical miles (59 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the north quadrant at 11:13:30Z Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 34kts (~ 39.1mph) in the northwest quadrant at 12:56:00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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