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Tropical Depression Ernesto - 35 mph - 1004 mb - W 14 mph


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5AM advisory in, 14.1N, 67.2W

Speed 60MPH, track looks a bit south, not surprising with the model shift overnight, taking it to 90MPH at Landfall on the Yucatan

yeh the NHC shifts it south a tad which is surprising because if they believe their own intensity forecast then ernesto would take a more northerly track. It would take a bold move to go against the models though so they decided to go with their own intensity guidance but use the models for the track. A stronger system will take a track similar to the 0z GFDL.
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yeh the NHC shifts it south a tad which is surprising because if they believe their own intensity forecast then ernesto would take a more northerly track. It would take a bold move to go against the models though so they decided to go with their own intensity guidance but use the models for the track. A stronger system will take a track similar to the 0z GFDL.

not a surprise at all, most of the model guidence that they had has shifted south/west some. I have the opinion that the models overnight for the most part is pure garbage as most of them have Ernesto going into an open wave, and from what I see I wouldn't be shocked if the hurricane hunters on their second flight this evening finds it as a hurricane tonight... I'm leaning on the right side of the models right now, although not a meteorologist nor is this an actual forecast. Just my guess that the models are too far south/west and will likely shift some especially as it didn't have a lot of RECON data to work from last night, this morning/afternoon runs SHOULD have some better data in them and hopefully we'll get a better picture either way.

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HPC Morning Update:

A MAJOR WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD IS THE SYSTEM EXPECTED

TO BECOME HURRICANE ERNESTO. THE 00Z GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC

GUIDANCE MOVES THE SYSTEM INTO CENTRAL AMERICA/BELIZE THROUGH THE

BAY OF CAMPECHE TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO BY NEXT WEEKEND /WELL

SOUTH OF THE NHC FORECAST/ WHILE THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE

BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF MEMBERS MORE

NORTHWARD...THREATENING AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHWEST AND

NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. ENERGY MOVING DOWN FROM THE WESTERLIES

THROUGH THE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND FRACTURING AS IT

RETROGRADES UNDER THE BASE OF THE WARM CORE RIDGE /THE USUAL WAY

UPPER LOWS IN THE SUBTROPICS AND TROPICS DEVELOP/ COULD EASILY

LURE ERNESTO FARTHER NORTHWARD...SO KEPT WITH CONTINUITY FROM THE

17Z COORDINATION CALL BETWEEN NHC/HPC AND MOVED ERNESTO TOWARDS

NORTHEAST MEXICO TO STAY WELL WITHIN THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.

WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SPREAD BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND

VERA CRUZ STATE AS POSSIBLE LANDFALL POINTS ALONG THE GULF COAST

BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK...ALL OF WHICH ARE POSSIBLE IF AN UPPER LOW

DROPS OUT OF THE WESTERLIES INTO/THROUGH THE NORTHWEST GULF OF

MEXICO AND INTERACTS WITH ERNESTO LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE

WEEKEND...THE STORM CLEARLY HAS OPTIONS REGARDING ITS ULTIMATE

PATH THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. STAY TUNED.

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not a surprise at all, most of the model guidence that they had has shifted south/west some. I have the opinion that the models overnight for the most part is pure garbage as most of them have Ernesto going into an open wave, and from what I see I wouldn't be shocked if the hurricane hunters on their second flight this evening finds it as a hurricane tonight... I'm leaning on the right side of the models right now, although not a meteorologist nor is this an actual forecast. Just my guess that the models are too far south/west and will likely shift some especially as it didn't have a lot of RECON data to work from last night, this morning/afternoon runs SHOULD have some better data in them and hopefully we'll get a better picture either way.

It's not going to be a hurricane tonight. The microwave shows the structure much better than the AVN does, and it doesn't look quite up to par.

I am quite baffled as to why the globals almost unanimously decouple the system and slam it into Belize. I don't see obvious signs why it would, but obviously the next 24-48 hours are key, especially as this passes between Hispaniola and S. America. As a side note, the location of Ernesto relative to the ULL's to its northeast and northwest are favorable for outflow channel development in the coming days. This has the potential to become a significant hurricane down the road if all goes right, but I can't go against the globals. Something's gotta give.

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Here are my extensive morning thoughts. You might be surprised by my first forecast. I'm going bearish the first 48 hours than extremely bullish thereafter. My major concern is that I'm too conservative in the first 48 hours.

http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2012/08/04/ernesto-getting-better-organized-td-6-develops-invest-91l-along-the-florida-coastline/

qnr8nk.png

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Here are my extensive morning thoughts. You might be surprised by my first forecast. I'm going bearish the first 48 hours than extremely bullish thereafter. My major concern is that I'm too conservative in the first 48 hours.

http://philstropical...rida-coastline/

Very nice graphic-- looks very professional.

I'm freaked out by that angle of approach when it nears the Yucatan. It screams "nail-biter". Can you adjust it to a more WNW heading, please? Thx.

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Here are my extensive morning thoughts. You might be surprised by my first forecast. I'm going bearish the first 48 hours than extremely bullish thereafter. My major concern is that I'm too conservative in the first 48 hours.

http://philstropical...rida-coastline/

qnr8nk.png

Yeah I guess it depends on how strong this gets. I could see your track given the slight weakness in the Gulf, especially if it gets strong. That's high octane fuel as it gets past Jamaica.

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Here are my extensive morning thoughts. You might be surprised by my first forecast. I'm going bearish the first 48 hours than extremely bullish thereafter. My major concern is that I'm too conservative in the first 48 hours.

http://philstropical...rida-coastline/

I don't think this is a bad forecast...I'd probably bump it 10 mph at 48 and 72 hrs, 5 mph at 96, down 10 at 120 (land) but track is pretty close to what I could see it do.

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So the Phil Phorecast says the GFDL scores the coup and extended beyond the end of the forecast period this would be a Northern Gulf thread?

It seems an outlier, but Phil has documented the apparent issues of the globals. I, of course, as an amateur, can't do better. I will say, for the sake of gas prices, I think most people would prefer the Yucatan/Tampico Mexico two step. Nothing personal, just hope that forecast busts.

slp21.png

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Just as an illustration, I want to show you all how the ECMWF decoupled the low/mid level circulations. It appears the surface circulation just slips out to the north while the 500 hPa lags behind. Give the recent Satellite trends, I think this is an unlikely solution now.

Euro_Combo.gif

That's a great graphic, Phil....thanks for the time to compose and share it.

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HPC Morning Update:

A MAJOR WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD IS THE SYSTEM EXPECTED

TO BECOME HURRICANE ERNESTO. THE 00Z GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC

GUIDANCE MOVES THE SYSTEM INTO CENTRAL AMERICA/BELIZE THROUGH THE

BAY OF CAMPECHE TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO BY NEXT WEEKEND /WELL

SOUTH OF THE NHC FORECAST/ WHILE THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE

BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF MEMBERS MORE

NORTHWARD...THREATENING AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHWEST AND

NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. ENERGY MOVING DOWN FROM THE WESTERLIES

THROUGH THE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND FRACTURING AS IT

RETROGRADES UNDER THE BASE OF THE WARM CORE RIDGE /THE USUAL WAY

UPPER LOWS IN THE SUBTROPICS AND TROPICS DEVELOP/ COULD EASILY

LURE ERNESTO FARTHER NORTHWARD...SO KEPT WITH CONTINUITY FROM THE

17Z COORDINATION CALL BETWEEN NHC/HPC AND MOVED ERNESTO TOWARDS

NORTHEAST MEXICO TO STAY WELL WITHIN THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.

WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SPREAD BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND

VERA CRUZ STATE AS POSSIBLE LANDFALL POINTS ALONG THE GULF COAST

BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK...ALL OF WHICH ARE POSSIBLE IF AN UPPER LOW

DROPS OUT OF THE WESTERLIES INTO/THROUGH THE NORTHWEST GULF OF

MEXICO AND INTERACTS WITH ERNESTO LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE

WEEKEND...THE STORM CLEARLY HAS OPTIONS REGARDING ITS ULTIMATE

PATH THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. STAY TUNED.

post-32-0-76260600-1344081592_thumb.gif

post-32-0-57379200-1344081601_thumb.gif

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012

800 AM ADT SAT AUG 04 2012

AT 8 AM ADT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

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If the aircraft was doing a center fix, the 850 mb center is farther West than the big blob, West of 68º, and fairly weak, about 1008mb. But I could be seriously wrong.

Edit- not quite as weak as I thought, but indeed a little West of where I would have assumed from satellite.

000

URNT12 KNHC 041147

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012

A. 04/11:34:40Z

B. 14 deg 22 min N

067 deg 53 min W

C. 850 mb 1475 m

D. 36 kt

E. 005 deg 43 nm

F. 107 deg 41 kt

G. 011 deg 65 nm

H. 1006 mb

I. 18 C / 1524 m

J. 22 C / 1525 m

K. 10 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 134 / 08

O. 0.02 / 3 nm

P. AF309 0405A ERNESTO OB 03

MAX FL WIND 41 KT N QUAD 11:13:30Z

MAX FL TEMP 22 C 322 / 13 NM FROM FL CNTR

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 13:02Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)

Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012

Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 4 seeall.png

Observation Number: 07

A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 12:29:20Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°19'N 68°05'W (14.3167N 68.0833W) viewmap.png

B. Center Fix Location: 312 miles (502 km) to the SSE (157°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,477m (4,846ft) at 850mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 200° at 29kts (From the SSW at ~ 33.4mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 51 nautical miles (59 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the north quadrant at 11:13:30Z

Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 34kts (~ 39.1mph) in the northwest quadrant at 12:56:00Z

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