HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 A degreed, somewhat well know met, 54 minutes ago, posted on social media he still likes Euro/GFS weak and South for Ernesto, and convective flareup is simply dry air entrainment and we'll be amazed how badly Ernesto looks tomorrow. On the plus side, he thinks TD #6 may be a player for the ECUSA. Ugh, give me a break. It's the first time I've ever heard him go bearish on anything, and of course he is-- because it's not a threat to his i-95 audience, so there's no commercial reason to inflate the threat (like he usually does). And then he goes and suggests that a TD currently at the Cape Verde Islands might threaten his viewership. It is so stupid, it defies comment. As usual, he adds nothing to a tropical discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 GFS says no deepening until BOC. Then it deepens quickly in the BOC at 850mb at least before a second landfall just north of where Karl made landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Haha you kinda changed what he said a little by leaving out key words. He said it COULD be dry air entrainment but will see what it is when recon flys in this morning.. It included a link so people could see what he wrote. There was no intent to distort what he said. And GFS looks fairly good near/maybe tad South of Tampico for i-Cyclone team... Edit- not a JB hater. Was an AccuWx subscriber, and a lot of his ideas, teleconnections and Winter weather stuff, was written to make sense to us amateurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 Can we please refrain from posting anything about JB. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Can we please refrain from posting anything about JB. Thanks. Agreed-- he isn't in any way relevant to a discussion about tropical cyclones. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Agreed-- he isn't in any way relevant to a discussion about tropical cyclones. Thank you. How many days until the dedicated chase thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 TNCC PW is 1.4", TTTP is 2.4".TSDM is 1.7". 1.4 is rather dry. This calls for a CIMSS TPW loop. Ernesto seems to be in its own environment, in my amateur opinion, and recalling a paper written by a now finished Miami PhD for his Master's, environmental dry air isn't all that terribly limiting if there isn't a fair amount of shear to force it into the center. I, personally, as an amateur, am glass 9/16th optimistic Ernesto will maintain, at the very least, for the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 I must say, I am fairly impressed with the resiliency of Ernesto. Last night at this time I thought it was a goner. Not only did it battle back today, but its upper level outflow is beginning to become established to the west of the system for the first time. The westward progression of the convection as well as banding features developing on both the SE and NW flanks of the system leads me to believe the system is improving in organization tonight. A recent ASCAT pass while missing most of the storm, confirms the system has a surface circulation well embedded in the convection. I know I've been poo-pooing this storm for the last day given my concerns with the low-level easterly flow, but I did allude to the chance that a stronger system could put up a fighting chance against this rapidly moving low-level flow. The storm is still moving fast, but it seems that the developing outflow from the recent burst of convection overnight may have been enough to allow the upper level flow to catch up. Most of the dyamical models have prevailing easterly upper level flow that should not negate the outflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 Another thing that was probably overlooked is the fact that Ernesto slowed down quite substantially in the last 24 hours. Last night at this time it was moving at 24 mph! Its down to a much more manageable 18 mph. The deeper convection tonight has helped to slow down the surface circulation and become better aligned with the mid-level center, which threatened to decouple with Ernesto yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 I'm wondering what might happen if the presently disorganized system in the Bahamas moves nw across Florida westward along the upper Gulf as a minimal tropical storm. With the incoming mid and upper trough from the nw this might possibly serve to turn Ernesto through the Yucatan channel. From then on it's anybody's guess. What if it followed a similar track Wilma took? Thought it was heading straight for Texas and instead slammed the Yucatan and destroyed half of south Florida.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 What if it followed a similar track Wilma took? Thought it was heading straight for Texas and instead slammed the Yucatan and destroyed half of south Florida.. Highlighted the important part, and the chances of that are very, very low at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 @RyanMaue: GFDL 00z races Ernesto into southern Gulf as a major/monster hurricane. http://t.co/ASRCatGq http://t.co/2JvHNGyZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 @RyanMaue: GFDL 00z races Ernesto into southern Gulf as a major/monster hurricane. http://t.co/ASRCatGq http://t.co/2JvHNGyZ Josh's reaction to this should interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Maue is losing credibility with the Joe B. type of sensationalism. It's a shame.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 @RyanMaue: GFDL 00z races Ernesto into southern Gulf as a major/monster hurricane. http://t.co/ASRCatGq http://t.co/2JvHNGyZ Lovely,,, GFDL creating another Katrina/Rita in the southern GOM.... Looking at the animation I think it would want to track towards LA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 I'm trying to remember the last system, as a hurricane, that the center split the goal posts between the Yucatan and Cuba? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 TNCC PW is 1.4", TTTP is 2.4".TSDM is 1.7". 1.4 is rather dry. This calls for a CIMSS TPW loop. Ernesto seems to be in its own environment, in my amateur opinion, and recalling a paper written by a now finished Miami PhD for his Master's, environmental dry air isn't all that terribly limiting if there isn't a fair amount of shear to force it into the center. I, personally, as an amateur, am glass 9/16th optimistic Ernesto will maintain, at the very least, for the next couple of days. Watch that youtube click of Rita at the 1:33 mark. See all that dry air around it? No shear so it couldn't get into the circulation and disrupt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 I'm trying to remember the last system, as a hurricane, that the center split the goal posts between the Yucatan and Cuba? Ivan did, abit barely.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 ECMWF almost immediately decouples the low-level circulation with the 500 hPa circulation by 24 hours. Until recon makes a definitive center fix, I can't completely discount the ECMWF solution, but its looking increasingly unlikely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 06Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 0z GFS ensembles show a 3-some. CA/MX/TX. Take your pick. I like dissent. And NHC bumped winds to 50kt and pressure down to 1001mb on the run of 6z run of BAMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 GFDL major hurricane central GOM. HWRF- system dissipates before getting to central America. Euro also dissipates it. This is one tricky intensity forecast to be sure...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 ECMWF almost immediately decouples the low-level circulation with the 500 hPa circulation by 24 hours. Until recon makes a definitive center fix, I can't completely discount the ECMWF solution, but its looking increasingly unlikely at this point. Its pretty hard for me to believe the euro given the satellite trends. Looks like a well organized, strengthening tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 Its pretty hard for me to believe the euro given the satellite trends. Looks like a well organized, strengthening tropical storm. Radar out of San Juan may have just clipped the northern circulation center of Ernesto. Defiantly some hot towers on the edge there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 Finally got a good TRMM pass. Looks like that convective feature on radar is the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 Just as an illustration, I want to show you all how the ECMWF decoupled the low/mid level circulations. It appears the surface circulation just slips out to the north while the 500 hPa lags behind. Give the recent Satellite trends, I think this is an unlikely solution now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 so I take it based off of what your seeing right now, your leaning towards the right side of the forecast guidance??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 so I take it based off of what your seeing right now, your leaning towards the right side of the forecast guidance??? I'm working on a track map so you will see in a moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Nice graphic. Latest IR shows a strengthening system... perhaps it could reach hurricane status by tomorrow night? I think it should certainly be a strong tropical storm. Convection is really wrapping around the center and blossoming. Hopefully it isn't cursed by Ernesto '06... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 5AM advisory in, 14.1N, 67.2W Speed 60MPH, track looks a bit south, not surprising with the model shift overnight, taking it to 90MPH at Landfall on the Yucatan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.