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Tropical Depression Ernesto - 35 mph - 1004 mb - W 14 mph


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A degreed, somewhat well know met, 54 minutes ago, posted on social media he still likes Euro/GFS weak and South for Ernesto, and convective flareup is simply dry air entrainment and we'll be amazed how badly Ernesto looks tomorrow.

On the plus side, he thinks TD #6 may be a player for the ECUSA.

Ugh, give me a break. It's the first time I've ever heard him go bearish on anything, and of course he is-- because it's not a threat to his i-95 audience, so there's no commercial reason to inflate the threat (like he usually does).

And then he goes and suggests that a TD currently at the Cape Verde Islands might threaten his viewership. It is so stupid, it defies comment.

As usual, he adds nothing to a tropical discussion.

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Haha you kinda changed what he said a little by leaving out key words. He said it COULD be dry air entrainment but will see what it is when recon flys in this morning..

It included a link so people could see what he wrote. There was no intent to distort what he said.

And GFS looks fairly good near/maybe tad South of Tampico for i-Cyclone team...

Edit- not a JB hater. Was an AccuWx subscriber, and a lot of his ideas, teleconnections and Winter weather stuff, was written to make sense to us amateurs.

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TNCC PW is 1.4", TTTP is 2.4".TSDM is 1.7". 1.4 is rather dry.

This calls for a CIMSS TPW loop. Ernesto seems to be in its own environment, in my amateur opinion, and recalling a paper written by a now finished Miami PhD for his Master's, environmental dry air isn't all that terribly limiting if there isn't a fair amount of shear to force it into the center. I, personally, as an amateur, am glass 9/16th optimistic Ernesto will maintain, at the very least, for the next couple of days.

latest72hrs.gif

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I must say, I am fairly impressed with the resiliency of Ernesto. Last night at this time I thought it was a goner. Not only did it battle back today, but its upper level outflow is beginning to become established to the west of the system for the first time. The westward progression of the convection as well as banding features developing on both the SE and NW flanks of the system leads me to believe the system is improving in organization tonight.

A recent ASCAT pass while missing most of the storm, confirms the system has a surface circulation well embedded in the convection.

I know I've been poo-pooing this storm for the last day given my concerns with the low-level easterly flow, but I did allude to the chance that a stronger system could put up a fighting chance against this rapidly moving low-level flow. The storm is still moving fast, but it seems that the developing outflow from the recent burst of convection overnight may have been enough to allow the upper level flow to catch up. Most of the dyamical models have prevailing easterly upper level flow that should not negate the outflow.

2usuedh.jpg

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Another thing that was probably overlooked is the fact that Ernesto slowed down quite substantially in the last 24 hours. Last night at this time it was moving at 24 mph! Its down to a much more manageable 18 mph. The deeper convection tonight has helped to slow down the surface circulation and become better aligned with the mid-level center, which threatened to decouple with Ernesto yesterday.

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I'm wondering what might happen if the presently disorganized system in the Bahamas moves nw across Florida westward along the upper Gulf as a minimal tropical storm. With the incoming mid and upper trough from the nw this might possibly serve to turn Ernesto through the Yucatan channel. From then on it's anybody's guess.

What if it followed a similar track Wilma took? Thought it was heading straight for Texas and instead slammed the Yucatan and destroyed half of south Florida..

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What if it followed a similar track Wilma took? Thought it was heading straight for Texas and instead slammed the Yucatan and destroyed half of south Florida..

Highlighted the important part, and the chances of that are very, very low at this point.

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TNCC PW is 1.4", TTTP is 2.4".TSDM is 1.7". 1.4 is rather dry.

This calls for a CIMSS TPW loop. Ernesto seems to be in its own environment, in my amateur opinion, and recalling a paper written by a now finished Miami PhD for his Master's, environmental dry air isn't all that terribly limiting if there isn't a fair amount of shear to force it into the center. I, personally, as an amateur, am glass 9/16th optimistic Ernesto will maintain, at the very least, for the next couple of days.

Watch that youtube click of Rita at the 1:33 mark. See all that dry air around it? No shear so it couldn't get into the circulation and disrupt it.

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ECMWF almost immediately decouples the low-level circulation with the 500 hPa circulation by 24 hours. Until recon makes a definitive center fix, I can't completely discount the ECMWF solution, but its looking increasingly unlikely at this point.

Its pretty hard for me to believe the euro given the satellite trends. Looks like a well organized, strengthening tropical storm.

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Nice graphic.

Latest IR shows a strengthening system... perhaps it could reach hurricane status by tomorrow night? I think it should certainly be a strong tropical storm. Convection is really wrapping around the center and blossoming. Hopefully it isn't cursed by Ernesto '06...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html

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