Snow_Miser Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Shear is not an issue going forward. SHIPS diagnosed the shear at 4kts at 0z and I concur with that. Is the shear decreasing over Ernesto because of an anticyclone over the system? If so, that is good news for Ernesto's prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Partial eyewall beginning to form? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Shes gettin purrdy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 I wouldn't be surprised if NHC calls it 60 or 65 MPH on the next advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Shes gettin purrdy. I have to upload that same image for posterity, except from NRL, superior color scale shows some -78 to near -80ºC cloud tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 I wouldn't be surprised if NHC calls it 60 or 65 MPH on the next advisory. 49 knots/999mb per CIMSS ADT, would be higher but for 0.7T number/six hour intensification limit. I have no idea how well computer/auto Dvorak does without an eye... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 ernesto fought back like a champ today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 I could see NHC going 60 at 11, wish we had that full recon data to confirm what we have out there, still Ernesto's looking a LOT better than I honestly figured it would be right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 ernesto fought back like a champ today. Totally. This system has defied expectations from the start. Even when it was just an disturbance, I was calling it "The Little Invest That Could". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Sorry Analog... still 50 mph at 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Totally. This system has defied expectations from the start. Even when it was just an disturbance, I was calling it "The Little Invest That Could". Maybe this version of Ernesto is wanting to break that curse on the name... Quite a fighter out there that's for sure, gonna be damaging to somebody for sure, just who is the question... this one's a real watcher for the Gulf coast, and not to play speculative here, it might be a good idea for everyone to keep the gas tanks full for POSSIBLE price spikes in gas next week... however if there is a positive if it hits the gulf coast, it SHOULD bring in a lot of moisture to the midwest and mid south that DESPERATELY needs it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012 CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AN ABBREVIATED HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SUGGEST THAT THIS HAS NOT YET RESULTED IN INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA. ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER ERNESTO...AND THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. A STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE OLD TRACK DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A DEVELOPING MID/ UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM 72-120 HR... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THE GFDL... UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS RESPOND TO THIS BY FORECASTING ERNESTO TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST ERNESTO TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO RESPOND TO THE WEAKNESS...AND THUS SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OR CENTRAL AMERICA. BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT ERNESTO WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND STRONG ENOUGH TO RESPOND TO THE WEAKNESS...THE LATTER PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY DIVERGENT. THE STATISTICAL- DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...WITH THE LGEM CALLING FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 96 HR. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS OFFER A DISSENTING VIEW...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF PREDICTING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL ABOUT 96 HR. IN ADDITION...THE ECMWF FORECASTS ERNESTO TO REMAIN VERY WEAK. IT IS UNCLEAR WHAT ARE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SEEING...SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AFTER 24 HR AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER THAT...IT IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE DIVERGENT GUIDANCE. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO...AS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND ON SATURDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 13.9N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 14.2N 67.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 14.7N 71.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 15.4N 74.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 16.1N 77.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 17.5N 82.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 19.5N 85.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 22.0N 88.9W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER BEVEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Pretty-much status quo with the 11 pm EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Ernesto looking rather sexy than 2009.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Pretty-much status quo with the 11 pm EDT. might have just a smidge of a more NW turn at the end of the forecast track but pretty much yeah, think the shortened Hurricane Hunter mission led to it being status quo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Maybe this version of Ernesto is wanting to break that curse on the name... Quite a fighter out there that's for sure, gonna be damaging to somebody for sure, just who is the question... this one's a real watcher for the Gulf coast, and not to play speculative here, it might be a good idea for everyone to keep the gas tanks full for POSSIBLE price spikes in gas next week... however if there is a positive if it hits the gulf coast, it SHOULD bring in a lot of moisture to the midwest and mid south that DESPERATELY needs it. im starting to think if ernesto survives it will be an eastern gulf threat and may make a rather sharp ne turn in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 I'm wondering what might happen if the presently disorganized system in the Bahamas moves nw across Florida westward along the upper Gulf as a minimal tropical storm. With the incoming mid and upper trough from the nw this might possibly serve to turn Ernesto through the Yucatan channel. From then on it's anybody's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 I'm wondering what might happen if the presently disorganized system in the Bahamas moves nw across Florida westward along the upper Gulf as a minimal tropical storm. With the incoming mid and upper trough from the nw this might possibly serve to turn Ernesto through the Yucatan channel. From then on it's anybody's guess. Funny, because a few models actually think that system near Fl might do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 assuming it survives i think a charley like path isnt out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Video Update on Ernesto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Gotta give Ernesto some props today despite dire predictions by the Euro and GFS. The stronger he becomes, the greater chance he hold his own into the strait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 I'm wondering what might happen if the presently disorganized system in the Bahamas moves nw across Florida westward along the upper Gulf as a minimal tropical storm. With the incoming mid and upper trough from the nw this might possibly serve to turn Ernesto through the Yucatan channel. From then on it's anybody's guess. I don't even think it'll need to become tropical for the weakness to be increased to be honest, WAY too soon to say for sure what happens, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 assuming it survives i think a charley like path isnt out of the question. What makes you say this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Pretty amazed at the structure of Ernesto right now, considering the dire nature of the situation earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 A degreed, somewhat well know met, 54 minutes ago, posted on social media he still likes Euro/GFS weak and South for Ernesto, and convective flareup is simply dry air entrainment and we'll be amazed how badly Ernesto looks tomorrow. On the plus side, he thinks TD #6 may be a player for the ECUSA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 GFS still has the storm weak and moves it west into the southern Yucatan, but based on the current sat pics it is already wrong on the intensity so this brings this forecast into serious question. EDIT- that being said, the NHC forecast is probably too aggressive with the intensity. I expect something in between the far northerly track shown by by the GFDL/HWRF and the far south track of the GFS. Intensity? a tough call, but it may eventually become a hurricane if it can avoid going over too much land in MX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 A degreed, somewhat well know met, 54 minutes ago, posted on social media he still likes Euro/GFS weak and South for Ernesto, and convective flareup is simply dry air entrainment and we'll be amazed how badly Ernesto looks tomorrow. On the plus side, he thinks TD #6 may be a player for the ECUSA. Haha you kinda changed what he said a little by leaving out key words. He said it COULD be dry air entrainment but will see what it is when recon flys in this morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.