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Tropical Depression Ernesto - 35 mph - 1004 mb - W 14 mph


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Totally. :)

This system has defied expectations from the start. Even when it was just an disturbance, I was calling it "The Little Invest That Could".

Maybe this version of Ernesto is wanting to break that curse on the name... Quite a fighter out there that's for sure, gonna be damaging to somebody for sure, just who is the question... this one's a real watcher for the Gulf coast, and not to play speculative here, it might be a good idea for everyone to keep the gas tanks full for POSSIBLE price spikes in gas next week... however if there is a positive if it hits the gulf coast, it SHOULD bring in a lot of moisture to the midwest and mid south that DESPERATELY needs it.

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012

1100 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES AND AN ABBREVIATED HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SUGGEST THAT

THIS HAS NOT YET RESULTED IN INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB IS

BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA. ANALYSIS FROM

CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER ERNESTO...AND THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED IN

THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. A

STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO

SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT

36-48 HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE OLD TRACK

DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES

LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A DEVELOPING MID/

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM 72-120 HR...

WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE THE

NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THE GFDL...

UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS RESPOND TO THIS BY FORECASTING ERNESTO TO

MOVE NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF

OF MEXICO. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST ERNESTO

TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO RESPOND TO THE WEAKNESS...AND THUS SHOW THE

CYCLONE MOVING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OR

CENTRAL AMERICA. BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT ERNESTO WILL BE FAR

ENOUGH NORTH AND STRONG ENOUGH TO RESPOND TO THE WEAKNESS...THE

LATTER PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE

NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY DIVERGENT. THE STATISTICAL-

DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...WITH THE

LGEM CALLING FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 96 HR. THE

DYNAMICAL MODELS OFFER A DISSENTING VIEW...WITH THE GFDL AND

HWRF PREDICTING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL ABOUT 96 HR. IN

ADDITION...THE ECMWF FORECASTS ERNESTO TO REMAIN VERY WEAK. IT IS

UNCLEAR WHAT ARE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE

SEEING...SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AFTER 24 HR AND

THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM. THE NEW INTENSITY

FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE PREVIOUS

FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER THAT...IT IS THE SAME AS THE

PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE DIVERGENT GUIDANCE.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO...AS A

TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND ON

SATURDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 13.9N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH

12H 04/1200Z 14.2N 67.9W 50 KT 60 MPH

24H 05/0000Z 14.7N 71.3W 55 KT 65 MPH

36H 05/1200Z 15.4N 74.8W 55 KT 65 MPH

48H 06/0000Z 16.1N 77.9W 60 KT 70 MPH

72H 07/0000Z 17.5N 82.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

96H 08/0000Z 19.5N 85.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

120H 09/0000Z 22.0N 88.9W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

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Maybe this version of Ernesto is wanting to break that curse on the name... Quite a fighter out there that's for sure, gonna be damaging to somebody for sure, just who is the question... this one's a real watcher for the Gulf coast, and not to play speculative here, it might be a good idea for everyone to keep the gas tanks full for POSSIBLE price spikes in gas next week... however if there is a positive if it hits the gulf coast, it SHOULD bring in a lot of moisture to the midwest and mid south that DESPERATELY needs it.

im starting to think if ernesto survives it will be an eastern gulf threat and may make a rather sharp ne turn in the GOM.

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I'm wondering what might happen if the presently disorganized system in the Bahamas moves nw across Florida westward along the upper Gulf as a minimal tropical storm. With the incoming mid and upper trough from the nw this might possibly serve to turn Ernesto through the Yucatan channel. From then on it's anybody's guess.

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I'm wondering what might happen if the presently disorganized system in the Bahamas moves nw across Florida westward along the upper Gulf as a minimal tropical storm. With the incoming mid and upper trough from the nw this might possibly serve to turn Ernesto through the Yucatan channel. From then on it's anybody's guess.

Funny, because a few models actually think that system near Fl might do that.

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I'm wondering what might happen if the presently disorganized system in the Bahamas moves nw across Florida westward along the upper Gulf as a minimal tropical storm. With the incoming mid and upper trough from the nw this might possibly serve to turn Ernesto through the Yucatan channel. From then on it's anybody's guess.

I don't even think it'll need to become tropical for the weakness to be increased to be honest, WAY too soon to say for sure what happens,

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GFS still has the storm weak and moves it west into the southern Yucatan, but based on the current sat pics it is already wrong on the intensity so this brings this forecast into serious question.

EDIT- that being said, the NHC forecast is probably too aggressive with the intensity. I expect something in between the far northerly track shown by by the GFDL/HWRF and the far south track of the GFS. Intensity? a tough call, but it may eventually become a hurricane if it can avoid going over too much land in MX.

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A degreed, somewhat well know met, 54 minutes ago, posted on social media he still likes Euro/GFS weak and South for Ernesto, and convective flareup is simply dry air entrainment and we'll be amazed how badly Ernesto looks tomorrow.

On the plus side, he thinks TD #6 may be a player for the ECUSA.

Haha you kinda changed what he said a little by leaving out key words. He said it COULD be dry air entrainment but will see what it is when recon flys in this morning..

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