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Tropical Depression Ernesto - 35 mph - 1004 mb - W 14 mph


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BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012

500 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE

WINDWARD ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.2N 49.0W

ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR

BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR

ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR

MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA

* ST. LUCIA

* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE

PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE

WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST. THE

DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30

KM/H...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME

FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST

TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE NEAR THE

WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...

AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON

THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA

ON FRIDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

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For the record:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012

500 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012

DURING THE DAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL

CIRCULATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF

THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. DEEP CONVECTION

HAS PULSED A BIT...AND IS SOMEWHAT LACKING OVER THE NORTHERN PART

OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM HAS NOW ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT

ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE

INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK

ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE IS

ALWAYS A CHALLENGE...AND IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IN THIS CASE.

MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW

TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM FOR

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS

ANTICIPATED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATER

ON...THE INTENSITY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. OUR BEST TWO

GLOBAL MODELS ARE AT ODDS AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AS IT

MOVES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS FORECASTS THE UPPER-LEVEL

ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING BY THE END

OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS THE SYSTEM

DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS

TOWARD TO THE GFS...BUT TIME WILL TELL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/16. GLOBAL MODELS

DEPICT A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN

SHOULD CAUSE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE

SAME SPEED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAKNESS OVER

THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD CAUSE SOME SLOWING AND BIT OF A

NORTHWESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN

GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE

MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 12.2N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 02/0600Z 12.7N 51.3W 40 KT 45 MPH

24H 02/1800Z 13.3N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

36H 03/0600Z 13.8N 57.7W 50 KT 60 MPH

48H 03/1800Z 14.4N 60.9W 55 KT 65 MPH

72H 04/1800Z 15.5N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

96H 05/1800Z 16.5N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

120H 06/1800Z 17.5N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE

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For the record:

That is quite an agressive forecast by the NHC. While I have been in support of the GFS's solution over the ECMWF (and thus far it has prevailed) I am still very concerned over the next 24-48 hours as the storm will continue to be under moderate westerly shear. If we get a surge of low level easterlies over the Lesser Antillies and West Caribbean, it could easily cause vortex decoupling. However, the CCKW might be able to negate this potential by increasing the divergent outflow as it passes by TD5, and maybe that is why the GFS is hanging on to the TC while in the Western Caribbean the last few model cycles.

It is also worth noting that the 12z ECMWF has come much more in line with the slow and somewhat more southerly solution the first 24 hours or so of the forecast. However, in the medium range, it starts to diverge again from the GFS and take the system further north. Its short term self correction, however, might be pointing toward the correct solution.

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I'm going to throw some cold water on you: Keep in mind that this storm's name will be Ernesto... a very much cursed name in terms of development.

;)

Has anyone ever done a Lameness Index of the unretired storm names? Some sort of weighted scale based on the maximum S-S category or windspeed of each storm with the name?

I know Ernesto is up there but there are a bunch of A & B names that have to be worse

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Has anyone ever done a Lameness Index of the unretired storm names? Some sort of weighted scale based on the maximum S-S category or windspeed of each storm with the name?

I know Ernesto is up there but there are a bunch of A & B names that have to be worse

This year's name list is full of disappointment.

Florence? Gordon? Helene? yawnnn

I'm eager for 2014. Hurricane Fernand. Or 2015, Hurricane Gonzalo.

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I'm still very uneasy about this one. It has to have an impressive DMAX to have a prayer to survive tomorrow.

Any resemblance of a Chris (2006), Ernesto (2006), or Tomas...and I'm out.

Very weary of pathetic systems.

EDIT: Really liking the new inner-nest of the HWRF.

Just my personal opinion, but I think what will likely become Ernesto will get sheared a lot more than currently forecasted. Its asymmetrical appearance isn't to my liking. :(

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Stewart comes through again with a nice 11 pm EDT Discussion.

BY DAYS 4 AND 5...MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE WARMER CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT.

Yep, things look better once around Jamaica longitude...it should slow down a bit then, and under the influence of a decent anticyclone...and most probably steered by zonal ridging....could be one of those whose trajectory is very clear cut and with good model support...but even those can throw a screwball or two

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Classic behavior for a tropical depression approaching the islands, vertical wind shear in the easterly trade winds is killing it. Really curious that the NHC discussion doesn't mention vertical wind shear when it's probably the biggest issue right now. I smell a bust at least in the short term, but this could become something later on.

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