Superstorm93 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Blah... looks like this might follow right in the foot steps of ernesto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Blah... looks like this might follow right in the foot steps of ernesto. Come on now, we aren't calling stuff like this at this timeframe, are we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Come on now, we aren't calling stuff like this at this timeframe, are we? Just not ready for another ernesto like performance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Come on now, we aren't calling stuff like this at this timeframe, are we? It's how you show how cool and detached you are. Ideally, though, you proclaim an AEW over Ethiopia a "fish." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Just not ready for another ernesto like performance... The setup is actually looking like an Ernesto Redux... Once again the same TUTT we talked about all of last week will still be in the same position at 92L slides by to the south. And in addition, we have another CCKW that will likely be swinging through the same region. Rinse repeat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Ernesto redux? This better not develop then. Conditions seem marginal for development. Shear and dry air will be the main focus over the next 5 days though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 The setup is actually looking like an Ernesto Redux... Once again the same TUTT we talked about all of last week will still be in the same position at 92L slides by to the south. And in addition, we have another CCKW that will likely be swinging through the same region. Rinse repeat! Thought so...wow thats just to much for me.GFS and Euro have that impressive wave about to roll of the African coastline fishing but still plenty of time for that to change though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Southern tracks are somewhat intriguing...the island hopping/Shredderola tracks on the other hand...this is assuming shear and whatnot don't kill this outright before then of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Impressive. Would be TS if it was over water. Fighting the Saharah air because the northern part is in the actual Sahara. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 0Z and 6Z GFS very Ernesto-ish on 92L, except it actually does die in the Caribbean just before the resolution chop both runs. African monster wave looking good through 192 hours, may just be beginning to recurve on 6Z GFS at 192. Despite running fairly high, almost 20ºN across. Ensembles show flat zonal flow at 240, obviously smoothed, but even resolution chopped GFS at 240 shows fairly flat flow over the Atlantic downstream of a big closed low at 500 mb over the lakes. Big African wave at that point is close to the Westerlies on Op GFS, but still coming Westward. Op Euro has African wave pulled up to near 25º well East of the islands, but I think trough is going to leave it behind. It'd be hard to come another 20 plus degrees West at that latitude because it would get caught by anything. So GFS says there is a chance African wave is a player ECUSA, Euro says probably not. But I am maintaining my glass 7/32nds full natural optimism for something affecting NYC or SNE subforums in about two weeks. At least close enough for another Cape Cod wave watching party. Glad someone chased Ernesto, doesn't look like anything obvious into preferred sub-30ºN sweet spot next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Global hazards from the CPC is depicitng a fairly active MDR over the next few weeks. Should be ineresting regardless of future tracks. Sent from my 4G 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Global hazards from the CPC is depicitng a fairly active MDR over the next few weeks. Should be ineresting regardless of future tracks. Sent from my 4G 2 I agree the ITCZ/MDR will be active the next few weeks, but the large scale dynamics don't look to be favorable until the last 10-12 days of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 I agree the ITCZ/MDR will be active the next few weeks, but the large scale dynamics don't look to be favorable until the last 10-12 days of the month Absolutely. Hate to mention the long range GFS, but it has some pretty decent signals that the MDR will be the place to watch for the last two weeks of August. Not a fan of how the main activity seems to be in the northern portion of the MDR though. Things will more than likely change by that time anyway. Regardless, we are approaching the peak of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 92L is still organizing a bit, but not too optimistic about it yet. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Hi all- My real-time multivariate MJO phase space diagram finally suggests that the MJO is entering RMM phase with a sufficient amplitude. RMM phase 1 is associated with anomalous African easterly wave activity (we are observing that), increased convection over the East Pacific and African regions, and increased potential for Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis and hurricanes. It should be noted that RMM phase 3 is the statistically the most favorable RMM phase for genesis, however RMM phase 2 is still a favorable phase for genesis. That being said, we might expect a continuation of enhanced Atlantic tropical cyclone activity through mid August, with conditions quieting down a bit towards the latter half of August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 92L is still organizing a bit, but not too optimistic about it yet. With globals having done a decent job w/ Ernesto, and w/ globals not at all enthusiastic on 92L's fate once in the Caribbean, I myself must temper my natural optimism as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 With globals having done a decent job w/ Ernesto, and w/ globals not at all enthusiastic on 92L's fate once in the Caribbean, I myself must temper my natural optimism as well. New GFS still has 92L approaching islands as a healthy system, probably a named storm, and approaching the Yucatan near death... What will probably be 93L in a day and a half slowly gains latitude until the resolution reduction such that recurve seems likely, but not recurved yet at 8 days. If 92L doesn't completely die, per GFS at the chop, a weak system could start gaining latitude based on forecast 850 mb and 700 mb flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 UAlbany/NCAR Real-Time Atlantic Basin AHW EnKF Ryan D. Torn Pretty good analysis products on this page. Thought I'd share since things could get active soon. On another note, the GFS ensembles are in excellent agreement of a strong area of low pressure coming off of Africa in the short term. Not even going to touch the long range for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 that wave over africa is gigantic http://yfrog.com/nxvwnbvj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Anyone think this is going to come off of Africa farther south than the GFS shows, the possible low I'm seeing over Africa seems to be near 12N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Another interesting thing on the 12Z GFS is how the remnants of Florence hang on as a visible disturbance on the GFS. It's possible it could bring some weather to Bermuda in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 92L is continuing to slowly organize today. Weak convection is situated over the surface low with some pretty good low level motion. Not really a fan of the stratus deck to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Three day image of the African wave. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?BASIN=CONUS&SUB_BASIN=focus_regions&AGE=Latest®ION=AFRICA&SECTOR=NorthWest&PRODUCT=vis_ir_background&SUB_PRODUCT=meteo8&SIZE=Thumb&PATH=AFRICA/NorthWest/vis_ir_background/meteo8&ANIM_TYPE=Instant&DISPLAY=Single&CURRENT=20120808.1200.msg_2.visir.bckgr.AFRICA_NorthWest.DAY.jpg& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 New Euro isn't into the Caribbean and death like prior runs and 12Z GFS and CMC for 92L. Much weaker than Big African Wave, Both would appear to fish per Euro 240 hour position and East Coast trough. The GFS and Canadian would seem to at least give 92L a chance to gain latitude into the Gulf, if there is anything left to gain latitude. At least they'll probably be action, hopefully 3.5 storms, 2 hurricanes, and 1 majors worth. GFS, GFS Ensembles and Bias Corrected Euro MJO all look reasonably optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 I'm in the Bahamas tomorrow through next Wednesday. All I ask is for 92L to not ruin my vacation. Gordon-to-be can do whatever he wants after "wheels down" next Wednesday afternoon. (And, yes, it's all about me.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Please not another Ernesto. Do not ever want to see such perfect upper level conditions like that go to waste again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Nice Fujiwhara on the Euro between 92L and the African wave after they develop and 92L reaches the northern Islands. Wildly divergent from the GFS on 92L's future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 92L is continuing to slowly organize today. Weak convection is situated over the surface low with some pretty good low level motion. Not really a fan of the stratus deck to the NW. Oughta be a cherry, IMHO, looking at same image with lat/longs on, awfully close to being a closed low. NHC obviously disagrees, and are the paid experts. I don't even see 12Z GFDL/HWRF guidance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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